Regan's Rumblings: 10 Things I Wonder About

I am fortunate to be able to answer a lot of your questions through our Ask-the-Expert feature, and I thought I'd highlight a few common ones I've seen recently. We'll tackle those as well as some other random thoughts that have been on my mind this week.

What to do with Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber?

Like the Dodgers with Cody Bellinger, the Cubs face a bit of a dilemma with Ian Happ. After batting .298/.362/.615 in 26 Triple-A games, Happ was promoted to the Cubs and in eight games at the big league level is hitting .357/.455/.786 with 70% of his hits having gone for extra bases. He's started at all three outfield positions after primarily being a second baseman in the minors. At that position, we have Happ third on the depth chart behind Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez. In the outfield, it looks like Happ and Jon Jay are the top options in center between Schwarber and Jason Heyward. Jay is batting .321/.418/.410, but with no home runs, he's been on the bench more frequently lately. Baez looks to be a utility option at this point, so he doesn't look to be a threat to Happ's playing time.

So what about Schwarber in left field? He's a defensive liability who is batting .184/.307/.349 overall and .156/.325/.281 versus southpaws. He didn't start Sunday or Monday and has only started twice in the last five games. Against lefties, it appears we will be seeing Zobrist in left field and Baez at second base. Against RHP, Schwarber should continue to play left field with Zobrist at second, but at some point the Cubs could look to make a change with Schwarber, either via a trade or (less likely) a demotion to Triple-A. Schwarber has far more value in OBP leagues given his 14% BB%, but he's really contributing nothing right now. Bottom line here is that Happ is going to play while he's hitting, likely in center field at the expense of Jay. Would putting Jay's solid defense and .418 OBP in left field over Schwarber make the Cubs a better team? At some point, I can see it happening.

When will we see Yoan Moncada?

Moncada is close to returning from a bruised thumb, and that should happen this week. He'll return to a .331/.401/.504 slash that includes six homers and 10 steals. Strikeouts continue to be an issue given his 27.4% K%, but Moncada draws his share of walks (10.8% BB%), and the strikeouts are actually down from last year's 30.9% rate in Double-A. Who's holding down the fort at second for the White Sox right now? How about the dynamic pair of Yolmer Sanchez and Tyler Saladino? Sanchez is batting a surprising .314/.354/.438 after posting a sub-.600 OPS in parts of three big league seasons covering close to 700 plate appearances, so this looks to be flukish. Saladino is hitting .202/.308/.279, so he's a utility guy at best.

To make room for Moncada and to ride Sanchez's hot streak, perhaps they could use Moncada at second and Sanchez at third while pushing Todd Frazier to DH and Matt Davidson to a part-time role. Either way, this is a situation that should resolve itself. Moncada will return from injury this week and need at least a couple of weeks to settle back in with his swing. If he's continuing to carry a .900+ OPS on or around June 10, he should get the call, with whomever is slumping among the aforementioned players being pushed aside. The 20-23 White Sox are just four games out in the AL Central, so I have to think they bring Moncada up soon so they can be in position come the trade deadline to determine which way they will go (buyers or sellers).

Who are the top 10 setup men most likely to become closers in the near future?

As per usual, the slate of closers continues to be volatile. Who knew that Greg Holland would have seven more saves than anyone else by this point? Who knew that Bud Norris would have as many saves (nine) as David Robertson and AJ Ramos combined? We see this every year, and over the final four months of this season, we'll see plenty more. If you think you'll find yourself looking for saves now and over the next few months, here are 10 guys to keep an eye on (in no particular order):

Archie Bradley (ARI) – Fernando Rodney has turned things around, but he's still walking more than five per nine innings and seems like as good a bet as anyone to implode at some point. Bradley would seem to be the favorite over J.J. Hoover at this point, as the Diamondbacks don't appear to be interested in shifting Bradley to the rotation, at least this year.

Arodys Vizcaino (ATL) – Jim Johnson looks to a prime summer trade candidate and Vizcaino is the obvious next in line. His 10.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 97.7 mph average fastball are top closer type numbers.

Francisco Rodriguez (DET) – I wouldn't close the door on Francisco Rodriguez regaining his job, as K-Rod has tossed back-to-back scoreless outings and if he can show that he's "fixed" something, he could continue to get back in Brad Ausmus' circle of trust. Justin Wilson though has a 1.50 ERA and 15.0 K/9, so he's no risk to lose his job anytime soon.

Matt Strahm (KC) – The Royals seem likely to clean house in July, and guys like closer Kevin Herrera and setup man Joakim Soria would seem to be prime trade candidates. The 25-year-old Strahm has an ugly 8.4 BB/9 supporting his 6.43 ERA, but since April 9, Strahm's ERA is just 2.13 and his BB/9 is still high, but at 5.0, it's improving. He's likely the closer of the future, though a move to the rotation could also be on the table in 2018.

Jacob Barnes (MIL) – Corey Knebel has been lights out with a 0.82 ERA and 15.5 K/9, but Barnes could be a fallback should Knebel hit a rough patch.

Felipe Rivero (PIT) – Tony Watson is an impending free agent with Scott Boras as his manager, so there appears little chance Watson is a Pirate on August 1. That leaves fellow southpaw RIvero and his 0.78 as the closer-in-waiting, though Juan Nicasio is another option.

Brad Hand (SD) – The Padres would be wise to cash in on Hand at the trade deadline, but if he sticks around in San Diego, he's a threat to Brandon Maurer for saves. Hand has excelled as a reliever the past couple years and has a 1.88 ERA and 11.6 K/9 this season. Hello Mr. Hand indeed.

Matt Albers (WAS) – Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley are ahead of "Fat Albers" (awesome nickname) on the closer depth chart, but this has been a revolving door, so perhaps Albers gets the call. He's posted a 1.62 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 14:3 K:BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Madson (OAK) – Santiago Casilla has seen his ERA rise from 2.57 to 4.96 in his last three appearances, including one four-run implosion on May 12. He's a prime candidate to lose the closer job (again) at some point, and Madson is likely to take over given his 2.08 ERA. Frankie Montas is a deeper option should the A's trade off their veteran bullpen pieces.

Blake Parker (LAA) – Cam Bedrosian (groin) seems likely to take the job back from Bud Norris once he can prove he's healthy, but Parker is looking like a deep sleeper option. The 32-year-old with just 90.2 MLB innings to his credit prior to 2017 has a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 20.1 innings, but the real eye-opener is his 14.2 K/9. He's upped his velocity from last year's 92.2 mph to 94.0 mph this year and he's yet to allow a home run. Perhaps Parker works his way into the later innings at some point.

Beyond Yoan Moncada and Amed Rosario, what elite prospects are next man up?

That's about it really in terms of elite guys, as the next top prospects are mostly below Double-A, including Victor Robles, Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Kopech. Here are a few guys worth noting:

Brent Honeywell, SP, TB – Tampa Bay keeps it's pitching factory alive with the likes of Honeywell and the older and less talented Jose De Leon. Honeywell spent just two starts at Double-A this year before being promoted, and in his last four starts, Honeywell has a 2.28 ERA and 31:3 K:BB in 23.2 innings. At 22, he's basically ready.

Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS – Devers is just 20 and at Double-A, but in 35 games there, he's hitting .320/.389/.555 with seven homers in 128 at-bats. It seems unlikely he'd get more than a token cup of coffee in September, but the Red Sox are using non-quality options at third base (Josh Rutledge, Brock Holt, Pablo Sandoval, Deven Marrero), so who knows?

Josh Hader, SP, MIL – Hader's 5.2 BB/9 is keeping him down, but he has big league stuff, so when the walks start dropping, he could get a look. Brandon Woodruff is probably a better option right now, though his ceiling is lower.

Lewis Brinson, OF, MIL – Brinson is batting .313/.403/.496 with four homers and five steals in Triple-A, but with everyone now healthy at the big club, Brinson will have to bide his time for an injury or trade to get his first look at big league pitching. That may not happen until August.

Franklin Barreto, SS, OAK – Barreto is slashing .315/.364/.488 while current starter, Adam Rosales' .637 OPS isn't exactly invoking the days of Miguel Tejada for A's fans. Still, Barreto isn't expected to get the call until the A's fall out of contention. Apparently no one has told them they already are out of contention and that if the think they aren't, maybe promotion Barreto would help.

Who else could pull a Justin Smoak / Yonder Alonso?

What about Nick Markakis? It may not happen until the offseason in which he looks to Alonso and others and re-tools his swing, but Markakis is essentially a 10-12 home run guy now. He topped out at 23 long balls in 2007 and has just one in 2017, but his hard hit rate of 34.7% is the second highest of his career behind 2007's 34.8%, so maybe he starts working on elevating his swing path and getting his 25.8% fly ball rate more in the 40% range. It probably won't happen overnight, but if Alonso can hit 30+ this year, why can't Markakis do it in 2018?

Who are some sleeper options for stolen bases?

In deeper leagues there's not much out there other than the likes of Gregor Blanco, Jake Marisnick, and Eric Sogard. Of that trio, I guess I'd go with Blanco while A.J. Pollock (groin) is on the DL. In shallower leagues I'm in, I see guys like Jarrod Dyson (13 stolen bases), Kevin Pillar (7), Aaron Hicks (6), and Cameron Maybin (10) available. In OBP leagues, I'd go with Maybin who has some pop and a .370 OBP. His .244 significantly lessens his standard league value. Leury Garcia might be the best option as he's also shown some pop (5 HR) in addition to the six steals and he's surprisingly owned in just 6% of Yahoo leagues. He'd probably be more intriguing in the top third of the order rather than hitting sixth, but a 4.5% walk rate probably means he's hitting where he should be.

Is Jose Berrios overhyped?

We all saw how Ian Desmond compared Berrios to Jose Fernandez after Berrios fanned 11 Rockies over 7.2 two-hit shutout innings in his last start. That's a bit much, but owners who believed in the underlying talent and didn't overrate the importance of his 8.02 ERA in 58.1 big league innings last year are being paid handsomely. Berrios is the real deal, and while he's obviously not 0.59 ERA good, I don't see why he can't post an ERA in the low threes the rest of the way with a strikeout per inning. At 55.9% through two starts, his fly ball rate will need to come down or the damage will be there, but it's only two starts, so no cause for concern. I don't see him as a Syndergaard-level ace any time soon, but in fantasy leagues, you could have SP2 value here.

Can we trust Danny Duffy again?

Despite a 1.8 mph drop in velocity over last year's breakout season, Duffy has a 1.31 ERA in his last three starts after starting slow with a 3.89 ERA through six starts. His 7.0 K/9 is well off last year's 9.4 mark and his walk rate is up from 2.1 BB/9 to 3.0, so he's yet to exactly build off his breakout 2016. Duffy though fanned 10 Yankees on May 18, and though the Yankees do have some swing-and-miss types (Hello Mr. Judge), they also lead the AL in runs, so that's a solid outing given he didn't allow a run. Duffy then came back against these same Yankees on Tuesday and tossed seven innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts to lower his ERA to 2.92. I do wonder whether 2016 will be his peak year, but for now, he's back in our good graces and can be trusted again.

How do we project Alex Wood for the rest of 2017?

I get a lot of questions about Wood as a Dodgers fan, and as I guy who's seen him pitch plenty the last three years, I would characterize my perception of him as "bullish". He's always had good stuff, but the stuff this year has looked faster, crisper, and he's locating far better. Wood's hard hit rate sits at a very low 20.4% compared to a 27% career mark and he's gained 2.3 mph on his fastball and I see him pitching to the corners and to the bottom half of the zone more frequently. That's reflected in a whopping 67.6% groundball rate, resulting in just one home runs surrendered in 43 innings. I still worry about his maximum-effort delivery resulting in an arm injury, but pitchers with better mechanics get hurt all the time, so maybe Wood stays healthy and finishes with 165 innings of 2.80 ERA ball and 190 strikeouts. I could see that happening, as that would mean he's post something in the range of a 3.10 ERA the rest of the way.

Why are four of the five top velocity decliners Chicago Cubs pitchers?

In case you haven't heard, Statcast has replaced PITCHF/x as the official measurement of velocity this season. FanGraphs wrote a detailed piece on the topic, but essentially velocity is now being measured differently and the net result is that velocities are UP over last year, but not that pitchers are necessarily throwing as hard as the "new data" may indicate. The difference is estimated to be anywhere in the range of 0.5-1.0 mph, meaning that a guy who clocked in at 92 mph last year and 93 mph this year isn't necessarily throwing harder. So with that in mind, if pitchers are still seeing declines over 2016, that's troubling. In running the numbers, Danny Duffy checks in with a 1.8 mph decline, but after a pair of six-run outings, Duffy has seemingly righted the ship and has a 2.97 ERA. Oddly enough, the other four pitchers in the top-five of velocity stragglers are all Chicago Cubs starters. It makes you wonder whether the radar gun at Wrigley Field needs some fine tuning, but assuming the data is correct, it does explain why the Cubs have issues in their rotation, perhaps significant issues.

Not coincidentally, the Cubs rotation has a 4.45 ERA this year after posting a 2.96 mark in 2016. Hendricks seems to have righted ship somewhat, posting a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts, though he's still walking guys at a 3.6 BB/9 clip after a 2.1 mark last year. He has never been a hard thrower, but when you get into Jered Weaver territory, the tendency can be to try and avoid catching too much of the plate, hence more walks. Lackey isn't a guy I can figure out, as he has allowed a whopping 12 homers in 52.1 innings with a 4.82 ERA, but in a May 9th start IN Colorado, Lackey posted a 7-4-0-0-2-10 stat line. I'd still avoid him for me the most part. Lester is also walking more batters, but his 2017 FIP of 3.63 is right in line with last year's 3.45 (versus a 2.44 ERA), so he's pretty much pitching as expected sans the elevated walk rate.

Arrieta is a bit more troubling. His 4.80 ERA should trend down given his 4.09 FIP, but the velocity is way down on all four of his primary pitches, and his 41.3% GB% is well off the 56.2% and 52.6% marks he posted in the prior two years, leading to the 1.4 HR/9 that is reminiscent of his time in Baltimore. No one is expecting a repeat of his 2015 1.77 ERA season, but this has all the makings of a continuation of a massive drop-off that began last year. Arrieta is a free agent-to-be who is costing himself millions every time he takes the hill. That said, his 9.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are both batter marks than he put up last year, so we have to think he'll be somewhat okay, but the velocity and ground ball rates are enough to keep me away. I really don't have an explanation as to why so many Cubs are showing stark velocity drops other than perhaps they exerted so much energy in winning the World Series that they aren't running on full tanks this year.