This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
The Hawks have elevated their season numbers to the point that they now rank seventh in defensive efficiency and eighth in opponent points per game. Looking at just their past 10 games, those numbers improve to first and fourth, respectively. During that span they rank among the top three in the league in forced turnovers, opponent field-goal percentage and opponent three-point field-goal percentage. They also rank seventh for fewest assists allowed per game. The Hawks have officially arrived as a scary defense that daily gamers should make a point of avoiding.
Offenses to Use
Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks
There are plenty of very bad defenses to target Thursday – specifically the Knicks, Lakers and Kings. This section will focus on the Knicks, not necessarily because they are the worst of the bunch (if forced to choose, I'd give that title to the Lakers), but because they face the strongest offense. In their last 10, the Knicks are allowing a league-worst 108 points per game. During that span they rank fifth worst in defensive efficiency, while the Raptors rank fourth in offensive efficiency. The Raptors are riding a nine-game winning streak, and six of those wins came against possible or probable playoff teams. The Raptors have only seven games left before Toronto hosts the All-Star game, and five of those – including Thursday's against the Knicks – are against teams with sub-.500 records.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: Bucks, Knicks, Lakers
Second game: Hawks, Nuggets
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Toney Douglas, NOP vs SAC ($3,600): The Pelicans have been plagued by injuries all season, and after the latest wave, including Anthony Davis (concussion), the new rotation has featured Douglas in a prominent role. In his past two games, he has averaged 25 minutes and totaled a combined 32 points and 65.5 fantasy points, yet his salary is still near the minimum. On paper, at least, this appears to be one of the best values available at any position.
Other suggestions: Jrue Holiday*, NO vs SAC ($6,700); Mike Conley, MEM vs MIL ($6,200); Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN at WAS ($5,800);
* This recommendation is only if Tyreke Evans (knee) does not play.
Shooting Guard
Terrence Ross, TOR vs. NYK ($4,000): Ross' salary is low enough that all we need from him is roughly 20 fantasy points. He has played at least 22 minutes in five straight games, and scored at least 12 points and at least 17 fantasy points in all of them. He is averaging 3.2 threes per game and shooting above 50 percent from the field during that stretch. Ross is a points-based sharpshooter, which is a great fit for daily games, since his natural skill set leads to production in the more predictable fantasy categories. Ross is on a hot streak right now, and on Thursday he faces a bad defense that is particularly struggling to defend beyond the arc – in their last 10 games, the Knicks are second-worst in the league against the three.
Other suggestions: Khris Middleton, MIL at MEM ($7,200); Gary Harris, DEN at WAS ($4,600);
Small Forward
Otto Porter, WAS vs. DEN ($6,400): Porter is not my top choice among small forwards Thursday, as I feel better about Alonzo Gee or Lance Thomas. Rather, Porter is the recommendation that warrants extra explanation. Porter still struggles with inconsistency, posting duds a little more often than makes me comfortable. One the other hand, he sees a very consistent workload, playing at least 30 minutes in nine of his last 10 games, and he left the 10th game early due to injury. And his non-duds tend to be strong and profitable fantasy lines. He totaled more than 30 fantasy points in seven of those 10 games, and one of the other three was that injury-shortened game against the Bucks. Since his return, he's scored 15 points in consecutive games against the Celtics and the Raptors, both of whom boast significantly better defenses than the Nuggets, Porter's Thursday opponent.
Other suggestions: Alonzo Gee, NO vs SAC ($4,100); Lance Thomas*, NYK at TOR ($4,000)
* This recommendation is only if Carmelo Anthony (knee) does not play.
Power Forward
Bobby Portis, CHI at LAL ($3,500): This is a major gamble. In his last two games combined, Portis has only played 16 minutes, scored four points, grabbed four rebounds and netted eight fantasy points. Again, that's two games combined. But Nikola Mirotic (appendix) totaled 32 points, 14 rebounds and 61 fantasy points in 47 minutes in those games, and he's now out until after the All-Star break. This, combined with Joakim Noah's recent shoulder surgery, and the Bulls have major holes to fill in their frontcourt. When given minutes, Portis can be a beast. In 24 minutes against the Warriors last week he had 16 points, eight rebounds and 28 fantasy points – a daily games jackpot at his salary. The problem – and this is a really important problem – is that we still don't know how many, if any, of Mirotic's vacated minutes will go to Portis. It's logical to assume that Portis will benefit, but the Bulls do have other options. Big risk, but big potential for reward.
Other suggestions: Paul Millsap, ATL at IND ($8,300); Jabari Parker, MIL at MEM ($5,300);
Center
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at NOP ($5,100): Over his last five games, Cauley-Stein has become an important cog in the Kings' rotation, averaging 32 minutes per game, shooting 22-for-38 (58 percent) from the field and averaging 10.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. His salary is moving, but it has not yet fully adjusted to his newfound productivity.
Other suggestions: Greg Monroe, MIL at MEM ($7,000); Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs NYK ($6,100)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Mike Dunleavy, F, CHI (back)
Kirk Hinrich, G, CHI (quadriceps)
Nikola Mirotic, F, CHI (illness)
Joffrey Lauvergne, F, DEN (toe)
Jameer Nelson, G, DEN (wrist)
Rodney Stuckey, G, IND (ankle)
Jordan Adams, G, MEM (knee)
Brandan Wright, F, MEM (knee)
John Henson, F, MIL (back)
Greivis Vasquez, G, MIL (ankle)
Eric Gordon, G, NO (finger)
Cleanthony Early, F, NY (knee)
Duje Dukan, F, SAC (leg)
Rudy Gay, F, SAC (eye)
Eric Moreland, F, SAC (foot)
DeMarre Carroll, F, TOR (knee)
Alan Anderson, G, WAS (ankle)
Kris Humphries, F, WAS (knee)
Game-Time Decision
E'Twaun Moore, G, CHI (hamstring)
Derrick Rose, G, CHI (hamstring)
Kobe Bryant, G, LAL (shoulder)
Julius Randle, F, LAL (leg)
Lou Williams, G, LAL (illness)
O.J. Mayo, G, MIL (hamstring)
Anthony Davis, F, NO (concussion)
Tyreke Evans, G, NO (knee)
Carmelo Anthony, F, NY (knee)
Kyle Lowry, G, TOR (wrist)
Bradley Beal, G, WAS (nose)
