This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks and Player Props, April 6
The New York Yankees are 5-2 to start the season and lead the AL East Division, but have outscored their foes by just four runs. They also lost 3-0 to the Toronto Blue Jays in their home opener Friday marking the first time since 1967 that they were shut out in their home opener. The Yankees finished 17th among the 20 MLB teams in 1967 with a 72-90 record, averaged 3.2 runs per game and allowed 3.8 RPG. Granted, the game has evolved since then, but I continue to see the Yankees as a team that will finish the season somewhere between 10 games over .500 and a few games under .500.
MLB Picks for Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
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The Blue Jays will look to win the second of this three-game series against their AL East division rival Yankees. The market has this matchup priced evenly with the Blue Jays at +100 and the Yankees at -110 on the moneyline. The total opened at 8.5 runs and some books have moved lower to eight runs.
Who Are the Starting Pitchers?
The Blue Jays have a significant edge having Kevin Gausman on the bump, who has made 25 starts against the Yankees and posted an 8-6 record with a strong 2.99 ERA and a 1.225 WHIP. Last season he went 1-0 in three starts against the Yankees allowing two earned runs in his first start, but allowing zero runs in each of the last two starts spanning 20 innings of work, including 25 strikeouts.
For his 12-year career, Gausman has amassed an 88-91 record with a 3.84 ERA, a 1.263 WHIP and a 3.75 strikeouts per walk ratio. Over the past three seasons, he has pitched his best baseball earning All-Star honors last season and in 2021, finishing sixth for the 2021 Cy Young, ninth for the 2022 Cy Young and third last season for the Cy Young. So, he is one of the best starting pitchers currently in MLB.
The Yankees will hand the ball to their right-handed starter Clarke Schmidt, who made his MLB debut on Sept. 4, 2020. He was drafted by the Yankees in the first round (16th overall) in the June 2017 Amateur Draft. For his young career, he has posted a 14-15 record with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.359 WHIP, including 223 strikeouts spanning 234.2 innings of work.
Schmidt throws a heavy fastball (sinker) averaging 94 MPH. He changes the grip slightly to throw a cutter out of the same arm slot that keeps batters off balance. His change is not all that good and is used mostly against left-handed batters and averages 89 MPH. A good change is 10 MPH slower than a fastball and, as a result, Schmidt has to be extremely careful not to leave any of his change offerings up in the zone against one of the best offensive lineups in MLB.
The Situational Trends Supporting the Blue Jays
The following situational trends support this betting opportunity on the Tigers.
· Blue Jays are 15-3 after batting .200 or worse over their previous three games.
· Blue Jays are 22-5 after batting .225 over a five-game span covering the last two seasons.
· Schmidt is 1-8 in home starts when favored between -100 and -150.
· Blue Jays skipper John Schneider is a perfect 10-0 after his team has batted .200 or worse over their last five games.
· Yankees skipper Aaron Boone is 33-37 losing 22 units off a loss to a divisional foe priced as the favorite.
MLB Picks for Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies
The betting markets have the 3-5 Rays favored at a -145 price using the moneyline over the 2-6 Rockies. The total for this game opened at 12.5 runs with -120 vig betting the OVER and has since seen steady money coming in on the Under forcing the vig for the Over bet to move to +110. This line will likely move to 12 runs if the betting flows continue to lean to the Under.
MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Rockies
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 45-49 record for 48 percent winning bets, but by averaging a 133 underdog wager has made 14 units per unit wagered since 2004. The requirements are:
· Bet on home underdogs.
· The dog is coming off a game in which 15 or more runs were scored.
· The road favorite outscored their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in the previous season.
· The total is 10 or more runs.
Now, the bet I like is a combination wager using 70 percent on the moneyline and 30 percent on the +1.5 run line knowing that this algorithm has a subset producing a stellar 24-11 record for 69 percent winning bets and earning a highly profitable 30 percent ROI.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
· Bet the Toronto Blue Jays over the NY Yankees as an 8-Unit Best Bet
· Bet on the Rockies to defeat the Rays as an 8-unit underdog bet
