This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
San Antonio Spurs, vs. Memphis Grizzlies: This should naturally be one of the "grindiest" games of the night, as both defenses are of superior quality and have stymied the opposing offense in the past. While the Grizzlies have come out on top in both prior meetings this season, I'm giving the Spurs defense the edge Thursday based on the fact they'll be at home and out for a bit of redemption. The Grizzlies have also shown they can struggle to score points from time to time, and accordingly, they're coming off a game in which they managed just 82 points against an average Pelicans defense. The Spurs are yielding just 98.6 points per game (second-lowest in the NBA) as well and have held an impressive trio of offenses—the Hawks, Warriors and Timberwolves – to under 100 points within the last six games, with two of those contests at home.
Offense To Use
Brooklyn Nets, vs. Phoenix Suns: The Trail Blazers are also a solid candidate for this spot, as they'll face a Knicks team on the second game of a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. That said, the Nets look highly appealing in their own right, as they face a Suns squad in the midst of a five-game losing streak and on the fourth game of an East Coast swing. The Nets are actually hot by their standards, as they've racked up five wins in March and already pounded this same Phoenix team for 122 points in their previous meeting this season. The Suns should score their fair share in this game as well, but I give Brooklyn the edge at home as they try to notch consecutive wins for the first time in nearly a calendar year.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Nets, Suns
Second game of a back-to-back: Knicks
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. NY ($9,800): Lillard looks like the clear-cut choice to pay up for Thursday, considering he's scored between 44.25 and 62.75 fantasy points in the last four games, is averaging 43.1 fantasy points at home this season and faces a Knicks squad giving up the tenth-most fantasy points (51.3) to point guards over the last 10 games, along with the fifth-most assists (9.0) on the season. Lillard scored 39.8 fantasy points against New York in his one prior game against them this season and although his price has come up, his recent play and matchup against a team playing their third game in four nights make him worth the investment.
Jeremy Lin, BKN vs. PHO ($5,600): On the higher end of the mid-tier and in this same matchup, teammates Tyler Ulis ($7,100) and Devin Booker ($6,800) are certainly worthy of consideration, although the former's price has risen significantly. Meanwhile, Lin (ankle) is listed as probable for Thursday's contest, but if he were to unexpectedly miss, his replacement Spencer Dinwiddie ($4,900) would get the nod in this spot instead. Either player will face a Suns defense that's surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points (55.5) to point guards on the season and the most (61.0) over the last five games. They also yield the most points (26.0) and three-pointers (2.8) to the position on the season, and fourth-highest field-goal percentage (44.7). Lin had scored between 25 and 37.5 fantasy points in the eight games prior to getting hurt on Sunday versus the Mavs, with that range representing a solid-to-excellent return at his reduced price.
Randy Foye, BKN vs. PHO ($3,700): There are actually numerous candidates listed $4,000 and under that could be serviceable in the sense of providing a potential 5x return, including Yogi Ferrell ($4,000), Patty Mills ($3,900), Norman Powell ($3,500), Jonathon Simmons ($3,500), Manu Ginobili ($3,400), Leandro Barbosa ($3,200) and for a real deep dart throw, Archie Goodwin ($3,100) facing off against his old Suns teammates. However, Foye is another Nets backcourt member that could profit from facing the vulnerable Phoenix defense, as they've surrendered a robust 44.4 fantasy points per game to two-guards, along with the seventh-most points (21.8). Foye has scored over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games and a respectable 16.75 and 18.25 in the other two games during that stretch. He's shooting a solid 44.1 percent from the field and excellent 52.6 percent from three-point range over that span, and certainly has a chance to keep his hot hand going Thursday.
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs. MEM ($9,200): Blake Griffin ($8,200) is a solid pivot at the upper tier if you need to save Thursday, although the Mavs have been tough on power forwards all season. Leonard is certainly not in the easiest matchup himself, but did score 36.75 fantasy points last Saturday against the Grizzlies and is averaging 44.3 fantasy points at home this season. He's come back down to earth a bit after a stretch to start March where he scored between 54.75 and 69.5 fantasy points in five of seven games, but has also seen his price drop $800 since Sunday, making him more palatable despite the tough matchup.
Marquese Chriss, PHO at BKN ($5,800): For those who can afford to spend up in this tier, T.J. Warren ($7,000) is in the best matchup in the league for small forwards, James Johnson ($7,000) is up against his old Raptors squad that will be without Serge Ibaka down low and Kristaps Porzingis ($6,900) is priced to move and in the midst of a great stretch of play. That said, for those needing the savings, Chriss is an excellent value option, considering he appears to have really hit his stride in recent games. The rookie has scored between 26.75 and 42.25 fantasy points in the last four games and between 22.5 and 32.0 fantasy points in three other contests during the last 10. He'll face off against a Nets squad that he scored 24.3 fantasy points against in just 18 minutes earlier this season, and that's given up the second-most fantasy points (51.0) to power forwards on the season.
Patrick Patterson, TOR at MIA ($3,600): Noah Vonleh ($3,800) also makes for a viable play at this level, while Tony Allen ($3,700) sports a price below what it should be given production, but he's questionable with a knee injury and could see a lot of Kawhi Leonard's defense if he does play. Meanwhile, Patterson could well draw the start or see a notable minutes bump with Serge Ibaka (suspension) out for Thursday's matchup, and faces off against a Heat squad that's given up the fourth-highest field-goal percentage (48.6) to power forwards this season. Patterson has proven capable of offering solid production across the stat sheet and has been over 20 fantasy points in three of the last 10 despite coming off the bench. While expectations should be tempered, he should be a bit more involved offensively than usual Thursday.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. NY ($7,600): There's two highly appealing options above and below Nurkic on Thursday in Hassan Whiteside ($8,300) and Brook Lopez ($6,900), with the latter seemingly underpriced by a few hundred dollars relative to recent production. For those who wish to go in a different direction, Nurkic holds great appeal in his own right. He's scored between 37.5 and 44.25 fantasy points in his last four contests and has double-doubles in two straight. He's sporting a 26.5 percent usage rate over the last 10 games (second only to Damian Lillard's 31 percent over that span) and is averaging a team-high 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in that stretch as well. The Knicks were just steamrolled by Rudy Gobert for 63 fantasy points on Wednesday and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points (53.3) to centers on the season and second-most (66.1) over the last five games.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at MIA ($5,200): Alan Williams ($5,700) is also very much a consideration at this level but checks into Thursday questionable with an illness. Meanwhile, Valanciunas is averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and sports a 20.8 percent usage rate with Serge Ibaka (suspension) off the floor this season. He's also averaged 23.9 fantasy points over the last five games and is averaging a solid 23.6 fantasy points in two games against the Heat this season. Valanciunas has also been over 30 fantasy points thrice and over 40 in another game over the last eight contests, offering a glimpse at his upside. Miami has given up a healthy 50.7 fantasy points to centers on the season and 53.5 fantasy points to the position over the last five games.
Alex Len, PHO at BKN ($4,500): Willy Hernangomez ($4,700) is definitely a pivot worth considering at this level as well, as his price is particularly low even with his current reserve role. However, Len continues to start and could even see more run than usual if Alan Williams (illness) is forced to miss a second straight game. Even though Williams has been getting more pub, Len has quietly been smashing value recently, as he's scored 33.5 and 33.75 fantasy points, respectively, in two of his last three games. He also scored 28.8 fantasy points in his one previous meeting with the Nets this season and Brooklyn checks in giving up the fifth-most fantasy points (52.8) to centers on the season, along with 21.5 points, 14.8 rebounds and the fourth-most blocks (2.4) as well.
INJURY REPORT
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