Regan's Rumblings: Buy-Low Candidates

"Buy low, sell high" articles and radio segments are the norm this time of year, as fantasy analysts and experts look at guys performing well above or below expectations and try and project how they will fare the rest of the season. It's effortless to recommend selling high on Trevor Story given that he's not going to hit 60 home runs, but what does "selling high" really look like? I recently fielded a question as to whether someone should accept an offer of Mookie Betts for his Trevor Story and I said unequivocally "yes". Betts is hitting .207 with two home runs while Story is batting .288 with eight long balls, but Betts was a second-round pick in 12-team leagues while Story was chosen as a speculative pick quite a bit later. All in all, perhaps you can sell Story as a 30-plus homer guy given his prospect pedigree and home park, but given the amount of information available and what I see as a huge increase in knowledge among fantasy owners as a result of that information and advanced metrics, it's not always simple to sell high and buy low in many situations.

That said, here are a handful of guys off to slow starts. I'll examine each in terms of performance to date, past performance, and future (rest of season) expectations:

Khris Davis (OF, OAK)

It looks like the Brewers are the ones who sold high here, but can you buy low on Davis? After hitting a career-high 27 home runs on the way to a .247/.323/.505 season in 2015, Davis was traded to the A's, who clearly need that sort of production. Well, through 45 PA's this year, Davis is batting just .143/.200/.167 with no homers, a double, and an 18:2 K:BB. Can he turn things around? Probably. Davis was a pretty streaky hitter last year, as 19 of his 27 homers came in August/September and he hit .198 in June while rallying to hit .290 in August. The A's will give Davis plenty of rope given the only other real power bat they have on the roster right now looks to be Josh Reddick, but fantasy owners should be concerned. Should Davis need to be replaced, Mark Canha and Chris Coghlan would seem to be the two internal options most likely to benefit.

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

Votto went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts on Wednesday, dropping him to a mere .182/.270/.255 with one home run and a 14:7 K:BB in 55 at-bats so far in 2016. Votto's .5 EYE is a far cry from the .96 or greater marks he's had in each of the last four years, but it's not a huge concern at this point. The lack of power, though, is a bit surprising given last year's .227 ISO mark compared to this year's .073. He hit .317 with seven homers in April last year, so slow starts aren't the norm, but when you have a track record of solid performance like Votto, it's probably best to chalk this up to a slow start. Perhaps you can get the Canadian at a discount and reap the inevitable benefits, but it seems doubtful his owners would give much of a discount on three weeks into the season.

Russell Martin (C, TOR)

After hitting a career-high 23 home runs in his first year in the AL East last season, Martin is off to a brutal .136/.204/.136 start with no extra-base hits and a 19:3 K:BB in 49 plate appearances. Martin's strikeout and walk rates are way out of line with career marks (11.5 BB%, 16.5 K%), and obviously the power has yet to materialize. Martin hit just .197 last April, but things seemed to work out so he should be fine. Then again, Martin has a lot of mileage on him as a 33-year-old catcher, so he'll probably see more rest than usual down the stretch. I don't think Martin will end up with Mike Zunino numbers, but he might regress to something like a .220 average with 10 home runs.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA)

I was all-in on Ozuna after all the positive reports of his work with Barry Bonds, encouraging words from manager Don Mattingly, and his .304/.377/.565 spring stat line. After a hitless pinch-hitting appearance Wednesday, Ozuna is now batting .196/.212/.294 in the regular season. His 14:1 isn't too surprising given his career BB% of 5.9, so plate discipline continues to be an issue. Ozuna saw his power output drop from 23 to 10 home runs last year, and the preseason optimism so far this year has faded. At 25, it's far too early to give up on Ozuna's upside, but a guy going backwards with a 0.25 career BB:K is no lock to reach what scouts consider his upside. Fortunately, Ozuna has fans in his manager and pitching coach, but production will be required, otherwise we may see more Ichiro Suzuki than originally anticipated. I'd be okay cutting him loose in non-keeper 12-team mixed leagues.

Ian Desmond (SS/OF, TEX)

Desmond appeared to be one of this winter's biggest bargains, netting just a one-year $8 million deal after turning down a qualifying offer worth millions more. It was thought that a one-year deal where Desmond performed well in a hitter's park would lead to a lucrative multi-year deal next offseason, but so far at least, that's not happening. An 0-for-3 (plus a walk) Wednesday left Desmond with a .132/.207/.151 slash line with no homers, a double, and a 16:5 K:BB. The good news is his 9.4 BB% is over three full percentage points above his career mark, but the strikeouts continue to be an issue. His .189 BABIP will certainly trend back up shortly, but it'd sure be nice to see some power and fewer strikeouts. With Josh Hamilton (knee) and Shin-Soo Choo (calf) returning sometime next month and prospect Lewis Brinson representing another option later in the year, Desmond's time to establish himself as an everyday player is running short. I'm not too optimistic here.

Chris Archer (SP, TB)

Archer was a popular preseason AL Cy Young prediction, but after laying another egg (4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K) in Wednesday's loss to the Red Sox, his ERA now sits at 7.32. While 29 strikeouts in 19.1 innings is a very healthy number, he's also walked 11 and allowed a whopping six home runs. Archer improved his K/9 last year from 8.0 in 2014 to 10.7, and only one awful start late in the year prevented a sub-3.00 ERA. His velocity was up, he generated plenty of ground balls and had a 2.8 BB/9. It was thought he could build on that, and I even predicted a run at 300 strikeouts, but a 5.0 BB/9, a ton of homers, a fastball that's lost 1.6 mph on average over last year, and zero quality starts has most of the baseball world concerned (and rightfully so). I wouldn't sell low at this point and just hope for a turnaround, but sadly, keeping him on ice right now is probably best.

Francisco Liriano (SP, PIT)

While I ponder why Jeff Locke (3 IP, 8 ER Wednesday) continues to get starts, I also have to ponder the slow start from Liriano. In three starts covering 15.1 innings, Liriano has a reasonable 4.11 ERA and 17 strikeouts, but he's also walked 14 and allowed three home runs. Liriano has never been known for his control, but last year's 3.4 BB/9 was an improvement over his 3.9 career mark and he's always generated his share of ground balls. It's safe to say a 33.3% HR/FB rate will trend more toward his 11% career mark over the course of the season, but perhaps a mechanical adjustment is needed to improve his control. If anyone can help, it's pitching coach Ray Searage, though, so look for Liriano to get back on track before long.

Adam Wainwright (SP, STL)

Let's recap some of my RotoWire Staff League keepers shall we? J.J. Hoover ($2), Blake Swihart ($3), C.J. Cron ($3), Hector Olivera ($4), Jorge Soler ($3), Carlos Gomez ($16), Cody Allen ($5), Alex Rodriguez ($5), and Corey Kluber ($14) have all been awful. I did keep J.D. Martinez at $21, but this team is a last-place train wreck.

Anyway, on top of all that, Wainwright was my big pitching buy at what seemed like a reasonable $40 given the crazy inflation in an 18-team league with most teams having multiple cheap keepers. For reference, Kershaw went for $74, the same amount I spent on Wainwright and Robinson Cano combined. Unfortunately, Wainwright is 0-2 through three starts with an 8.27 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. In just 16.1 innings, his K:BB is a poor 9:7. His velocity appears okay, as he's been consistently in the 88-91 mph range with his fastball, but the location just hasn't been there. Wainwright had a 4.80 ERA and 11:6 K:BB in 15 innings this spring, but I obviously wasn't concerned enough to stop bidding at $38. Perhaps he's just shaking off the rust from missing most of 2015 with an Achilles injury, but yes, I am concerned.

Scott Kazmir (SP, LAD)

As a Dodgers fan, I wasn't a huge fan of them giving a guy with a 6.52 ERA last September a three-year contract worth $45 million. In struggling with his velocity and giving up an opposing batting average of .337 in spring, those fears to come to fruition. Since the calendar flipped to April, Kazmir has allowed 10 runs in eight innings over his last two starts after holding the punchless Padres to one hit in six solid innings in the team's second game of the season. Velocity-wise, he's been fine, averaging 90.7 mph on his fastball versus last year's 91.3 mph, but in two games against the Giants, he allowed three homers in one of them and walked four batters in the other. Maybe the Giants just have a really good offense and see the ball well against him, but if the Dodgers need a starter after Kershaw and Kenta Maeda in a playoff series, I'd rather roll Ross Stripling despite his poor last outing. Kazmir isn't a guy I'm optimistic on at all.

Matt Harvey (SP, NYM)

Harvey's triumphant 2015 return from Tommy John surgery included a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and a World Series appearance. With that, Harvey seemed poised to surpass 200 innings and 200 strikeouts this year for the first time, but with a 5.71 ERA and mediocre 9:7 K:BB in 17.1 innings over three starters (0-3 W/L), Harvey is clearly struggling. His fastball velocity is down from 95.9 to 94.3 mph, though again, we often see pitchers build that up over the course of a season, so I don't think this is a physical issue. It's tough to see anyone dropping Harvey in redraft leagues regardless of how shallow the league is, but you're more of a gambler than I am if you use him while he's floundering.

J.J. Hoover (RP, CIN)

Hoover may have more success selling vacuums than getting major league hitters out right now. For those that wait on closers, these are the sort of pitchers you end up with by not drafting Kenley Jansen in the fifth round. Hoover sports a 15.19 ERA in 5.1 innings, having allowed three home runs with a 4:4 K:BB. Somehow it took until April 20, but manager Bryan Price let it be known that the Reds were going with the dreaded closer-by-committee, making guys like Tony Cingrani, Caleb Cotham (my personal favorite), and even Blake Wood worth a few FAAB bucks in deeper formats. Even in posting a 2.94 ERA last year and breaking camp as closer, Hoover's 2015 ratios (7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9) at least gave us an inkling that this sort of start was possible. It's more likely that Hoover closes for Triple-A Louisville this year than the Reds.