Regan's Rumblings: Offseason Thoughts

Every offseason is interesting in baseball. Last winter we had one of the more top-heavy free agent starting pitching classes than I can remember in many years. The likes of David Price, Zack Greinke, and Johnny Cueto all changed teams. This year the top three starters are probably Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, and Ivan Nova. More on that later. Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion top the list of hitters, and baseball's two best closers are set to hit free agency – Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. The overall lack of depth could mean more trades than normal, so let's take a look at a few scenarios as we head down the stretch.

The Ryan Braun – Yasiel Puig trade goes through

At this point, there seems to be too much chatter for this deal to not go down this offseason. I imagine the only reason it didn't happen in August was probably because the Brewers were asking for more young talent than the Dodgers were willing to surrender. According to reports, the deal would be:

Dodgers get OF Ryan Braun

Brewers get OF Yasiel Puig, P Brandon McCarthy, and a couple prospects

McCarthy is owed $11.5 million in each of 2017 and 2018 and would be included for financial reasons, with the Brewers hoping he remains healthy and effective enough to flip at the August trade deadline. The prospects are a key piece here, as the Brewers would only control Puig through 2018, and it seems somewhat unlikely they'd be contenders before his contract expires. Of course they would probably hope he has a huge first half to build trade value as well. The key is the prospects. If they are named Cody Bellinger and Willie Calhoun for example, this one may sting for the Dodgers. If they are mid-level guys, then this makes much less sense for the Brewers.

Ultimately I think the deal ends up as follows:

Ryan Braun and some amount of cash for Puig, McCarthy, Trevor Oaks, and D.J. Peters. The Dodgers get the RH bat they've been looking for and the Brewers get salary relief and four lottery tickets.

Red Sox sign 1B/OF/DH Mark Trumbo to a five-year $100 million deal

With DH David Ortiz set to retire, the Red Sox will certainly be in the market for a replacement (and pitching) this winter. Edwin Encarnacion seems to be a good fit, but Trumbo is three years younger and visions of him hitting balls against and over the Green Monster ultimately lead the Red Sox to his doorstep. Trumbo leads the majors in home runs with 41 and is batting .249/.312/.518 overall. The low OBP makes it unlikely Trumbo will approach the $161 million that the Orioles gave Chris Davis last winter, but given the power and market scarcity, I can see Trumbo easily topping nine figures in his next deal.

One caveat will be what the Red Sox plan on doing with Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is set to post the first 25-100 season of his career in a resurgent year in which he's batting .285/.356/.490 while playing his third position in three years, first base. His -6.5 UZR/150 would seem to suggest that Ramirez should not be playing the field at all at this point in his career, so they will need to make a decision on status before pursuing DH options on the open market.

Pirates trade OF Andrew McCutchen to the Giants for P Tyler Beede, 1B Chris Shaw, and lower-level prospects

This isn't a response to the Dodgers trade for Braun, but perhaps it will be spun that way in the media. The Giants will be looking for an outfielder this winter with Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco both set to hit the open market. The Giants certainly have not been shy to trade prospects, and dealing for a guy like McCutchen would certainly make a huge splash. On the other hand, the Giants also have five players on the books for $18.5 million or more next year.

From the Pirates side, it would be difficult to deal a fan favorite like McCutchen, but it makes sense from both financial and personnel perspectives. McCutchen has a 2018 team option that will likely be exercised by whatever team he's employed by at the time, so after this year, he's owed $28.5 million over two years. That's certainly reasonable, but this is a mid-market team that has holes up the middle as well as in the rotation and bullpen. Adding a veteran starter to the Cole/Taillon/Glasnow trio is a must, and after dealing Mark Melancon last month, another reliever is a need. In the outfield, Austin Meadows looks to be ready to contribute next year and will need a spot. Should McCutchen be put out there as a trade option, a number of teams will be calling the Pirates, so if teams with deeper farm systems have interest, the Giants could find themselves outbid pretty easily.

Arizona trades P Zack Greinke to the Orioles for Ubaldo Jimenez

Okay, hear me out. If my math is right, Greinke is owed $172.5 million after this season while Jimenez is on the books for just $13.5 million next year.

Why Arizona would do this: Money. They'd rid themselves of a contract that looked like a mistake the moment it was signed. If you believe reports, the Dodgers offered $155 million and the Giants backed up an armored car to his house as well. It's possible Arizona could undergo a regime change this offseason, with the new GM wanting to come in and potentially allocate the Greinke money elsewhere. They also get Jimenez to offset some of the salary difference, and he could either be an immediate DFA or potentially a trade asset should he perform in his contract year.

Why Baltimore would do this: The Orioles would love to pair an ace (if he still is one) with their young pitchers, and such a player is not available in free agency. The Orioles seem to have the hitters, but it's been a long time since they had that true #1 guy on the mound.

Ivan Nova lands a four-year deal from a mid-market team

If you look over the free agent starting pitcher market, it's a wasteland of has-beens, injured guys, and back-end starters. If I had to rank my top five in order, they would be Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, Andrew Cashner (I guess), and ….well, Bartolo Colon? Maybe Doug Fister? So when you see a guy like Nova make the move from the AL to the NL with aplomb, the 30-year-old is probably looking at a four-year $65 million deal. Crazy.

After pitching to a 4.90 ERA with the Yankees, Nova was traded to the Pirates and was given a massive dose of pitching coach Ray Searage. Like others before him, Nova has thrived in Pittsburgh, posting a 2.41 ERA in eight starts, posting a ridiculous 43:3 K:BB in 52.1 innings in the process. Nova did have a 75:15 K:BB with the Yankees, though he struggled with the home run ball in the AL East, which isn't the first time that's happened to a pitcher. I'm not sure a mid-market team making Ivan Nova its highest-paid player is a good idea, but given market scarcity, five years isn't out of the question here.

Angels sell off everyone with value not named Mike Trout

The good news I guess is that the Angels are done paying C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver, and will be done with Josh Hamilton after 2017. The bad news is all over the place however, including perhaps baseball's worst farm system, and most of their pitching being injured. Pitchers such as Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, and Matt Shoemaker could form a nice core at some point, but how many will ever be healthy at once? On the hitting side, you have Trout putting up an MVP-caliber season as usual, but then there's Albert Pujols and his .771 OPS (but also a 29-110 season). C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, and Yunel Escobar bring different things to the table, but none are going to be difference-makers. Andrelton Simmons hit 17 home runs in 2013, but just 14 in the three years since. Basically, this is a team in dire need of an infusion of young talent. They may not want to deal cheap, young talent, but I can see the following heading out of Anaheim:

Yunel Escobar – Batting .317/.370/.402, the Angels will exercise his $7 million option and ideally, look to trade him. They could then let the likes of Jeffrey Marte and Kaleb Cowart fight for at-bats.

Huston Street – This one is a no-brainer. Cam Bedrosian showed closer ability before he was hurt and Street isn't going to be part of the next Angels contender. He needs to be gone.

Ricky Nolasco – This one was a head-scratcher. Given the scarcity of starting pitching on the free agent market, maybe some team will offer a low-level prospect if the Angels agree to eat a good portion of Nolasco's remaining contract, but unless the young pitchers continue to struggle staying healthy, there's no reason to keep guys like this around.

Kole Calhoun – He's a nice player with three years of team control remaining, but if the Angles can flip him for two or three prospects with risk and upside, they should do it.

As for a theoretical Trout deal, I just don't see it happening. The Cubs and Red Sox would seemingly be leading contenders, but the first names mentioned in those deals will be Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts. I don't see those guys going anywhere.

Texas signs DH Edwin Encarnacion to a five-year $130 million deal

Boston is another possibility, but with Prince Fielder retired and Carlos Beltran and Mitch Moreland hitting free agency, the Rangers would seemingly be among E-5's suitors. He's seemingly a guy who can roll out of bed and hit 35 homers and drive in 100+ runs. He's struck out in just 16.2% of his career plate appearances, an amazingly low number these days for a power hitter. With lefty swingers such as Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, and Shin-Soo Choo, the right-handed Encarnacion would appear to be a perfect fit.

Phillies trade Jeanmar Gomez, Hector Neris saves 35 games and strikes out over 100

Gomez has been a huge surprise to fantasy owners with his 36 saves, but with a 3.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he would appear to be living on borrowed time as a closer. In his last outing, Gomez faced three batters and all three scored. His 6.0 K/9 is far from ideal for a closer, and his solid 2.4 GB/FB rate can only carry him so far. Look for the Phillies to part ways with him this offseason and look to Neris to fill the void. Neris meanwhile has a 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and an 11.4 K/9. Those are closer numbers. As for the rest of the Phillies, they are going to be a very interesting team to watch this winter. Other than Matt Harrison's $13 million (who the Phillies took on in the Cole Hamels deal), the Phillies owe buyouts to Ryan Howard ($10 million) and Charlie Morton ($1 million) and that's it. The rest of the roster is young, controllable talent and the farm system is vastly improved. As a result, they could be major players in free agency, though waiting for a better free agent class might be the prudent call.

Mariners are the surprise big spender this winter, signing both OF Yoenis Cespedes and P Jeremy Hellickson

The Mariners have already increased their payroll from $90 million to $142 million since 2014 and they appear to have some wiggle room in the budget for next year. With Seth Smith and Nori Aoki set to hit free agency, the Mariners could certainly look to target a big right-handed bat like Cespedes to compliment Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. On the pitching side, a solid mid-rotation guy like Hellickson would take some of the pressure off the likes of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. The Mariners could probably use improvement at the top of the lineup more than another slugger, but having four guys with 30+ HR power would certainly help mask that deficiency.

Yankees trade C Brian McCann to the Indians for mid-level prospects

With the emergence of Gary Sanchez, the Yankees appear to have their catcher both of the future and of the present. McCann meanwhile is batting just .235/.331/.409, but he's just one homer short of his ninth consecutive 20+ home run season, so heading into his age-33 season, he does appear to have something left in the tank. The Yankees could keep him around for his veteran presence in addition to the power, but opening up the DH slot for younger talent is another option. Though Mark Teixeira is retiring and Alex Rodriguez is seemingly also done, the Yankees do have Greg Bird returning next year.

The Indians tried unsuccessfully to trade for Jonathan Lucroy, and probably would have done so even if Yan Gomes (shoulder) were healthy. Gomes is batting a paltry .165 in 249 at-bats and looks to be a shell of the guy who hit .294/.345/.481 just three years ago. The Indians could use a guy like McCann if they feel he can catch 3-4 days a week and DH the others.