Regan's Rumblings: Injured Players to Consider

An SB Nation poll indicated that 23 percent of fans did not anticipate baseball picking up until 2021. A Twitter poll by Bill James was less optimistic at nearly 42 percent. Either way, the virus-related news continues to dominate our world, and it seems that by the day, hope that our great game returns anytime soon is waning. Other than isolating ourselves as much as possible, there's nothing much we can do now, so let's talk some baseball.

If you're in a keeper/dynasty league that allows free-agent pickups before the season starts, here are some players to consider trading for or picking up.  Why not burn roster spots on injured guys with upside?

Tommy John Surgeries

Andres Munoz, RP, Padres
Est. Return: June 1, 2021

Rostering injured relievers normally isn't a great idea, but while you'd have to be in a pretty deep dynasty league to keep Munoz, it might be worth it. He's still just 22 and averaged a ridiculous 99.9 mph with his fastball in an uneven 2019 debut (11.7 K/9, but a 3.91 ERA and 4.3 BB/9). Munoz has shutdown reliever upside, and with Kirby Yates headed toward free agency after this season, perhaps Munoz gets his shot at saves later in 2021.

Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets/Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox
Est. Returns: June 1, 2021

Not all Tommy John survivors make it back and thrive, but Syndergaard and Sale both could be good bets to return to their former top levels. Syndergaard's career seems to have peaked at age 23 when, in 2016, the flamethrower recorded a 2.60 ERA and 218 strikeouts. He had a 202-strikeout season in 2019, but that came with a disappointing 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Sale's violent delivery seemed to make this outcome inevitable, but perhaps the surgery and rehab will only strengthen his elbow and allow the Red Sox ace to put up a few more solid seasons.

Jameson Taillon, SP, Pirates
Est. Return: Opening Day 2021

This is Taillon's second TJ procedure, making him a much bigger risk to return to full health and productivity. If you want to read up on the success rate (it's ugly) of such pitchers, here is a good article by Sports Illustrated. In addition to the two elbow surgeries, Taillon also dealt with testicular cancer and hernia surgery. His best year came in 2018 when he won 14 games with a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 179:46 K:BB in 191 innings. He was also once highly regarded enough to be the second overall pick in the 2010 draft. But can he tap into that talent in his age-29 season next year?

Hunter Greene , SP, Reds
Est. Return: July 1

If there is a 2020 season, Greene could be ready for the start of it. He's been throwing bullpen sessions and reports feeling "stronger and better than ever before." Hyperbole? Perhaps, but he's still just 20, and the body recovers a lot quicker/better when you're 20 versus 30-40. Greene has flashed triple digits on the radar gun, and at 6-foot-4 has the frame you want to see in a starter. If TJ surgery did the trick and Greene bounces back strong, the Reds could have their ace. Don't expect anything close to a full workload until 2022, but he's an intriguing minor league stash if your league's roster settings allow.

Corbin Martin, SP, Diamondbacks, 
Est. Return: Sept. 1

It's forgivable if you've forgotten about this guy, but he's projectable as a mid-rotation starter, particularly after his July 31, 2019, move to the National League from the Astros. Martin has an impressive minor league resume, recording a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with a 210:60 K:BB in 192 innings since turning pro in 2017. He reached the big leagues last year with the Astros, and though the results weren't great, he fanned 19 in 19.1 innings. The eight home runs did him in, but he did show the ability to generate ground balls in the minors, so perhaps he can recapture that approach in the big leagues.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Yankees
Est. Return: June 1 

And there's our first hitter! Mike Tauchman did a nice job last year filling in for various injured Yankees, but there's not a lot of doubt Hicks returns as the starting center fielder once he's ready. The oft-injured outfielder hit just .235/.325/.443 last year, but he's signed through 2025. It's certainly possible that players like Tauchman, Clint Frazier and even Miguel Andujar impress enough to lead the Yankees to push Hicks into more of a part-time role, but Hicks' contract should at least give him some slack.

Luis Severino, SP, Yankees
Est. Return: June 1, 2021

With 450 strikeouts, Severino was one of fantasy's top performers from 2017-2018. He obviously struggled with arm injuries in 2019, making just three starts, but perhaps the Tommy John surgery will allow him to return to form sometime in 2021. Severino turned 26 in February, so he has youth on his side. He's worth a stash in most leagues considering his team and his past success.

Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals
Est. Return: July 17 

Crazy to think that a guy who averaged 101.2 mph needed Tommy John surgery! Hicks is obviously an interesting guy, as in addition to the fastball, his slider is excellent, and he's even developing a change (that averaged 91.7 mph last year). Hicks showed good improvement last year before getting hurt, holding batters to a meager .163 BAA while improving his BB/9 from 5.2 to 3.5. That's still a few more walks than we'd like to see, but that didn't prevent him recording a 0.94 WHIP. Just imagine if he comes back strong and his control continues to improve. If we have 2020 baseball, I don't expect Hicks to close once he is activated, but he's the overwhelming favorite to lead the team in saves come 2021.

Carlos Rodon, SP, White Sox
Est. Return: July 17

Shoulder and elbow injuries have limited the 2014 No. 3 overall pick to just 39 starts the last three seasons. The lefty has showed promise at times, posting an 11.8 K/9 in seven starts last year, but overall, the injuries and lack of control (career 3.9 BB/9) have left him well short of the upside he showed coming out of college. Rodon seems unlikely to ever reach his lofty prospect status, and indeed, he could find himself in the bullpen once he is fully healthy, but the White Sox will surely give him another shot in the rotation first.

Michael Fulmer, SP, Tigers
Est. Return: July 15

I'm not sure any Tigers are going to be worth rostering in 2021 other than the young pitching talent that is on the way. That said, Fulmer just turned 27 and once projected as having No. 2 starter upside. Of course, that was several years ago, and despite a fastball that has averaged in the 96 mph range, Fulmer's career K/9 is just 7.0. Discouragingly, in his last full season (2018), Fulmer saw his GB% dip five points to 44.2 percent, fueling a rise in his HR rate, which combined with a BB/9 that regressed from 2.2 to 3.1, resulted in a career-high 4.69. Can he come back and return to his 2016 form (3.06 ERA)? At this point it seems unlikely.

Anderson Espinoza, SP, Padres
Est. Return: July 1

A former top international prospect, the Padres once looked to have robbed the Red Sox when they acquired Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, but that was four years ago, and Espinoza hasn't pitched since August 31 … 2016. Still, he's just 22 and once projected as a potential ace, so even though he's now had a pair of Tommy John surgeries, perhaps he's young enough to go on and have a solid career. Seems unlikely, but at least check in on how he's doing when/if he returns.

Other Injuries

Aaron Sanchez, SP, Free Agent (shoulder)
Est. Return: Aug. 1

Sanchez has yet to latch on with a team after September 2019 shoulder surgery, but at age 27, he'll certainly get another chance. Sanchez has totaled just 55 starts the last three seasons due to a variety of injuries, but prior to that, the right-hander had a cumulative 2.86 ERA in 317.1 big league innings, so don't stick a fork in him just yet. With a 4.6 BB/9 since his excellent 2016 season, Sanchez not only needs to recover physically, he also needs to make some mechanical adjustments to recover his control and command.

Domingo German , SP, Yankees (suspension)
Est. return: TBD

German's domestic violence suspension still has 63 games remaining, so whenever the season does begin, it will begin without German in pinstripes. German was a huge free-agent pick-up for fantasy owners in 2019, winning 18 games with a 4.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and solid ratios — 9.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9. German did have serious issues with the HR ball (1.9 HR/9), but who didn't last year? If he can somehow drive his 38.1 GB% up a few ticks, a sub-4.00 ERA is possible.

Cam Bedrosian, RP, Angels (back)
Est. return: May 15

Coming off a 2.48 ERA, Hansel Robles will open as the Angels' closer, but Robles doesn't have a lengthy and consistent track record, leaving the possibility that he could run into trouble and need to be replaced at some point. Bedrosian had a rough spring, but we can probably contribute that in some part to lingering back soreness, and he's expected to be fully healthy once play resumes. It's somewhat concerning that his fastball velocity has trended down in recent years, topping out at 95.5 mph in 2016, but declining to 93.0 in 2019. Despite that, Bedrosian maintained a solid 9.4 K/9. If you want even more optimism, Bedrosian's spin and barrel rates grade out as well above average.