The Long Game: Scrubbing Your Keeper List

Note: If your keeper league has an early auction date and you're looking for tips on basic strategy, assembling your keeper list and how to handle inflation, this column from last year remains a good primer. I'll dig a little deeper into those topics over the course of spring.

Assembling a keeper list usually involves a lot of easy decisions. Whether it's a post-breakout Bryce Harper or a post-Tommy John surgery Yu Darvish, 2015 auction salaries can look like huge bargains heading into 2016 as players' careers take different courses. Especially in deeper formats though, 12-team AL/NL-only leagues or 18- or 20-team mixed leagues, there will usually be a handful of players hanging around from the end of last season with whom you're not quite sure what to do. Maybe it's a free agent you picked up to plug a hole, who's now changed teams and potentially changed his fortunes. Maybe it's a prospect who can no longer be protected as a minor leaguer due to his service time, but who hasn't established himself as a big-league regular yet. Maybe it's a pitcher who looks good in spurts but can never seem to stay healthy. Whoever it is, they're cheap, and if everything goes right for them, they could be a great endgame play in the auction.

That then begs the questions, though. Why wait to re-acquire them for an endgame dollar, when they're already on your roster at a comparable price now? A Stars and Scrubs auction strategy only means you have pricey players and cheap ones, with little to no middle class. It says nothing about where the cheap players came from. If you head into an auction with a bunch of sub-$5 players that you like already rostered, you're halfway home.

Of course, there are sometimes good reasons to toss them back. You might think you can do better with that roster spot, or at least no worse. You might be overloaded at that position already and want to keep that specific roster spot open in the auction for flexibility. The player might be heading into the option year of their contract, and you'd rather try to re-start them on a fresh deal instead of watching them break out without getting a chance to extend them. But for one reason or another, they have a skill or a spot on a depth chart that makes them worth considering as potential keepers, and so your decision-making process gets a little harder.

Below I've listed one player from every MLB team who might fall into this zone for you. It's by no means a comprehensive list, but it does provide a broad selection of different types of players and the different factors you'll need to take into account before placing them on your protected list or cutting them loose. I didn't consider any player who switched leagues in the offseason (such as Trayce Thompson) as they wouldn't be a protectable option in most only-league formats.

Chris Owings, Ari - He's coming off a fairly miserable season at the plate, as his strikeouts rose and contact rate plummeted, but Owings still stole 16 bases in an offensive environment where MLB teams, as a whole, swiped the fewest bases since the league went to 30 franchises in the '90s (something I plan to talk about in a little more detail next column). He also has eligibility at both middle infield positions, a nice bonus, and with Brandon Drury a threat to take the starting second-base job Owings could wind up in a utility role, giving him extra flexibility. Of course, he could also end up back in Triple-A, but if you've already got him rostered at a buck or two the speed and position flex make him a solid deep-league stash as your MI.

Kelly Johnson, Atl - Speaking of positional flexibility, Johnson heads into 2016 eligible at first base, second base and outfield, and he could quickly add third base to his resume if Adonis Garcia struggles or gets hurt. The veteran isn't a big upside play, but he offers some cheap power and could see plenty of playing time off the Braves' bench, given their mostly uncertain starting lineup.

Nolan Reimold, Bal - Injuries and roster crunches have limited Reimold's production throughout his career, and his 15 home runs as a rookie in 2009 still stands as his career high. After the Orioles' signing of Dexter Fowler fell through, though, Reimold finds himself atop the team's depth chart in right field heading into spring. Could this finally be the season he stays healthy, gets consistent at-bats and takes a run at 20 HR? In a deep AL-only league, you could have trouble finding someone with that kind of vaguely plausible upside for your endgame dollar.

Joe Kelly, Bos - Between Aug. 1 and Sept. 9 last year, Kelly reeled off eight straight victories while posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 38:16 K:BB ratio in 48.2 innings. Now, he was mostly abysmal the rest of the year, but given his mid-90s fastball and useful, if erratic, secondary offerings, it's easy to daydream on what Kelly might become if that month-long stretch becomes the norm rather than the exception.

Pedro Strop, ChC - The Cubs are finally in a place where wins are expected rather than idly hoped for, which means there will be no fooling around when it comes to the ninth inning. Hector Rondon has been very good the last couple years, but as recently as last June, manager Joe Maddon yanked him from the closer role to give him a chance to work some things out. If that happens again this season, Strop (who has also posted very good numbers over the last two years) is ready to step in, and even if he doesn't get many save chances his spot as one of the better high-K setup men in the league should allow him to earn more than the modest salary he's likely carrying.

Tyler Saladino, ChW - Consider Saladino the AL-only version of Owings. He heads into this season eligible at third base, but is lightly penciled into the starting shortstop spot (assuming he holds off fading vet Jimmy Rollins) and even if he gets bumped aside, Saladino could find himself in a nice utility role. The upside in steals remains great, however, as Saladino went 33-for-37 on the basepaths between the majors and Triple-A in 2015.

Tony Cingrani, Cin - The Reds seem to have given up on the idea of using Cingrani as a starter, which means he can take his career 9.99 K/9 to the bullpen and compete for the closer role. Normally, a left-handed pitcher with no track record isn't a great bet for saves, but Cinci's comfortable with the idea given Aroldis Chapman's long run and it's not like Cingrani's competition is any great shakes. Everyone who thinks J.J. Hoover will keep the job all season, raise your hands. Yeah, I didn't think so.

Giovanny Urshela, Cle - His first crack at the majors turned out poorly, as Urshela saw his strikeouts spike and contact rate droop. He's still only 24, though, and his minor league numbers indicate that better results should be on their way. The Indians brought in Juan Uribe to compete for the starting third-base spot, and Urshala's fantasy upside isn't much higher than the veteran's reasonable present-day production (solid batting average, double-digit HR power), but Uribe's also 36. At some point, youth will be served.

Mark Reynolds, Col - Prior to his rough 2015 with St. Louis, Reynolds had pounded out seven consecutive 20-plus HR campaigns, and now he plays his home game in Coors Field. Cha-ching! Sure, he's on the short side of a first-base platoon with Ben Paulsen, won't see any playing time at third unless something awful happens to Nolan Arenado and the Rockies would have to be absolutely desperate to put him in the outfield, so his paths to at-bats are limited. Sure, even in Coors he's probably still a batting average liability. Still ...

Anthony Gose, Det - Gose is one of those players whose fantasy value could benefit from addition by subtraction. He's always struggled against same-side pitching, but with Cameron Maybin now around to platoon with him in center field (assuming Maybin can stay healthy), Gose's .261/.326/.379 slash line against righties the last three seasons means you can collect his steals without worrying too much about what he does to your batting average.

Max Stassi, Hou - Deep leagues mean finding two catchers, and that's really the only reason Stassi makes the cut on this list. He strikes out too much to ever be anything but a liability in batting average, but the power is legit, and it's not like Jason Castro has done much at the plate the last couple of years.

Paulo Orlando, KC -Jarrod Dyson's oblique injury all but guarantees that Orlando will be the Royals' right fielder when Opening Day dawns. The over-age rookie made quite the impression last year, but so far his world-class speed hasn't turned into anything but triples yet, which isn't terribly useful in most fantasy leagues. With extra playing time, though, he could be a 10 HR, 10 SB kind of guy.

Nick Tropeano, LAA - The last couple years, one of the areas in which I look for value is pitchers who have survived the more extreme hitter's parks in the PCL. After posting a 9.82 K/9 at Salt Lake City last year before his solid but hardly eye-popping stint in the majors, Tropeano is near the top of my list of potential surprise pitchers this year. As someone who had a prospect pedigree heading into last year, his salary range is a little different than your typical second-half FAAB buy, but if you have him cheap I recommend hanging onto him, even if he's headed into spring training without a clear rotation spot with the Angels.

Alex Guerrero, LAD - To be honest, the Dodgers don't really have anyone who fits the bill for this column. Scott Van Slyke is a decent lefty-killer but has no real path to a starting job, or even a consistent platoon. Howie Kendrick is the kind of vanilla veteran who can be undervalued at auction, but not to the point of costing below $5 in any kind of deep format. Guerrero at least has the benefit of possessing some theoretical upside, but he'll really only have consideration as a keeper if he gets traded to a club that can find room for him in their starting nine, and his contract makes such a trade difficult.

Derek Dietrich, Mia - Dietrich is on the very raggedy edge of keeper viability. He's got some pop, and some position flex, and if he winds up on the strong side of a platoon he'll have decent value. That said, his odds of seeing more than 300 at-bats are pretty slim, even on a Marlins roster scrounging to find help for Giancarlo Stanton. In a parallel universe, Derek Dietrich might have been Daniel Murphy, but in this one he's only worth protecting in the deepest of formats.

Matt Garza, Mil - So, yes, Garza's 2015 probably wrecked more than a few fantasy rosters, and it's completely understandable if you want nothing to do with him. But if he got dumped, and you took a cheap chance on him, you're still looking at a pitcher who didn't lose any velocity last year, set a career high in GB:FB ratio and hadn't had an ERA higher than 4.00 in his entire career as a full-time starter prior to last season's collapse. The main cause of his poor showing appeared to be an attempt to partially replace his slider with a far inferior curve, as well as a loss of command within the strike zone. If he can regain his footing in either or both of those areas, a rebound is possible.

Phil Hughes, Min - Hughes' 2015 season wasn't as bad as Garza's, but then again he had a much shorter track record of success heading into the year, so it's just as likely he was cut loose and fished back out of the free-agent pool at some point. The author of all Hughes' pain was a bad back, and he spent the offseason improving his core strength and losing weight in an effort to stay healthy and effective. Those 2014 numbers still look awfully tantalizing if his plan comes together.

Dilson Herrera, NYM - Sometimes, prospects fall into fantasy limbo, and that's what Herrera is facing at this year's auction tables. Depending on your league rules he's probably lost his rookie eligibility, but he has yet to establish himself as a big league starter and will either begin this season on the Mets' bench or back in Triple-A. Neil Walker is purely a one-year obstacle in his path at second base, though, and David Wright's precarious health could always cause another infield shuffle that opens up playing time for Herrera. The outlook on 2016 production isn't good, but there's just too much upside with Herrera to risk cutting him and losing him. If you're firmly in the win-now portion of your success cycle you could try dealing him to a rebuilding club, but otherwise you just have to bite the bullet and protect him anyway.

Aaron Hicks, NYY - So, let's see. The combined age of the Yankees' starting outfield is approximately 200, and Brett Gardner, the healthiest one of the bunch, is missing the first couple weeks of spring training with a wrist issue. Lovely. Hicks will begin the season at the fourth outfielder, but the odds are good that there will be plenty of playing time for him over the course of the season, and he's coming off an 11-HR, 13-SB campaign with Minnesota in less than 100 games. There's definite upside potential.

Ryan Madson, Oak - His return from a three-year exile was one of the stories of 2015, and Madson parlayed it into a fairly sizable contract from Oakland. The depth chart says he'll be the eighth-inning guy, but Sean Doolittle isn't exactly an iron man, and while Billy Beane can make the occasional inexplicable decision it would be weird to pay Madson more than $7 million a year not to close.

Luis Garcia, Phi - Garcia's control in the majors has been poor, but he has a big fastball and a slider that generates ground balls by the bushel. He's also got an unsettled bullpen around him, and David Hernandez is only the closer by default. Someone could easily emerge as the next Ken Giles from the Phillies' back-end mess, and Garcia is just an uptick in control away from being that guy.

Mike Morse, Pit - After flopping in Miami last year, Morse looked a little better in Pittsburgh down the stretch and now finds himself heading into spring on the short side of a first-base platoon with John Jaso. The idea of Jaso seeing significant at-bats for a contending team seems, well, far-fetched, especially considering his lack of experience at the position defensively, so Morse could win a bigger share of the job if he can find his power stroke again.

Travis Jankowski, SD - The talent exodus from San Diego in the offseason leaves Jankowski as the default center fielder, and he has the glove to keep the job. You're not interested in his glove, though, you're interested in the 34 bases he stole across three levels last year, and the 71 (!) he swiped at High-A in 2013. He's got no power, and even if he hits at the top of the order the Padres' lineup behind him could struggle to bring him home, but those steals can't be dismissed.

Hunter Strickland, SF - The 2016 poster boy for Closers of the Future, Strickland shook off his disastrous 2014 postseason to become the high-octane arm in the Giants' bullpen last year. Santiago Casilla fell into the closer job last season and could just as easily fall out of it with a couple rough outings, and as with Pedro Strop above, Strickland's potential as a high-K set-up man gives him a solid value floor even if the save opportunities never arrive.

Franklin Gutierrez, Sea - Intestinal issues cost him all 2014 and seemed to have derailed his once-promising career, but Gutierrez stayed relatively healthy last year and slugged 15 home runs in 59 games. Jinkies. The Mariners have a lot of slap-hitting left-handers in their projected starting outfield, so while there's no obvious path to a starting job for Gutierrez, he could see plenty of action against left-handed pitching. The speed he once had is gone, but the 32-year-old clearly still has some juice in his bat.

Jedd Gyorko, StL - After being picked up from the Padres in the offseason, Gyorko seems destined for a utility role off the bench with the Cards, but that's not the worst thing. His power remains legit, and he seems like exactly the kind of faded prospect that St. Louis will rebuild into a key cog in their perpetual success machine. Double-digit home runs and multi-position eligibility at a cheap salary can be a key cog in successful fantasy rosters, too.

Steven Souza, TB - There was enough buzz around Souza heading into last season that he might not have come cheap at the auction table, but injuries and an obscene strikeout rate dampened that enthusiasm in a hurry. If you've got him at a reasonable price, he still has a starting job for the Rays, should be able to produce at least double digits in home runs and steals and if his K-rate returns to being merely bad like it was in the minors, he might not be a batting average sink, either. That's a lot of upside wrapped up in one package, even if it does come with a fair amount of risk.

Derek Holland, Tex - Having started just 15 games the last two seasons, Holland's a bit of a forgotten man in the Rangers' rotation, what with Cole Hamels still around and Yu Darvish making his return and all. The ongoing shoulder issues are definitely worrying, but he showed flashes of his 2013 form last year, including an 11-K, zero-walk, three-hit shutout at the end of August. That's the kind of upside that drives endgame bidding wars, when a couple of owners realize they have too much money left and no big names left to spend it on.

Dalton Pompey, Tor - He's struggled in his brief major league stints over the last couple seasons, but Pompey's career line at Triple-A (.297/.375/.373 with 22 steals in 77 games) is a lot more encouraging. Michael Saunders can never stay healthy and Kevin Pillar has to prove he's not a one-year wonder, and the Jays could also use a leadoff hitter, so there should be plenty of opportunity this year for Pompey to finally begin establishing himself in the bigs.

Tanner Roark, Was - A 15-game winner in 2014, Roark got bumped back to the bullpen last year and never seemed to get comfortable, even when injuries to the rest of the staff allowed him to occasionally return to the rotation. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, which limits his upside, but with only retread Bronson Arroyo posing any kind of challenge to his spot this spring, Roark should be able to find his groove and become a solid back-end rotation option again. As with 2014, if he can make 30-plus starts, the lineup around him could bring him plenty of victories even if he can't produce a sub-3.00 ERA again.