The Z Files: Mad About Max

Break time is over. It's time for the Premature Edraftulation League, the first official National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) league of the 2019 season. To be honest, the start is delayed a week this year as we usually commence the festivities the last week of the regular season.

While Team Podcast improved upon its 2017 finish, Derek VanRiper and I finished a disappointing fourth, one spot from cashing. Last season, we picked 12th, choosing Max Scherzer. This time, we'll select from the six-hole. The following is how I'm looking at things, which I've already shared with DVR. His approach is similar. We haven't yet finalized the early plan, but have it trimmed down to a couple of pathways.

Regardless of where you're picking, the first decision is mapping out how to approach pitching. Especially in an NFBC league, it's paramount to get a starter in the first three rounds. Will there be successful teams waiting longer? Absolutely, but I promise the bulk of the competitive clubs will have an anchor among their first three picks.

It isn't exactly groundbreaking analysis to decree there's a changing of the guard with Scherzer usurping "first pitcher off the board" honors from Clayton Kershaw. The question is, how early will Mad Max go?

The numbers speak for themselves, as he's coming off his first 300-strikeout season. Yet, there will be some, likely not High Stakes players, warning drafters of Scherzer's age as he'll be 35 next July. Is this risk warranted? Not in my mind. There's nothing in his numbers to be leery about. Suggesting you avoid Scherzer is trying to be too cute.

Personally, Scherzer is in play in NFBC leagues with the third pick. I won't pass on the opportunity to take Mookie Betts or Mike Trout, but after that he's a consideration. The decision revolves around who I expect to be available in terms of pitching at the 2/3 turn. One of the allures of this league is there's no market set. Come March, I'll have a better idea if I'm looking at Aaron Nola or Gerrit Cole, both guys I'd happily lock in as my SP1, or if they'll be off the board after a Round 2 run.

Of course, the decision isn't just mine, plus DVR and I are picking sixth so out second-round pick could be early enough to bypass Scherzer and still be virtually assured of a palatable foundation for our staff. Sometime before our pick, I expect DVR to hit me up on Skype (or vice versa) and we'll hammer this out.

There's a strong possibility we don't have to make the choice, as Scherzer could be taken by the time we're on the clock. We've gotten a head start on this scenario, exchanging our top-five batters. We agree on Betts, Trout and Jose Ramirez. DVR likes Francisco Lindor next, I favor J.D. Martinez. DVR has Martinez fifth while I put Nolan Arenado there.

The only batter we really differ on is Lindor. My concern is he's played 158, 159 and 158 games the past three seasons, amassing 684, 723 and 745 plate appearances. A pattern of this nature is unheard of at this level. There's only one way to go – down. On the other hand, he's done it three consecutive seasons. Lindor has proven to be durable and will only turn 25 in November. Calling out those for poo-pooing Scherzer while I'm doing the same for Lindor is contradictory, especially relative to their ages. Bottom line? If Team Podcast is on the clock and DVR has Lindor as his top choice, Team Podcast will take Lindor.

Let's see what happens if we don't take Scherzer. This entails he's picked in the top-five or we opt to wait on pitching, maybe because someone like Ramirez or Lindor slipped to sixth. What arms are likely to be there with pick 25, our second rounder?

The following hitters will almost assuredly be taken (in no particular order): Betts, Trout, Ramirez, Lindor, Martinez, Arenado, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Jose Altuve. Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich and Freddie Freeman. That's 13, plus Scherzer makes 14. There's a very good chance Ronald Acuna, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Javier Baez will join them, bringing the number to 18.

Let's shift to pitching. Again, in no particular order, here are the names worthy of Pick 25 in my mind: Kershaw, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Blake Snell. That's nine arms for a total of 27 picks.

Given DVR may not agree with my assessment, if we take a hitter first, I'm fine with one of these arms. In fact, there's an outside chance enough other hitters get picked by this point to consider starting with two sticks and pushing pitching to the 36th selection. All it would take is some from Carlos Correa, Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Juan Soto, Whit Merrifield, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger and Ozzie Albies to sneak in. The contingency arms would be Trevor Bauer or Noah Syndergaard in the third, both with SP1 stuff but health risks. I doubt we'll go in this direction, but it doesn't hurt to plot things out, so we have a lay of the land in case an unexpected bat slips to 26th.

Something Derek mentioned was also discussing how we want to approach steals. It's well known the number of stolen bases is down. What isn't as apparent is how this affects the category. What's happening is the category is getting more bunched, especially at the top. This is because there weren't any speedsters with 50 or 60 pilfers, providing a substantial cushion for the teams at the top of the category. That is, it used to be wise to shoot for the spot just below the leaders since the additional bags needed to finish higher was an inefficient use of assets; more points could be garnered elsewhere. Now, it isn't so difficult to leap into the upper echelon, assuming the trend of lower totals, even from the leaguer leaders, carries over. There's no assurance it will, but seeing Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon dropped to the bottom of the order suggests teams are approaching top-of-the-order hitters differently.

The two names Derek suggested were Marte (no, not Ketel) and Merrifield. Either of those in the third, paired with Lindor or Ramirez, would offer a nice steals base, with a solid arm sandwiched in between. Or, starting with Scherzer then double-tapping hitters next also avails a nice power-speed opening offense.

The first six rounds of the draft will be posted on the NFBC forum. After that, I'm sure DVR and I will be sharing our picks on the Twitter machine at @DerekVanRiper and @toddzola. I'll leave it to you to figure out which is which.