This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
The early success or failure you are experiencing right now might make you feel justified in your draft season assessments, or they might make you feel completely clueless as to why you are attempting to win a fantasy baseball league at all.
Either way, those feelings probably don't matter. You may have built a championship-winning squad that is currently sitting atop the standings after a fast start. On the other hand, you may have a roster full of guys who simply had the best week they will have all season during Week 1. Most of our rosters fall into the vast gray area between those extremes.
Smashing the FAAB piggy bank early is tempting, and conventional wisdom seems to be on point in that the earlier you acquire a waiver-wire upgrade, the more that player impacts your roster.
In making any roster decision, it is important to determine the potential magnitude of the upgrade when deciding on a bid amount. It is much easier for an owner with Ken Giles or Glen Perkins on their roster to justify an aggressive bid in the pursuit of a replacement closer, whereas an owner with three viable closers already may opt to merely keep the league honest and bid considerably less than they expect the player to sell for. Depending on the roster constraints and league rules (i.e. is trading allowed?), speculating on a low-cost alternative when a bullpen is in flux may be best course of action.
Particularly in the NFBC Main
The early success or failure you are experiencing right now might make you feel justified in your draft season assessments, or they might make you feel completely clueless as to why you are attempting to win a fantasy baseball league at all.
Either way, those feelings probably don't matter. You may have built a championship-winning squad that is currently sitting atop the standings after a fast start. On the other hand, you may have a roster full of guys who simply had the best week they will have all season during Week 1. Most of our rosters fall into the vast gray area between those extremes.
Smashing the FAAB piggy bank early is tempting, and conventional wisdom seems to be on point in that the earlier you acquire a waiver-wire upgrade, the more that player impacts your roster.
In making any roster decision, it is important to determine the potential magnitude of the upgrade when deciding on a bid amount. It is much easier for an owner with Ken Giles or Glen Perkins on their roster to justify an aggressive bid in the pursuit of a replacement closer, whereas an owner with three viable closers already may opt to merely keep the league honest and bid considerably less than they expect the player to sell for. Depending on the roster constraints and league rules (i.e. is trading allowed?), speculating on a low-cost alternative when a bullpen is in flux may be best course of action.
Particularly in the NFBC Main Event, the goal is to have three closers for a significant portion of the season in order to be competitive in the saves category for the overall title. Still, many owners will leave an auction or draft with two closers, with the plan of finding their third on the waiver wire during the season. In leagues that use FAAB, the early-season acquisition cost of a newly anointed ninth-inning option can require nearly 40% of a team's budget. While having a good feel for what it will take in order to be the winning bidder when you are the team in need is beneficial, there may be a better way to pursue additional closers in season.
Looking back at my NFBC Main Event league from 2015, the first two weeks of pickups had the typical share of quality players added to rosters, but the biggest bids were overwhelmingly used on closers.
Prior to Week 1...
Jason Grilli – $383 (out of $1,000) – Grilli was taking over as the Braves' closer following the Opening Night trade of Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. He went on to post a 2.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 24 saves in 33.2 innings last season.
Cameron Maybin – $76 – Maybin went on to earn $12 while playing 141 games for the Braves and hitting .267 with 10 homers, 65 runs, 59 RBI, and 23 steals.
Billy Burns – $43 – The owner in my league that added Burns eventually cut him, and he was acquired again during the first FAAB period in May. Like Maybin, Burns contributing with plenty of speed and eventually, he settled into regular playing time. With a .294 average, five homers, 26 steals, 70 runs, and 42 RBI, Burns earned $13 in 2015.
Others receiving bids: Zach McAllister (72), Rubby De La Rosa (46), Asher Wojciechowski (44), Jim Johnson (31), Miguel Gonzalez (24), Johnny Giavotella (18), Ike Davis (13), Ubaldo Jimenez (9), Craig Gentry (7), Alfredo Simon (7), Nick Ahmed (6), Trevor Cahill (5), Casey McGehee (1).
Prior to Week 2...
Jeurys Familia – $385 – Earning $16, Familia was the second most valuable closer in this format last season (only Mark Melancon, $18, was worth more) when it was all said and done. With 86 strikeouts in 78 innings, Familia backed his 43-save season with excellent ratios (1.85 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).
Miguel Castro – $347 – This was a huge bid that simply did not work out. Castro picked up four saves for the Jays, but turned in a 4.38 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with a 12:6 K:BB over 13 appearances at the big league level before his eventual inclusion in the Troy Tulowitzki deal. Roberto Osuna did not record his first save until June 22 last season, and he was purchased twice – once for $13 in late April, and again in late June for $88.
Randal Grichuk – $44 – Picked up again in mid-May ($52), Grichuk provided cheap pop (17 homers) and a solid .276 average, with 49 runs, 47 RBI, and four steals. The earn value was a mere $6, but roughly 5% of a FAAB budget, he more than held his own at an affordable price.
Logan Forsythe – $8 – In what may have been the best overall pickup in the league last season, Forsythe was acquired for an unopposed $8 bid after just one week of action. At the time he was added, Forsythe was sitting on a 4-for-21 (.190) start that included a homer and four RBI. In those games, he had hit higher than seventh in the order once. His owner ended up with a player who earned $16 last season, thanks to a .281 average, 17 homers, 69 runs, 68 RBI, and nine steals – and one who earned more than Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Crawford, Kolten Wong, and Neil Walker.
Others receiving bids: Mark Canha (46), Yonder Alonso (46), Joe Kelly (44), Aaron Harang (43), Rafael Betancourt (33), Chris Heston (33), Chris Hatcher (31), Tommy Milone (24), Scott Feldman (22), Eddie Butler (22), Jose Iglesias (17), Jordan Lyles (14), Carlos Peguero (11), Jeff Locke (11), Marco Gonzales (7), Ryan Hanigan (5), Chris Coghlan (5), Chad Billingsley (2), Tony Sanchez (2), Matt Moore (1), Geovany Soto (1), John Axford (1).
Even still, the Miguel Castro bid was 35% of a FAAB budget flushed down the toilet. It is not as though paying the premium for the new closers in-season once they are revealed by their managers brought significantly more job security.
Perhaps most importantly for our future plans, there were several relievers purchased after the first two weeks of FAAB last season. Among the biggest purchases...
Were saves cost prohibitive last season? Not really, at least, not in this particular league.
What we *think* we know about a player's role is often little more than an educated guess.
I was all but certain that Giles would close for Houston to begin the season (borderline Airplane Test).
Are we sure that Tony Watson, rather than Neftali Feliz, closes for the Pirates if anything happens to Mark Melancon?
If Twitter is any indication, plenty of industry analysts expect Trevor May to usurp Kevin Jepsen as the Twins' closer in the absence of Glen Perkins, particularly if the absence is a lengthy one. It makes sense, considering that May had a better strikeout rate and walk rate than Jepsen in 2015.
It will always be cheaper to speculate on a potential role change before a closer begins to falter. In addition to Feliz and May, here are a few names to consider for the bottom of your roster in the pursuit of saves in the coming weeks.
Hunter Strickland, SFG – There's a good chance he's already rostered, but pounce if he is not and be ready to make a move if his current owner is forced to cut him loose in the near future.
Kevin Siegrist, STL – Seung-Hwan Oh may draw the first look if the Cards replace Trevor Rosenthal at any point in 2016 (he coughed up a save opportunity Wednesday against the Brewers), but Siegrist has held right-handed hitters to a career .174/.253/.312 line and could thrive in the role if he's given the chance. Additionally, the Cards have another lefty at their disposal in Tyler Lyons anyway.
Tony Zych, SEA – Don't sweat the current usage. Ownership rates may already be somewhat high in deeper mixers thanks to a dominant spring, but Joaquin Benoit's shoulder injury and Steve Cishek's tenuous hold on the ninth-inning job make Zych a worthwhile speculation.
Tyler Thornburg, MIL – With Will Smith and Corey Knebel on the disabled list, the Brewers have Thornburg and Michael Blazek working as the bridge to Jeremy Jeffress. While Jeffress has the stuff and the talent to keep the job (and four saves in four chances to begin 2016), Thornburg has shown his pre-2015 velocity (he touched 96 mph in his appearance Wednesday) while mixing in a good curveball and changeup.
