This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
POR at CHA (pick 'em)
UTA at MIL (-1.5), O/U: 225
DET at BKN (-13), O/U 216
HOU at LAL (-12), O/U 224
The matchup between the Hornets and Blazers represents my favorite on the slate to target. The Blazers play at the fastest pace in the league entering today and Charlotte isn't far behind at sixth. The total for the contest isn't yet posted at time of drafting, but presumably it will be the highest one. Add in that the game should be close and star minutes pushed up and it has the makings of a favorable fantasy spot.
Utah and Milwaukee could be similar in that both sides rank in the top half of pace. However, it becomes slightly less appealing with the Bucks on the back end of a back-to-back.
Those two matchups will be the primary areas I'll be looking to roster high-salaried stars, filling in with value from the other two.
In terms of more general roster construction, Sunday's slate appears to be a place to build a well-rounded roster rather than stars and scrubs. I don't love the spots for most of the stars, but do like several mid-value players (more on that later).
Injuries to Monitor
Tony Snell (foot): Probable
Snell has yet to play this season, but appears likely for his debut. His return could chip into the minutes of Nassir Little, though Snell could be on a minutes limit or just be put into a minimal offensive role. Either way, Little appears in line to lose his recent status as a nice value play.
Terry Rozier (ankle): Probable
Rozier has been sidelined for four games, which has given Kelly Oubre a chance to start. Oubre has posted decent fantasy numbers over that span with 12.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist and 1.0 steals, but has been horribly inefficient (37.5 FG%, 57.1 FT%) and would likely lose out on playing time.
Mike Conley (knee); Rudy Gay (heel)
Conley was held out on Saturday on the front end of a back-to-back. He should return and take away minutes from Jordan Clarkson (who saw a season-high 29 minutes) and Joe Ingles (season-high 32 minutes).
Gay could also return today, which would cut into Royce O'Neale's minutes. O'Neale is a good player, but this shouldn't be an issue considering he's not especially fantasy relevant.
Jrue Holiday (ankle)
Holiday is not expected to play Sunday, which should give continued opportunity to George Hill. Hill remains a decent value option at point guard (see below).
Donte DiVincenzo (ankle): Out
DiVincenzo should also remain out, which will continue to give Grayson Allen minutes. Allen is a decent cash option because he consistently has returned roughly 5X value, but has yet to top 30 DK points and therefore carries minimal upside.
Brook Lopez (back); Bobby Portis (rest)
Though Lopez is likely out, there's no fantasy impact as Thanasis Antetokounmpo entered the starting lineup and produced little in 18 minutes. In Lopez's absence, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the team's primary big and in turn allows wings Jordan Nwora the potential for more playing time. However, the return of Bobby Portis is likely to muddle this playing time situation and largely makes it one to avoid.
Paul Millsap (personal): Out; Nicolas Claxton (illness): Out
Millsap has been ruled out for personal reasons. Blake Griffin may be the most obvious candidate to benefit, but he's produced next to nothing this season. Bruce Brown's chance to rack up fantasy points should increase while DeAndre' Bembry could be a punt play to consider.
Kevin Porter (ankle): Questionable; Danuel House (ankle): Out
Porter appears likely to play through his ankle issue, minimizing the chance for new opportunities. If there's a surprise call and Porter is out, D.J. Augustin is the backup point guard and has scored .782 DK points per minute this season. House's absence doesn't have a massive fantasy impact, as Kenyon Martin saw a jump in minutes but didn't do much. If the Rockets can keep it close, Jae'Sean Tate and Daniel Theis should see solidified roles.
LeBron James (ankle): Questionable; Wayne Ellington (hamstring): Questionable; Anthony Davis (knee): Probable
The biggest impact here appears to be Lebron's status. If he's absent, Malik Monk should log big minutes and emerges as a nice value play.
Ellington has dressed of late, but not played as the Lakers have slow-played his return. If he takes the floor, Monk and Austin Reaves would lose time.
And if Davis surprisingly fails to suit up, Dwight Howard could see a boost in minutes and still has enough ability to rack up defensive stats to be an interesting punt play at $3,600.
Elite Players
Guard
Damian Lillard ($9,400)
Lillard hasn't produced a performance to pay off his salary yet this season, but this slate feels like the spot for him to break out of his slump. There's understandably been questions surrounding Lillard's ability to play in coach Chauncey Billups' system, but his usage (29.4%) has remained intact. Instead, his true-shooting percentage has tumbled to .491, nine percentage points below his career average. That should even out soon.
Russell Westbrook ($9,700)
This is all about James' status. If Lebron plays, Westbrook becomes an easy choice to pass over. If James is out, Westbrook likely becomes the chalk of the slate and makes for an easy play. The two times James missed last week, Westbrook posted 64 and 59.5 DK points respectively - both of which would easily pay off his valuation.
Forward/Center
Rudy Gobert ($8,400)
Gobert could see some of Giannis Antetokounmpo on the defensive end of the floor, which is a concern. However, he simply seems misvalued since he's averaging 45.5 DK points early on and has only one game below 44.5 DK points. Gobert's defensive prowess also offsets some of his potential risk on the offensive end.
Miles Bridges ($7,400)
Maybe Bridges isn't considered an elite player, but his form has been to begin the season. Some usage could be taken from him due to the return of Terry Rozier, but his peripherals have been strong enough (1.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 3Pt per 36 minutes) that I have no problem turning to him. The Blazers have been fairly strong defensively so far, but as has been noted the pace of play should help Bridges and other fantasy contributors in this contest.
Jerami Grant ($6,700)
Grant may not have the name value of other stars on the slate, but he's the focal point of the Pistons' offense until Cade Cunningham gets fully up to speed. He's shot the ball horribly (.442 true-shooting percent) to start, yet has still displayed plenty of ability to put up strong fantasy lines. Brooklyn has been a middle-of-the-road defensive team, but will be without several bigs today and could also push the pace to force Detroit into more offensive possessions than normal.
Expected Chalk
James Harden ($9,900)
Harden produced a vintage performance Friday while getting to the free-throw line 19 times. In his first five outings, Harden had gotten to the line a combined 15 occasions. That and his 56.5 DK points will likely have people back believing in his ability as a top-flight fantasy producer. There are a few angles to take on playing him Sunday. On paper, this is a good matchup as the Nets enter as massive favorites and Harden is one of their offense's two key cogs. On the other hand, Detroit has been a decent defensive team with their struggles largely stemming from the offensive end. While the Nets are more likely to dictate pace, the Pistons will still try to slow the game down and lower the volume of both Harden and Kevin Durant. Even if the Nets push the pace, Harden could lose minutes in a blowout. In Nets games decided by 13 or more points this season, he's only topped 35 minutes once in four opportunities.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Antetokounmpo and the Bucks will be on the back end of a back-to-back. He's historically struggled without rest during his career, seeing nearly every relevant metric drop in the scenario. On the other hand, the Jazz have not been the defensive juggernaut of seasons past early on this campaign and also play at a brisk offensive pace. Given the slate, I'd likely rather pay up for Antetokounmpo than Harden or Durant given positional breakdowns and some of the pace/script concerns mentioned above.
Value Picks
George Hill ($4,000)
With Jrue Holiday sidelined, Hill should continue to see minutes and an expanded role. He's a solid cash game play or GPP filler to simply hit at 5X value. There's not much more there, but he'll help provide salary relief on a slate with limited options.
Malik Monk ($3,700)
Monk is a play to consider if LeBron James is ruled out. Even in relatively poor performances, Monk managed 26.75 and 19.25 DK points with James sidelined. Both would be passable (and then some) for the salary. Watch the news on this one.
D.J. Augustin ($3,100)
If Kevin Porter is ruled out, Augustin becomes a solid value averaging .782 DK points per minute this season. With 30 minutes, he'd produce 23.5 fantasy points at that pace – more than enough given his value.
DeAndre' Bembry ($3,000)
Bembry has always been able to rack up defensive stats and should be in for an expanded role in the absence of Paul Millsap. This is a true punt/desperation play given Bembry's lack of offensive role, but could be worth it to get to a desired build in a small slate.
Daniel Theis ($4,000)
Theis has endured an incredibly inconsistent start to the season and has regularly delivered dismal efforts. He battled a knee injury late in the preseason, which may have limited him early on. He reached 29 minutes Oct. 26 against Dallas and posted 33.5 fantasy points, by far his best outing. That fell under the radar as he drew a matchup against Rudy Gobert in his following game, which was a predictably poor performance. However, Theis's salary has fallen all the way from $5,300 and should be a nice value if he returns to 29 minutes.
