The Saber's Edge: Sinking Feeling

Besides knuckleballers, a pitcher needs to have a usable fastball to be successful in the majors. An ideal fastball will miss bats and generate groundballs. To do these both, the fastballs needs to have above average speed and good amount of downward break. A few pitchers are able to accomplish both with their fastballs. Today, will look at a few pitchers who throw these hard sinking fastballs.

This past winter at FanGraphs, I found which fastballs generate an average amount of swinging strikes and groundballs. The key values to look for was a fastballs with a velocity over 93 mph and a vertical break (label z-movement) of 8 or less. I used the information to help find some pitchers to target from the Arizona Fall League. Two of the pitcher have thrown in the majors this season, Trevor Gott and Chad Smith. Neither were highly touted prospects, but both have at least gotten a call up. While Smith has struggled quite a bit in 1.1 innings of work (33.75 ERA), Gott has yet to allow a run in eight innings.

I went ahead and run a query to find which pitchers meet the above criteria this season. Here they are, ranked by the number over number of these fastballs thrown. Feel free to download the spreadsheet and manipulate it as needed.

Here are my thoughts on some of the pitchers

Established Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber – Three of this year's top pitchers are at the top of the list. This trio know they have good pitches and use them successfully.

The one issue which can pop-up with these heavy groundball pitchers is an inflated BABIP because of bad infield defenses. Take Kluber for example. From the start of the season to his June 9th start, Kluber had a .352 BABIP. On June 14th, the Indians promoted good fielding Francisco Lindor (SS) and Giovanny Urshela (3B) to the majors. Kluber's BABIP in the starts with the pair in the majors is .255. While groundballs are preferred outcome, mainly because they can't become home runs, a porous infield defense can be liability.

Edinson Volquez – Volquez has taken his sinker to Kansas City and thrived. While the Royals outfield defense is their strong point, their infield defense is above average. His groundballs are currently getting fielded and he has a .255 BABIP. Additionally, he has kept the ball in the yard with career best 0.5 HR/9. I could see both of these stats regressing towards the league average, but both should still stay low. In leagues where he is in play, I see Volquez continuing to produce as he has this year.

Tyson Ross – Ross has really taken his groundball tendencies to whole new level this season. This is the fourth straight season his groundball rate has increased. It has gone from 48% to 50% to 55% to 57% t0 62%. The 62% value is the third best value among qualified starters. The change is from throwing his 2-seamer more and more. Over the past few seasons, it has had a ~70% GB%

While Volquez has been helped by a great defense, Ross has not.  The Padres are possibly the worst defense in the league. His .346 BABIP is the 4th highest among qualified starters which has led to his ERA (3.57) being higher than his FIP (2.93).

Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg used a sinker later in 2014 and bit to start the 2015 season. He has since abandoned the pitch. It was a good pitch when he used it for groundballs and swinging strikes (both rates better than his 97 mph four seamer). I could see revisit the sinker when his velocity begins to decline.

Young pitchers

Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom – All four of these Mets starters have at least a fastball which meet the above criteria. Matz's main fastball (61% usage) is this hard sinker. For the other three pitchers, the pitch is a secondary fastball. If any of the pitchers is needing a groundball for a double play, they have the option to throw. Having all four on the list is a nice sign for the Mets future.

Aaron Sanchez – Sanchez has some great tools, but as I noted in last week's article, he needs to get his walks under control (5.1 BB/9 vs 5.7 K/9). Once he does, he value could really take off. I could see him as a nice stash for owners who have a bench spot and the time to wait. He could pull a Carlos Carrasco and turn into a top pitcher.

Mike Foltynewicz – Like Sanchez, Foltynewicz has some of the pieces in place to be a good pitcher, but he hasn't put them all together. He looked like had finally turned the corner with a 3.96 ERA/3.66 FIP in May. Then in June, the wheels came off again and he had an 8.04 ERA/5.89 FIP. One day it could all click for him and he could be a top 20 pitcher. Until then, he will continue to frustrate his owners.

Rubby De La Rosa – He has some signs of being an OK starter, but home runs just seem like they will always be an issue.  His hard sinker has helped by putting 50% of batted balls on the ground. When people do hit his pitches in the air, they go far (14% HR/FB for his career and 18% this season).

Alex Meyer – The once highly touted Twins prospect finally made his major league debut out of the bullpen. In 2.2 innings of work, he has an insane 16.88 ERA with a 6.8 HR/9. These numbers are out of place considering his minor league HR/9 numbers where always ~0.5 HR/9. I think he may have a bit of the jitters and is over throwing. I would like to see how his next 10 to 20 innings go. It deeper/dynasty leagues, it may be time to make a play for him while he has no value.

Taijuan Walker – Walker seems to have finally put it all together in June after struggling for a couple of years in the majors. In June he had a 2.36 ERA to go with a 3.23 FIP. The biggest reason for the turnaround was a declining walk rate going from 5.0 BB/9 in April to 0.8 in June.

Lance McCullers – Has been a complete surprise this season by finally not walking too many batters. In high-A, he had a 5.2 BB/9 which would likely only get worse as he got closer to the majors. Instead, he got his walks under control in double-A (3.4 BB/9). In the majors, he was able to even get it down to 3.0 BB/9. If he gets back to his old ways and starts walking hitters, I may begin to worry about him. Until then, enjoy the ride.