This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
This week I'm taking a look at a handful of young players who have made their MLB debuts this month (or perhaps in August) and forecasting what sort of value we could get from them the rest of this year, in 2018 and beyond. In many cases, these aren't elite prospects along the lines of someone like Yoan Moncada, but they are still players that could provide a boost this month and further into next season…
Greg Allen, OF, CLE
He may still not be quite an everyday player, but the season-ending injury to Bradley Zimmer (hand) should result in more playing time for Allen (and others). The 24-year-old was hitting a disappointing .264/.344/.357 in Double-A a year after he hit .298/.424/.402 in 37 games at the same level the year prior. Allen has swiped as many as 45 bases in a minor league season (2016), and he's always posted excellent walk and strikeout rates, giving Allen a chance at being a future leadoff man. He's 5-for-20 with a home run so far this year for the Indians in sporadic playing time, including 3-for-5 versus southpaws. The switch-hitter does have the upside of an everyday player with a high OBP, lower power, and plenty of speed, but despite the Zimmer injury, it's still looking unlikely he'll see regular at-bats down the stretch. He'll play against lefties for sure, but given Lonnie Chisenhall is healthy and Austin Jackson is batting .306/.371/.489, Allen's shot at every day at-bats will likely
This week I'm taking a look at a handful of young players who have made their MLB debuts this month (or perhaps in August) and forecasting what sort of value we could get from them the rest of this year, in 2018 and beyond. In many cases, these aren't elite prospects along the lines of someone like Yoan Moncada, but they are still players that could provide a boost this month and further into next season…
Greg Allen, OF, CLE
He may still not be quite an everyday player, but the season-ending injury to Bradley Zimmer (hand) should result in more playing time for Allen (and others). The 24-year-old was hitting a disappointing .264/.344/.357 in Double-A a year after he hit .298/.424/.402 in 37 games at the same level the year prior. Allen has swiped as many as 45 bases in a minor league season (2016), and he's always posted excellent walk and strikeout rates, giving Allen a chance at being a future leadoff man. He's 5-for-20 with a home run so far this year for the Indians in sporadic playing time, including 3-for-5 versus southpaws. The switch-hitter does have the upside of an everyday player with a high OBP, lower power, and plenty of speed, but despite the Zimmer injury, it's still looking unlikely he'll see regular at-bats down the stretch. He'll play against lefties for sure, but given Lonnie Chisenhall is healthy and Austin Jackson is batting .306/.371/.489, Allen's shot at every day at-bats will likely have to wait until sometime in 2018.
Alex Verdugo, OF, LAD
Potential rant coming here. Let's face it: Curtis Granderson is of the primary reasons why the Dodgers have been hot garbage the last two-plus weeks. Since coming over from the Mets, Granderson is 8-for-72 with 24 strikeouts and four home runs. Inexplicably, he's even been hitting leadoff at times. Is it that hard to set this lineup 90%+ of the time?:
CF Chris Taylor
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
1B Cody Bellinger
C Yasmani Grandal
2B Logan Forsythe
LF Alex Verdugo
RF Yasiel Puig
Please forward to Dave Roberts as needed.
Anyway, why not give Verdugo a shot? Granderson stinks and Joc Pederson is hitting .211. Verdugo is 3-for-16 with a home run in very sporadic at-bats, but after batting .314/.389/.436 in Triple-A, it's probably time he received regular at-bats, if only to see whether he belongs on the playoff roster (if they even get there). The lefty-swinging Verdugo hit .277/.378/.436 versus southpaws in Triple-A, so they wouldn't likely even need to platoon him. In terms of 2018, Verdugo would seem to stand a good chance at breaking camp with the big club as a starting outfielder.
J.P. Crawford, SS, PHI
Crawford is just 4-for-20 with a 7:0 K:BB so far with the Phillies, though given they are playing for 2018, Crawford should still get plenty of playing time as the Phillies evaluate their potential 2018 roster. Ignore Crawford's overall Triple-A numbers and note that since the beginning of July, Carl's cousin hit .285/.385/.544 with 13 homers in just 228 at-bats. His excellent minor league ratios (13.1% BB%, 14.3% K%) would indicate potential to hit at or near the top of the lineup, though given the recent power development, Crawford could also hit further down in the lineup in a run-producing spot. In terms of 2018, things get a bit tricky. The Phillies appear to really like Freddie Galvis' glove at shortstop. For now at least, Cesar Hernandez has second base locked up (with top prospect Scott Kingery knocking at the door), and then you have Maikel Franco at third base. Franco is batting just .229/.283/.400, so he could be vulnerable, and of course, anyone could be traded to upgrade the pitching staff. Crawford is still just 22, so he could even open 2018 in Triple-A, but he's certainly still a big part of the team's future.
Willie Calhoun, 2B/OF, TEX
Think the Dodgers could use this guy's bat right about now? Sigh… Calhoun had his contract selected from Triple-A this week, and he should see time at second base, the outfield, and probably some DH. Calhoun stands just 5'8", but there's thunder in that bat to the tune of 31 home runs this year. He also hit .300 at the Triple-A level while striking out just 11.4% of the time and waling at a 7.9% clip. He's also made great progress against southpaws this year, posting an .899 OPS against them while in Triple-A with the Dodgers. Given the presence of Roughned Odor at second base, Calhoun's Texas future likely likes in left field or even DH, though the club will more than likely take a look at his defensive chops in the outfield as they evaluate their plans for 2018. Showing this sort of power at the age of 22 puts a pretty high ceiling on a guy expected to play half his games in a hitter's park.
Luiz Gohara, SP, ATL
The Braves have such an abundance of young pitching that Gohara can tend to get lost in the shuffle. He did make his MLB debut this past week, getting touched for six runs in four innings by the Rangers. Gohara walked four in his debut, and that's the primary issue he struggled at times with in the minors. A 6'3" lefty that can average 96.5 mph with his fastball is worth watching closely, but given he just turned 21, there are likely going to be growing pains. Gohara has risen from High-A to the big leagues this year, posting a 2.62 ERA in 123.2 minor league innings with a 10.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. If he can continue to refine his command and control, Gohara has all the tools to be a top-of-the-rotation level pitcher, and there aren't too many of those types around. For this year though, I would expect further going pains, and given he recorded just 69.2 innings last year, he may also be nearing an unknown innings limit, putting him at risk of being shut down. In 2018, he'll likely be among several candidates for two or three rotation spots.
Austin Hays, OF, BAL
The Orioles farm system began to show some signs of life this year with Hays and Ryan Mountcastle taking big steps forward and forming a solid 1-2 prospect combo. Hays made it to the big leagues first, batting a stellar .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 128 games split between High-A and Double-A. The fact that he struck out just 15% of the time is highly encouraging, though to caveat, he also walked in just 4.4% of his plate appearances. Hays won't steal many bases, but his raw power and ability to put the bat on the ball gives him a pretty impressive profile. He just turned 22 in July, so the Orioles may just be giving him a small taste of the big leagues before having him open 2018 in Triple-A, but for a guy who lasted until the 91st pick in the 2016 amateur draft, the Orioles look to have made one of the draft's better post-first round grabs. In terms of 2017, he's not likely to supplant Trey Mancini in left field, but in right, Seth Smith is just 2-for-20 this month, so we could start to see more of Hays in the lineup.
Dillon Maples, RP, CHC
One ugly outing leaves Maples with a 23.14 ERA in three appearances, but he should still be a big part of the team's future bullpen situation as he gets his feet wet this season. Maples has averaged an impressive 97.2 mph with his fastball in the big leagues, and between three levels of the minors this year, Maples posted a 2.27 ERA with a 14.2 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9. Walks have always been an issue given his career 5.6 BB/9, but Maples has an elite fastball capable of giving him a top-10 closer ceiling. What could derail that ceiling is clearly his lack of control. Cubs fans will remember the name Carlos Marmol, as the ex-big leaguer once recorded 38 and 34 saves in back-to-back seasons (2010-2011) with BB/9's of 6.0 and 5.8 respectively. Marmol's control eventually got even worse, and at the age of 31, he likely threw his last big-league pitch in 2014. Maples would be in danger of a similar career path should he not make the appropriate adjustments, but the upside is intriguing.
Anthony Santander, OF, BAL
A Rule 5 pick, Santander has missed a good chunk of the season with a forearm injury, but he's back now and should stick on the roster after having just 15 games played above Class-A ball. While on a 15-game Double-A rehab assignment, Santander batted .380/.458/.780 with five homers and five doubles in just 59 plate appearances. In addition, last year Santander hit a strong .290/.368/.494 last season in High-A Lynchburg, including 20 homers and 10 stolen bases. As a former teenage signee out of Venezuela back in 2011, Santander is a pretty interesting minor league stash, but it's unlikely that his bat is ready for big league pitching. Expect sporadic playing time this year and for Santander to open 2018 in Double-A, but he has the talent to find himself as a top-100 prospect at some point in 2018.
Sandy Alcantara, SP/RP, STL
The Cardinals have developed some pretty good arms over the years, and Alcantara can continue that tradition. His arm is electric, and in his first big league appearance, the 21-year-old averaged 97.9 mph with his fastball. He worked mostly as a starter in Double-A this year, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 125.1 innings. With that sort of heat, we would've expected more than a 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, so there's still work to be done in harnessing his raw ability, especially if the team plans to keep him in the starting rotation. The Cardinals seem content to have him get his feet wet in low leverage relief situations this year, making it likely he'll return to the minors to open 2018. Ultimately it seems likely we'll see him in a relief role long-term, and with that fastball, he could eventually work his way into a closer role.
Luis Santos, P, TOR
Santos is a 26-year-old pitcher with an average (at best) fastball, but he's strung together three solid relief appearances, going 8.1 innings while allowing just one run while posting a 7:1 K:BB. Santos had a 4.07 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 in 108.1 innings at the Triple-A level this year. For 2017, they Blue Jays appear content to leave him in the bullpen, but given that the last two rotation spots are currently occupied by very underwhelming options, Brett Anderson and Joe Biagini, Santos could see a start or two down the stretch. Either that or he works his way up the bullpen hierarchy and replaces the struggling Roberto Osuna, though he'd have to bypass several guys ahead of him on the depth chart to do so. Longer term, Santos' minor league numbers don't point to having star potential in the rotation, but if he can get a couple starts this month, he could be a decent streaming option.
