This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB Expert Picks for April 22
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Through four weeks of action, it is obvious that there are a few extremely good teams, a few historically poor teams, and then the rest of the field destined for a record between 10 games under to 10 games over .500. There is no parity in MLB this season and the series between the Chicago White Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies demonstrates that fact.
In the three-game series sweep the Phillies outscored the CWS 24-7 and the first two games saw the Phillies' starters Alan Trumbull and their ace Zack Wheeler take no-hitters into the seventh inning. The Phillies outhit the CWS, 30-13, including five home runs to just one for the CWS. For the season, the White Sox are batting an anemic .190 and only the 2022 Arizona Diamondbacks hit worse (.177) over their first 20 games spanning the past 20 seasons. They have been outscored by 65 runs, marking the third worst and are averaging a horrid 2.15 RPG ranking second worst over the past 20 seasons.
The Phillies (14-8) have a league-best current six-game win streak and trail the Atlanta Braves (14-6) by one game in the NL East Division race. The Pittsburgh Pirates (11-11) had their hot start erased by their current league-worst six-game losing streak. In the AL, the Cleveland Guardians (16-6) lead the Central Division by three games and have the best win percentage in MLB by virtue of their league-best four-game win streak. The Los Angeles Angels (9-13) are riding a league-worst four-game losing streak. All five teams in the AL East have winning records.
The Best MLB Bet for Padres-Rockies
The Colorado Rockies start a four-game series against their NL West Divisional rival San Diego Padres with the first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET, Monday at Coors Field in Denver Colorado. The market has priced the Padres as -190 favorites and the Rockies as +160 underdogs with a posted total of 10.5 runs.
The bad teams in any season are not going to lose every game and they will at some point achieve winning streaks. One of those bad teams is on my radar for the Monday card. Based on win percentage the bad teams are the CWS (3-18), the Miami Marlins (6-17) and the Colorado Rockies (5-17), who are active today based on the following sports betting algorithm.
The Monday MLB betting Algorithm
This betting algorithm has produced a 21-20 record, but by averaging a 178-underdog wager has earned a highly profitable 44 percent ROI, making the Dime Bettor a $23,440 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on home underdogs of at least +150 using the moneyline.
· Both teams are members of the same league.
· The underdog is averaging fewer than one home run per game.
· The underdog has scored no more than a single run in three or more of their last six games.
If our underdog has won no more than three of their past 10 games, they improve to a 17-15 record averaging a +178 underdog bet and earning a 51 percent ROI, making the Dime Bettor a huge profit of $20,380 on just 32 bets over the past five seasons.
Who Are the Starters For this Game?
Dylan Cease will be the starter for the Padres and is off to a solid start with a 2-1 record in four starts with a 1.99 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 27 strikeouts. In each of his last three starts he has completed six innings of work and allowed just three earned runs, but he is pitching at mile-high altitude where the Rockies' offense performs vastly better then when on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Rockies are batting .279 in home games as compared to just .227 in road games. They have hit 199 home runs at home as compared to 129 home runs on the road.
Left-hander Austin Gomber will have the ball for the Rockies and is 0-1 in four starts with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP for the season. He was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth round (135th overall) of the 2014 Amateur Draft out of Florida Atlantic University. He is an imposing figure on the hill standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 220 pounds. What he does best is keeping the ball down in the strike zone, which generates a high number of ground ball outs. The No. 1 key to pitching well at Coors Filed and avoiding the home run derby is to keep the ball down in the lower third of the strike zone.
What The Predictive Model Projects
In this game the predictive model projects that the Rockies will have at least one multiple-run inning and that Gomber will complete five or more innings. In past home games, the Rockies are 94-34 (73 percent) averaging a +111 wager earning a highly profitable 52 percent ROI and earning the Dime Bettor $88,590 in profits when they have met that pair of performance measures over the past five seasons. If they scored first in these games, the Rockies produce a 57-15 (79 percent) record averaging a +105 wager earning a 59 percent ROI that has made the Dime Bettor a $54,470 profit over the past five seasons.
The Player Prop Bets for this Matchup
· Bet the Padres Fernando Tatis Over 2.5 total bases priced at -105 vig at DraftKings.
· Bet the Rockies Charlie Blackmon to hit a home run priced at +430 at FanDuel.
· Bet the Rockies Brenton Doyle to hit a home run priced at +560 at FanDuel.
· Bet the Rockies Ryan McMahon to have two or more hits priced at +240 at FanDuel.
