This article is part of our Category Strategy series.
This is a very uneven week for category strategy. Some categories have a wealth of good options, like scoring and threes, while others are sparse, such as assists and steals. In season-long roto leagues, owners can use this to their advantage in one of two ways. One option is to target the sparse categories, where there is already scarcity, preventing opponents from making any headway in that category. An alternative strategy would be to shed a few players on the bottom of your roster, and take a hard turn towards scoring and threes, attempting to cover more ground than you might normally recover from waiver adds.
The Knicks are the only team playing two games this week, which is a big hit to the potential waiver value of all of their players. The fact that they play on Tuesday and Thursday, the two quietest nights this week, mitigates some of that downside in certain leagues (daily schedules and no games max).
At this point in the season, lots of managers are looking at keeper options for next year. In my "other suggestions" section, I list players in order of their overall waiver value right now (not their value in that specific category). I am adding a "keeper suggestions" section this week – this will list players in order of their expected value next season (not their value now or for the remainder of this season). For example, I anticipate Willie Cauley-Stein will have more value than Jamal Murray for the
This is a very uneven week for category strategy. Some categories have a wealth of good options, like scoring and threes, while others are sparse, such as assists and steals. In season-long roto leagues, owners can use this to their advantage in one of two ways. One option is to target the sparse categories, where there is already scarcity, preventing opponents from making any headway in that category. An alternative strategy would be to shed a few players on the bottom of your roster, and take a hard turn towards scoring and threes, attempting to cover more ground than you might normally recover from waiver adds.
The Knicks are the only team playing two games this week, which is a big hit to the potential waiver value of all of their players. The fact that they play on Tuesday and Thursday, the two quietest nights this week, mitigates some of that downside in certain leagues (daily schedules and no games max).
At this point in the season, lots of managers are looking at keeper options for next year. In my "other suggestions" section, I list players in order of their overall waiver value right now (not their value in that specific category). I am adding a "keeper suggestions" section this week – this will list players in order of their expected value next season (not their value now or for the remainder of this season). For example, I anticipate Willie Cauley-Stein will have more value than Jamal Murray for the remainder of this season, so Cauley-Stein is listed before Murray as an "other suggestion". However, I expect Murray will have more value next season, so I list Murray before Cauley-Stein under "keeper suggestions".
Points
Buddy Hield, Kings
(Ownership: ESPN – 30%; Yahoo – 52%; CBS – 65%)
Hield's role has become pretty consistent since being traded to the Kings. Hield's first couple of games on his new team were suspiciously consistent, reeking of upper management interference. I mentioned Hield here two weeks ago, after four games had passed, and he was averaging 26.3 minutes per game for his new team. Now, Hield has played 10 games as a King, and his minutes average is identical: 26.3. In the first four games, he averaged 9.8 field goal attempts per game. Over his first 10, the average is 9.9. Finally, over the first four games, he was averaging 13.8 points per game, and over the first 10, he is scoring 14.2. This is the Buddy Hield we should expect for the remainder of the season. It is possible his workload and scoring will increase slightly, but barring injury, it would be shocking if his minutes decreased.
Nikola Mirotic is a potential add for managers looking to swing big, and willing to chance that they will miss. He received three straight DNP-CDs, but then scored 24 points, including five threes, and grabbed 11 boards in 29 minutes Monday. It only was the third time he'd played 29 or more minutes since the All-Star break, when the Bulls made a trade that shifted around their wings and bigs depth chart. In all three games, he's been fantastic, averaging 19.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.7 threes. But he's disappointed in the other four games when he saw the floor, and DNPs are always a cause for concern.
The much-anticipated Norman Powell breakout is finally showing signs of life. A number of experts, including many I respect, were salivating over Powell's potential as a late-season breakout/sleeper/hype-train. Frankly, I'm still not sold. That said, Powell warrants mention here for two reasons. First, I respect many of those analysts, and I am open to the idea that I am wrong about Powell. Second, because those analysts were already excited about Powell, he will be more widely discussed, and added more quickly, now that he's put together a solid run. He is averaging 14.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.0 threes in 24.6 minutes over his last seven games. If you want in, you probably have to act more quickly than those numbers would typically demand.
Other suggestions: David Lee, Spurs; Ivica Zubac, Lakers; Nikola Mirotic, Bulls; Jahlil Okafor, 76ers; Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Jamal Murray, Nuggets; Jordan Crawford, Pelicans; Norman Powell, Raptors
Keeper suggestions: Ivica Zubac, Lakers; Jamal Murray, Nuggets; Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings
Three-Pointers
Jordan Crawford, Pelicans
(Ownership: ESPN – 3%; Yahoo – 36%; CBS – 21%)
The Pelicans shipped all of their backcourt depth to the Kings during the DeMarcus Cousins trade. None of what remains qualified as "exciting young talent" who would benefit from the now-open minutes. Furthermore, though the Pelicans are now six games out of the final playoff spot in the West, they are still hoping for a postseason berth. Combining those two factors, and the Pelicans have no good reason not to re-up on Crawford's 10-day contract (sorry for the double-negative, but what I'm getting at is I expect them to re-sign him). Crawford has averaged 16.0 points and 3.3 threes in 24.3 minutes per game during his three games as a Pelican, his first stint in the NBA since April of 2014.
Other suggestions: Nikola Mirotic, Nuggets; Jamal Murray, Nuggets; Danny Green, Spurs; Channing Frye, Cavaliers; Patty Mills, Spurs
Keeper suggestions: Jamal Murray, Nuggets
Rebounds
David Lee, Spurs
(Ownership: ESPN – %; Yahoo – 24%; CBS – 51%)
It wasn't all that long ago that Lee was the only All-Star on the Warriors 2012-13 playoff squad. Though his stats have declined precipitously since then, most of the fall has been the result of decreased minutes. Outside of scoring, his per-36 numbers are nearly identical to those he was putting up during that last All-Star appearance, and in some categories they have even significantly improved. With LaMarcus Aldridge (heart) now out indefinitely, there are a lot of open minutes in the Spurs frontcourt. Aldridge has missed three games so far, and in them Lee played 31, 18, and 30 minutes, averaging 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists. Those numbers are slightly – but only slightly – below Lee's per-36 numbers this season, which is what should be expected from a 33-year-old seeing increased minutes. Ignoring categorical needs, he ties Ivica Zubac, who I talk about more in the blocks section below, as my top recommended adds this week.
Staying within the Spurs frontcourt, Dewayne Dedmon is an option for deep leagues. He's not exciting, and he basically adds nothing outside of rebounds, blocks, and field goal percentage. That said, he pulls down 13.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per-36 minutes, and he is also likely to see extra minutes with Aldridge out. Through the first three Aldridge-less games, Pau Gasol's minutes have not increased, which may be a sign that they wish to preserve Gasol and allocate extra minutes elsewhere.
Other suggestions: Ivica Zubac, Lakers; Richaun Holmes, 76ers; Marquese Chriss, Suns Dewayne Dedmon, Spurs
Keeper suggestions: Ivica Zubac, Lakers
Assists
Jameer Nelson, Nuggets
(Ownership: ESPN – 12%; Yahoo – 18%; CBS – 45%)
Rough week for owners needing assists. All of the potential candidates are seriously flawed. In fantasy, when in doubt, go with the guy who gets the most minutes. Nelson has seen a relatively consistent 28.9 minutes per game since the All-Star break, during which period the Nuggets are 7-4 – and one of those losses came during the only game Nelson missed. As the Nuggets quest for the final playoff spot, which they currently hold, Nelson figures to continue his role as primary facilitator. He is averaging 4.9 assists since the All-Star break, and 5.3 over his last six games.
Other suggestions: David Lee, Spurs; Jamal Crawford, Pelicans; Patty Mills, Spurs; Tyler Ulis, Suns
Steals
Larry Nance, Lakers
(Ownership: ESPN – 6%; Yahoo – 19%; CBS – 18%)
Nance has seen very consistent usage since the All-Star break, playing between 20 and 25 minutes in seven of nine games, with one game over and one game under that range. He has at least one steal in his last seven games and is averaging 1.7 per game since the break. The Lakers are in the process of shifting minutes towards their young players, which is unlikely to hurt Nance, a 23-year-old sophomore – and it may help him. It's a weaker than usual field for steals this week, so while Nance is a player whose fantasy game is riddled with holes, there are not many better options available.
Other suggestions: Tony Allen, Grizzlies; Tony Snell, Bucks
Blocks
Ivica Zubac, Lakers
(Ownership: ESPN – 8%; Yahoo – 32%; CBS – 46%)
After weeks sifting through scraps, there is finally a shot-blocker on the waiver-wire worth getting excited about! Act fast, though, because his ownership numbers are already rising rapidly. Zubac started Sunday's and Monday's games. On Tuesday, the Lakers announced that Timofey Mozgov would be shut down for the remainder of the season. Though Mozgov had already sat out eight of the nine games since the All-Star break, his deactivation is further evidence that the Lakers are shifting their focus toward the future, and Zubac looks like a part of that future. Zubac is averaging 16.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per-36 this season, and his nightly minutes count looks like it's about to shoot upwards.
Other suggestions: Danny Green, Spurs; Cody Zeller, Hornets; John Henson, Bucks
Keeper suggestions: Ivica Zubac, Lakers
Deep leagues only: Larry Sanders, Cavaliers
