Farm Futures: Meadows vs. Tapia

There is an undisputed drop-off at the position after the first tier of Byron Buxton and Nomar Mazara, but many reasonable minds could disagree to great extents on how to order the next 10-12 players at the position.

Andrew Benintendi, Lewis Brinson, David Dahl, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Max Kepler, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, Victor Robles, Nick Williams and Bradley Zimmer (listed in alphabetical order) are the next 11 outfielders on my personal list, the next version of which will appear in the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2015.

It's a testament to the lack of high-end talent at the Arizona Fall League this year that the position player who drew the most favorable evaluations from scouts over the weekend the RotoWire contingent was in attendance, Austin Meadows, does not factor into my top-13 at the position. It should be noted that Frazier, who does make the cut based on having a much higher ceiling than Meadows, was also playing in the AFL, as was Brinson, though he had gone home before I arrived in Arizona, so he wasn't talked about at the First Pitch Arizona conference. The point remains, Meadows was seen as the most impressive hitter by many over Frazier, and another player in the AFL who did not crack the above list -- Raimel Tapia.

Meadows and Tapia were excluded from last week's AFL Roundup, because there was just too much that needed to be flushed out with regard to both players. This is because my personal opinion on each player before seeing them in Arizona was contrary to the general consensus, and therefore my beliefs were challenged much more so with these two than the rest of the players in the AFL combined. Before breaking down what happened in Arizona, here is what the two players did in 2015, with all of Tapia's numbers coming in the hitter-friendly California League and most of Meadows' numbers coming in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League.

I was not impressed by what I saw from Tapia at the plate, but I probably remain the highest on him among the RotoWire contingent (and probably many other contingents) that attended First Pitch Arizona. He had a handful of strikeouts and pop-ups, with just one hard hit ball in three games. It's easy to look at his slight frame or funky batting stance (particularly with two strikes) and get cold feet because he doesn't resemble the prototypical toolsy outfielder, which is what he gets labeled as. Meadows, on the other hand, looks a lot more like the reincarnation of a big league outfielder of yesteryear at the plate. Nothing he does stands out in a strange or negative way. His swing is controlled, smooth, and easy. His stance is statuesque compared to Tapia's stance. Yet he has his flaws as well, specifically as a dynasty league asset.

While everyone is busy focussing on Meadows' hit tool and approach, it is easy to forget that fantasy baseball rewards not just batting average and runs, but power and speed as well. There does not seem to be much power or long-term speed in his profile, which limits his ceiling. I could see him stealing 15 bases in his first full season, with something like eight or 10 home runs. Then, in a few seasons, those numbers would probably flip, with him hitting 15 homers and struggling to get to double-digit steals.

A realistic ceiling for Meadows might be Nick Markakis -- a fine player -- but a similarly overhyped prospect who rarely contributed even average fantasy totals in categories other than average and runs. Even if Meadows were to reach that peak, he would still be the Pirates' fourth best outfielder behind Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and major breakout candidate Gregory Polanco. Essentially, Meadows is organizational depth unless a trade or significant injury takes place.

With respect to Tapia's detractors, it can be dangerous to dismiss players because they don't match what we are familiar with. But at the same time, that will always be a pretty big part of a scout's thought process. The safest thing to do with Tapia after seeing him in a few games would be to downgrade his realistic ceiling and unload one's shares in dynasty leagues. His frame makes it hard to project double-digit home run power against big league pitching, even with plus bat speed. The most worrisome thing about my Tapia looks was that his famed ability to put good wood on the ball was not evident. However, if one believes he can be a 60-grade hitter, then by virtue of his bat speed and home ballpark, it would still be quite possible to project some 12-15 homer seasons. Unfortunately, the likelihood that he produces like a 60-grade hitter at the big league level can reasonably be downgraded, if only because conventional wisdom suggests his slight frame will be exploitable by the best power pitchers in the world.

Meadows may be favored over Tapia by many of my peers and many in the scouting community, but their AFL numbers have not supported this stance, though it is an incredibly small sample size, and the pitching was often not close to big league caliber.

My stance on Meadows has not changed much, even after seeing him (barely) clear the fence for a homer in the Fall Stars game and after hearing scouts admiringly compliment his skill set all weekend. What was a 26-spot gap between Tapia and Meadows on the dynasty league prospect rankings before my trip to Arizona has now completely closed, as I view the two outfield prospects as interchangeable dynasty league commodities. However, it should be noted that Meadows will likely cost significantly more than Tapia in a trade, because like I said at the top, my opinion on these two players is not shared by the industry as a whole.

Instead of belonging among the top-13 outfield prospects I listed at the beginning of this article, Tapia and Meadows fall short, for opposite reasons. Meadows' ceiling isn't high enough, and Tapia's floor isn't high enough. Instead, they will be ranked among the third and fourth tiers of outfield prospects, next to players like Anthony Alford, Trent Clark, Derek Fisher, Ian Happ, Rymer Liriano, Billy McKinney, Peter O'Brien, Roman Quinn, Hunter Renfroe, and Jesse Winker (listed in alphabetical order). Obviously that is a much less exciting group of players.

It is easy to get excited about a toolsy athlete who could play half his games in Coors Field, or a high draft pick who simply looks more like a baseball player than any of the players around him in a fall/winter league, but in the end, dynasty league owners need to be realistic. There is certainly a chance that Meadows or Tapia could become a No. 2 fantasy outfielder, but it should be seen as the long shot -- not the expectation. For those looking for a safe, if unexciting option, Meadows is the guy. If top-50 prospect upside without a top-50 prospect price tag is preferable, Tapia should the clear option.