Regan’s Rumblings: 10 Biggest First-Half Stories

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Updated on July 5, 2018 11:36PM EST

As I sit here on this 4th of July reflecting on how grateful I am for what I have and for my country, I'm also reflecting on some of the biggest baseball stories so far in 2018. Obviously, this is a year that has yet to have its final chapter written, but there have certainly been some eye-openers so far.

My top 10:

Max Muncy's rise from obscurity

The Dodgers have yet to win a World Series since Andrew Friedman took over prior to the 2015 season, but it only seems a matter of time. He traded failed prospect Zach Lee to the Mariners for Chris Taylor in 2016, and Taylor went on to completely change his swing prior to last year. A .288/.354/.496 season (21 HR, 17 SB) was the result. In April 2017, he signed Muncy to a minor league deal on (Dodgers fans weren't thrilled), and Muncy didn't even receive a September call-up despite hitting .309/.414/.491 for Triple-A Oklahoma City. This year, injuries to Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner provided an opening, and it's safe to say Muncy has taken advantage. In 231 plate appearances, he's hit .281/.420/.649 with 20 home runs and a 19 percent BB percentage. Here's where Muncy ranks in the NL among players with at least 200 PA:
WAR: 3rd ahead of Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt
SLG: 1st ahead of No. 2 ranked Jesus Aguilar
OBP: 2nd, 5 points behind leader Joey Votto and ahead of guys like Freeman and Nolan

My top 10:

Max Muncy's rise from obscurity

He also qualifies at 1B and 3B in all leagues, and soon 2B, considering that he's recently been named the starter at that position. Muncy may even qualify in the outfield given he played 21 games there in 2016. I have no idea whether this continues, but I'm certainly enjoying the ride.

Juan Soto's ascendance from Low-A to the big leagues in less than two months

Soto has slowed down somewhat, since his OPS has recently dipped below 1.000, but for a guy who started in Low-A this year to be hitting .308/.421/.556, that's a special talent. Soto was limited to 32 games last year due to injuries, and 51 in 2016 due to youth, so this is a guy with very little pro experience but a ton of talent. Soto has a Vlad Jr.-esque minor league slash of .362/.462/.757 this year, and though he wasn't expected to stick at the big-league level when he was promoted, he's not going anywhere now. This limits Michael Taylor to a backup role, but Soto appears here to stay. As part of his 2018 write up, here's what we had to say about Soto: "All the tools are here for Soto to finish the season as a top-five prospect." True words, but Soto has already lost prospect eligibility.

Eddie Rosario being by far the best Twins hitter

Nope, the team's best hitter isn't Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano. Rosario broke out last year with a .290/.328/.507 season that included 27 home runs. This year he's been even better, entering Wednesday's action with a .312/.354/.562 line that includes 18 home runs and six stolen bases. He's still walking at a low 6.1 percent clip, but it's worth noting that this is his career best should it hold up. So would be his 17.3 K percentage, so you can see the progress at the plate. Rosario is a late-bloomer, but the breakout is real.

Trevor Bauer becoming an ace

I tend to use the term "ace" sparingly, and if I look across the league right now, I see the following qualifying as aces, based on current and recent performance:

Sure, you could make cases for the likes of Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, James Paxton and others, but that's my list. Bauer, though, is right there as well. After never posting a sub-4.00 ERA, he sits with a 2.45 mark in 17 starts, including an 11.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, both career-best marks if they hold up. What has separated Bauer's 2018 from his prior season has been his consistency. In 17 starts, he's allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of them, and in the two in which he didn't, the total was four. Bauer is averaging a career-high 94.5 mph, and he's a well-documented student of the science of pitching. At 27, his best years appear ahead of him.

The potential Mets fire sale

Big markets aren't always sellers, but are the Mets really acting like a big market these days? They have a lower team payroll than Seattle and St. Louis, both, by far, smaller markets. The Mets though have an old and injury-prone team that includes free agents to be such as Devin Mesoraco, A.J. Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes. Jay Bruce and David Wright provide negative value relative to their salaries, and Todd Frazier isn't going to be a part of the next Mets playoff team. However, the Mets have some young talent, including the disappointing Amed Rosario, the breakout star in Brandon Nimmo, and the up-and-down but talented Michael Conforto. The Mets also have a pair of chips that would be very popular: Jacob DeGrom (controllable through 2020) and Noah Syndergaard (controllable through 2021). Guys like Bruce, Wright and Yoenis Cespedes have contracts that make them tough to deal, but I can see the following guys being dealt (with the playing time impact):

Jay Bruce – End result would be a Cespedes/Nimmo/Conforto outfield, with Jose Bautista slotting in against lefties and the occasional RHP.
Jacob DeGrom – Dealing a pitcher would open things up for Corey Oswalt and perhaps, Seth Lugo.
Noah Syndergaard – See comment above.
Jeurys Familia – A Familia trade would open up the closer position, likely for Robert Gsellman.
Asdrubal Cabrera – Maybe this opens up 2B for Wilmer Flores.
Todd Frazier – A Frazier deal could result in Wilmer Flores at third and top prospect Peter Alonso getting a shot at first base.

Miles Mikolas' successful return stateside

Not every failed U.S. player goes overseas, has success and becomes Mikolas or Eric Thames, but you can bet that the success of those guys has resulted in increased international scouting budgets across the league. Mikolas last saw MLB action in 2014 when he put up a 6.44 ERA in 10 starts with the Rangers. Mikolas then revived his career with three strong seasons in Japan, finishing last year with a 2.25 ERA and 187:23 K:BB in 188 innings before signing a two-year deal with the forward-thinking Cardinals this offseason. Mikolas is also averaging 94.1 mph with his fastball after clocking in at a 92.7 mph average back in 2014. His 6.3 K/9 limits his fantasy upside somewhat, but the Cardinals staff seems to have him in a good place.

Blake Treinen becoming arguably baseball's most dominant closer

I'm not sure WAR is a great measurement for relievers, but I'll just highlight that the top three relievers in terms of 2018 WAR are Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz and Treinen. Here are how the three stack up in a few categories:

PITCHER	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	GB%
Hader	16.7	3.6	0.40	1.21	1.18	26.2
Diaz	14.4	2.6	0.40	2.40	1.62	45.8
Treinen	10.8	2.6	0.22	0.86	1.89	46.0

It's an easy argument to say that Hader is baseball's most dominant relief pitcher, but Corey Knebel is the Brewers' closer. Diaz leads the league in saves with 33, but the Mariners also easily lead MLB in one-run games (they are 26-11), giving Diaz far more opportunities for saves than Treinen. Treinen's ERA stands out, but stacked up against guys like Hader, Diaz, Aroldis Chapman, etc., a 10.8 K/9 looks rather pedestrian. Regardless, Treinen should represent the A's in the All-Star game due to his first-half performance, and his 97-plus mph sinking fastball may be the best single pitch of anyone I've seen this year. Considering how he flamed out in Washington last year before being included in the deal involving Sean Doolittle. A side note to that deal, the Nationals aren't complaining about getting Doolittle in that deal, but Ryan Madson has been a bust (4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP this year), and the A's also received a 19-year-old left-handed pitching prospect coming off Tommy John surgery in that deal. He was MLB.com's 10th ranked Nationals prospect at the time. Jesus Luzardo is now RotoWire's No. 2 ranked pitching prospect and 19th overall prospect. Win: A's.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. watch 2018

After hitting .380/.442/.582 in April, Guerrero followed that up with a .438/.480/.768 effort in May, and by the time that month was halfway through, the calls to bring him to the big leagues began. By the end of May, they were deafening, but the Jays resisted. Speculation centered around the Jays wanting to limit his service time in a year in which they have little shot at a playoff spot. Vlad is just 19, and the Blue Jays have a pretty good third baseman already in Josh Donaldson, so bringing up Guerrero would mean either trading Donaldson (still a strong possibility later this month) or putting him at DH and limiting his growth as a defender. I can see the reasons for keeping him down, but the "fan" part of me just wants to see him go up against guys like Chris Sale and Luis Severino in the East. Of course, Guerrero injured his knee a month ago and has been out, but he's looking like he'll return in the next week or so, making an August debut very possible depending on what the Jays do at the trade deadline. We've already seen Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto graduate as prospects, and I for one can't recall a trio of 19/20-year-olds who debuted in the same year who have this sort of upside. I've been asked how I'd rank the three, and it's tough. I wouldn't argue with any order really, but from what I've seen (and yes, I've tuned into some Double-A New Hampshire games to watch Vlad Jr.), I would likely go: Guerrero, Soto, Acuna. Though, if you want to go with Acuna, Guerrero, Soto, I can't fault you.

Brandon Nimmo gives the Mets a building block

We talked a bit about the Mets trading off veterans, but let's look at one thing that is going right. As disappointing as their former No. 1 prospect Amed Rosario has been in his first full season (.241/.285/.356), Nimmo has been a source of hope. The Mets outfield is full when healthy, but seeing as how that is a rare occurrence, Nimmo was given an opportunity and has taken advantage of it, hitting .284/.382/.527 despite being in a two-for-22 slump. He's hit 12 homers in 220 at-bats while swiping seven bases and striking out in 28.6 percent of his plate appearances. Nimmo hit .260/.279/.518 in 177 at-bats last season, so the high OBP is no fluke, but the spike in his ISO from .158 to .263 has been the biggest surprise. He may never hit much more than .270, but that could come with a .370+ OBP, 20 to 25 home runs (more?), and 15 stolen bases. Considering most fantasy owners grabbed him off the waiver wire, Nimmo has been providing huge returns on very little investment. Nimmo's minor league HR high is 12 in a season, but we do see guys developing the power part of their game later in their career

The Mariners making a run at the AL West title

This probably won't last, but it's been a strong first half for the underdog Mariners. The Astros were expected to blow through the regular season with 100-plus wins, and that total will still happen, but as of July 4, the Mariners are a mere half-game back. Run differential, however, suggests this is temporary, as the Mariners sit at +25 and the Astros at a league-best +172. Their success is due in no small part to Edwin Diaz and his league-leading (by eight!) 33 saves, 2.40 ERA, and 14.4 K/9. He's easily been fantasy's most valuable closer. The Mariners have also managed to keep James Paxton (3.39 ERA, 11.7 K/9) healthy for 18 starts. Wade LeBlanc has been a pleasant surprise with a 3.19 ERA and 60:16 K:BB in 79 innings. On the hitting side, Jean Segura is an All-Star, Mitch Haniger (17 home runs) might be, and Nelson Cruz (22 home runs, .958 OPS) probably should be but may fall short. Ben Gamel (.371) has provided value and even amid the 80-game suspension to Robinson Cano, whom they get back in August, the team has hardly missed a beat. Unfortunately, potential minor league reinforcements are unlikely considering the poor state of the Seattle farm system, but it's been a nice run.