This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets & Expert Picks
for Friday, June 14
We do not have the most fascinating set of matchups in MLB this weekend, though Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles might be a World Series preview. You can wager on it, in fact, with DraftKings paying +3000 on "BAL Orioles beat PHI Phillies" and the same +3000 on the reverse (and it actually happened all the way back in 1983). Dodgers beat Yankees at +1200 carries the shortest odds, followed by +1400 on the flip side.
But I digress. How about we look at a World Series rematch between the two teams that battled in the 2002 Fall Classic.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels
The mediocre Giants continue their quest to capture one of the two readily available NL Wild Card slots. Perhaps all three slots remain up for grabs as the Braves' offense now can barely hit its way out of a paper bag. On the opposite side of the field we have an Angels team that... still plays in Anaheim near Disneyland, but goes by "Los Angeles." I struggle to find much complimentary to say about them, but I will try.
Shohei Ohtani, of course, has left the building. Mike Trout sits on IL mending his torn meniscus. Do any Angels ever return from the IL? Anthony Rendon, Miguel Sano and Brandon Drury all began the season as regulars and they remain out as well.
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Not like any of them besides Trout really lit the world on fire when they played, but the cupboard looks pretty bare now. Taylor Ward at .253/.331/.452 with 12 homers is a solid player who at age 30 will likely get traded and slot in nicely with a contender. He remains in Anaheim for now, though he is dinged up and has missed a couple games this week. Beyond that Luis Rengifo has hit .315 with 17 steals, though a .358 BABIP vs. a career .288 mark and a .261 xBA suggest he has overstated numbers. It also comes with just four homers on three barrels and subpar 33.3-percent HardHit%.
Speaking of statistics that overstate actual performance, we have today's starter, Tyler Anderson. After a difficult first season in Anaheim, he has rebounded in a big way in 2024 with five wins and a 2.63 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, down from 5.43 and 1.59, respectively, in 2023. Unfortunately the ERA estimators see much less improvement, with xERA at 4.64 and SIERA at 5.11. He carries a K rate of just 16%, though his SwStr% of 11.6 percent says maybe more Ks will come. Anderson has never been a high-velo K machine, but in his effective years he walked relatively few and combined it with low-quality contact. Neither is the case now as he carries a 9.9-percent BB rate vs. 4.8 percent in 2022 with the Dodgers, while has Barrel rate has doubled from 4.9 percent to 9.8 percent and HardHit% from 28.5 percent to a still-OK 35.7 percent. Put it all together and he really needs good batted-ball luck in a given game to succeed.
The Giants counter with Spencer Howard. The one-time top Phillies prospect has struggled to establish himself in MLB over the years, but has re-emerged as a stopgap short-outing starter (and follower) for the Giants this year. Howard has pitched successfully in the small sample size of 13.1 innings over three outings, to the tune of 2.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but just 9 Ks on a 10.3-percent SwStrk%. Howard has yielded four barrels in that short time, with a very high 92.2 EV against and 48.8-percent HardHit%, and his 4.48 SIERA reflects all that.
The Giants at 102 wRC+ have a nearly league-average offense, though that goes up to 116 vs. lefties. Heliot Ramos came up May 8 during a rash of Giants outfield injuries and has emerged as San Francisco's best hitter since then with a .305 average, six homers, 24 RBI and a .384 wOBA. He has torched lefties in 37 PA, hitting four of those homers with a .585 wOBA. The one-time uber prospect has struggled with Ks in the minors, and his 29.6-percent K rate with the Giants only remains tenable if he continues to mash the pitches he does make contact with. Wilmer Flores has had a difficult season overall at .218/.289/.335 , but has gotten hot lately with a .255/.321/.489 triple slash in 53 plate appearances since May 23. Plus, he has made a career of hitting well vs. lefties with a .341 wOBA.
The Pick
Over 4.5, F5 Innings
The Giants' moneyline tempts me, but I do not totally trust Howard, despite the fact that I got him in the middle of a FAAB waterfall in a Main Event last Sunday. The Giants have hit lefties well in general this season and have cashed nicely on F5 Inning Over tickets vs. southpaws with a 14-6 record and 35.1 percent ROI as per VSiN. They have also gone 22-12, 22.6 percent in F5 Overs at home, and 28-10, with a best in MLB 39.9 percent ROI in F5s in night games.
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