This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Those eschewing the myth of position scarcity and investing
Those eschewing the myth of position scarcity and investing in outfield early are reaping the benefits, as 16 of the top 20 projected outfielders have been at least a top-40 outfielder to date. The hit rate isn't as high overall, however, as only 23 of our initial set are performing among the top 40.
The Surprises
Most expected something in the neighborhood of an .800 OPS from Michael Brantley – useful, but not the elite level he displayed in 2014-2015 when he was a five-category contributor. With only 101 games played the last two seasons (90 last year), expecting a full season from Brantley was also optimistic. He missed opening week with an ankle injury, then got a few days off early. However, since May 4, Brantley has played every game. The scary thing is his numbers are fully supported by the underlying metrics, none of which are so egregiously out of whack to assume significant regression. Skill level isn't singular, it's a range. Brantley is playing to the top end of all his skills, simultaneously. Sure, maintaining this level of excellence will be a chore, but his baseline is the .850-.900 OPS player from a few years ago, less the steals. For reference, Brantley is currently sporting a .952 OPS. Injuries remain a concern, but the shoulder woes that cost him so much time are no longer an issue.
Nick Markakis has not only turned back the clock to the days he was a big fantasy asset, he's pacing for 20 homers, a mark he's only reached twice, the last time way back in 2008 with the Orioles. Like Brantley, he's at the top of his skill level, but being three years older, Markakis should have an even harder time sustaining this elevated pace, especially his power. That is, I'm taking the under on 20 homers, expecting him to double his current total of seven. Even with the likely drop, Markakis should continue to pile up RBI and runs in a still-improving Braves lineup.
Mitch Haniger has teased this level before, with injuries curtailing his growth and production. His present rank is buoyed by a 1.000 OPS with runners in scoring position. With apologies to the clutch crowd, that's happenstance, so chances are Haniger falls well short of the 120 RBI he's pacing to register. Since everything else is in line with plausible expectations, Haniger should continue to be a solid asset if he can continue to dodge the disabled list.
Odubel Herrera's defense in center and uncanny ability to get on base has kept him in the Phillies lineup almost every day, despite there being an excess of quality outfielders on the team's roster. However, his underlying metrics warn of a pullback, especially in power. Herrera's below average hard-hit rate will be hard-pressed to support his elevated home run per fly ball mark. While his hard-hit rate can obviously improve, if it doesn't, expect Herrera to only add another 10 or so homers to his current seven. I'm less concerned about batting average. Keeping it at .320 will be tough, but going forward, an improved contact rate should keep it over the .280 mark initially expected.
Remember when Matt Kemp was acquired by the Dodgers solely as an accounting measure and would be released before he set foot in Dodger Stadium? Well, he's currently slashing an eye-popping .345/.372/.554, though he hasn't swiped a base (typed with tongue firmly implanted in cheek). The only thing keeping Kemp from a high rank is he's only had 180 plate appearances – which is 180 more than expected, but short of what full-time players have accrued to date. Kemp's always hit the ball hard, but this season he's sporting a 47 percent rate one-third of the way through the season. To put that in perspective, only two batters since 2001 have ended the season with a higher mark: Ryan Howard (2007) and J.D. Martinez (2017). Kemp may post better than expected numbers going forward, but compared to right now, it's going to be all downhill from here.
Perhaps the Jorge Soler for Wade Davis deal wasn't as lopsided as it appeared last season. Personally, he's the biggest surprise on the list. Maybe that's on me, giving up on him too soon, but there wasn't much on which to hang my proverbial hat. In a vacuum, a .278-24-75-9-78 line isn't exceptional, but I didn't even project Soler for 200 plate appearances, let alone near-regular run with 10th-round production. His current numbers are reminiscent of those when he first came into the league. An axiom coined by our friends at Baseball HQ is "once you display a skill, you own it." So, from that perspective, it shouldn't be a surprise Soler's producing at this level. However, shouldn't it also be true that once you display a lack of a skill, you own that too? I think so, hence my bearish outlook as Soler skills have waned the past couple of campaigns. In particular, he's making more, and harder contact. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in Sabermetrics to know that's a good thing. While there may be some give-back, I'm not expecting much if any. Current production is within Soler's realm of possibility, and even though so is what he did (or didn't do) the past few seasons, he's settled into a good groove with sustainable skills.
The Disappointments
Assuming he sets his alarm clock properly, better days lie ahead for Marcell Ozuna. It's been a rough couple of months after being part of the Marlins fire sale, but the underlying metrics don't lie – he'll be fine. Ozuna's contact rate is in line with his career marks. Don't sweat a lower than normal walk rate, as some of that is not being pitched around as he was last season. Most importantly, Ozuna's normally stellar hard-hit rate is even higher that usual, he's just not realizing typical results. His power is capped with a low fly ball rate, but hitting in the 20s over the final four months is certainly plausible.
The curious case of Domingo Santana continues to baffle. It's not a playing time issue, as many may intuit. Prorate his current plate appearances to 162 games and he's close to last season's totals. Granted, his prospects for time over the next four months aren't as prominent as they were last season, but if you also prorate his production to date, Santana falls well short of last year's numbers. The good news is, like Ozuna, most everything syncs up with what's expected with a similarly elevated hard-hit rate. With consistent playing time, Santana still has the chance to be the guy we thought he was. Unfortunately, even with Ryan Braun and Eric Thames missing time, Santana's not playing every day – and Thames is due back soon. With Jesus Aguilar handling right-handed pitching, the Crew may need to play Thames in the outfield.
While the venue may have a small affect, it's much more than moving from PNC Park to AT&T Park keeping Andrew McCutchen down. AT&T plays to a 71 factor for righty homers, compared to 81 for PNC. Continuing a theme, McCutchen's baseline skills are fine, save a slightly bloated strikeout rate. His hard-hit-rate is a whopping 49 percent. This is extreme. It's befuddling how his 5.7 HR/FB rate is so low. Even with AT&T as his home, McCutchen is my favorite buy-low candidate among the fly-chasers. Ozuna's numbers should be better than Cutch's, but the price to acquire Ozuna will be much greater.
While others followed suit and ranked Manuel Margot high, I'll cop to driving that bandwagon. Some of issue is injury, but when playing, Margot is falling well short of expectations. Margot has become pull-happy. There's likely more to it than that, but to date, his use of the opposite field has dropped precipitously. He's not getting on base, hence not coming close to tapping his 30 stolen base upside. Further, with the emergence of Travis Jankowski, the currently injured Franchy Cordero and Franmil Reyes, there's a logjam in the Padres outfield, even with Cory Spangenberg and Jose Pirela moving to the infield. This doesn't even include Hunter Renfroe, fresh off the disabled list. I still believe in Margot's talent but am tempering expectations this season. There's just not ample at-bats to go around, even if Margot gets his act together.
What's now a four-part series will continue next week with starting and relief pitchers. The final installment will discuss the take-home lessons from the previous three discussions.
