Tyler Glasnow Prop & More Expert MLB Picks for Saturday, April 27

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Published on April 27, 2024

MLB Expert Picks and Player Props for
Saturday, April 27

The MLB season is nearing the end of its first full month of games and some of the usual franchises are looking like strong playoff contenders. The Atlanta Braves lead the National League East, have won four straight games, and boast the best record in MLB at 18-6. Next up are the Cleveland Guardians, who sport an 18-8 record and lead the American League Central. The LA Dodgers are on a five-game win streak and lead the NL West with a 17-11 record. What is alarming is that the Dodgers are the only team in the division to have a winning record with the San Diego Padres (14-15), San Francisco Giants (13-14), Arizona Diamondbacks (12-15) and Colorado Rockies (7-19) all with losing records.

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The franchise that has been a shocker and has its fan base up in arms is the Houston Astros, who are in last place in the AL West Division with a horrid 7-19 record and a current five-game losing streak. They are 2-8 over their last 10 games and have been outscored by 36 runs. Only the Oakland A's (37 runs) and the historically poor Chicago White Sox (85 runs) have been outscored by more runs in the AL. Perhaps the Astros can get on track as they face the Colorado Rockies for a three-game series against the last-place Colorado Rockies in their two-game series in Mexico City this weekend.

The Best Bets for the Astros vs Rockies Game

Both the Astros and Rockies have the same record at 7-19 and both are in last place in their respective divisions. Despite equal losing records, the Astros are priced as -210 money line favorites with a posted total of 8.5 runs. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:05 ET and the game will be played at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu in Mexico City.

Who Are the Starters?

The Astros will have right-hander Ronel Blanco on the hill, and he has posted a 2-0 record in four starts with a 1.33 ERA and an excellent 0.852 WHIP spanning 27 innings of work. He has been among the few positive developments for the Astros this season. They also received great news that their best starter Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to make the start for the Astros on Sunday.

Blanco has impressive metrics but they are based on a small sample size. He has allowed an average exit velocity of just 84.5 MPH and a 23 percent hard-hit percentage. However, he has posted a rather weak 21 percent strikeout rate and has walked 12 percent of the batters he has faced. He has tremendous late-breaking movement with all his pitches and he does have issues with control. Let's not forget too that this is more of a home-game environment for the Rockies playing at above mile-high altitudes in Mexico City like they do at Coors Field.

For the Rockies, right-hander Cal Quantrill will be on the bump and he has posted an 0-2 record in five starts with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.481 WHIP, including 15 strikeouts over 27 innings of work. Quantrill is not a power pitcher by any measure but he does know how to get batters out. For his career, he has posted a 35-25 record with a 3.85 ERA and 1.272 WHIP in 99 starts and 38 appearances spanning a combined 597.2 innings of work.

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The MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Rockies

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced remarkable results with a 24-14 record for 64 percent winning bets averaging a +210 underdog wager, making the Dime Bettor a $34,760 profit. The requirements are:

· Bet on underdogs of +175 and greater.

· Our underdog struggles at the plate posting a slugging percentage of .370 or lower spanning the last 15 games.

· Their bullpen has been overused having to throw four or more innings in each of their last three games.

So, this is certainly a contrarian bet supported by a highly profitable betting algorithm that shows solid situations where these struggling teams, like the Rockies, do bounce back. I like making this a bet on the Rockies using the 1.5-run line priced at +145 vig. Another option for a $100 bettor is to bet $80 on the 1.5 run line and then $20 on the moneyline priced at +210 for a more aggressive and optimized ROI type of betting strategy.