Ranking the Rookies: 2018 Tiers

This article originally appeared in the Fantasy Baseball magazine, but the order and makeup of the list has been altered and expanded to reflect the most recent news and list some extra prospects who missed the magazine cut.

The top 400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. The following tiers serve as a way to rank 100 prospects based strictly on their fantasy potential for the 2018 season. The rankings are not perfect, as there are certain players who I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them, but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect you are investing in.

GENERATIONAL TALENTS

1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels
2. Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves

Yeah, you've heard of these guys. Ohtani could be an SP1 on a per-start basis right away. Depending on your league rules, you may be able to extract five-category offensive value from him when he's not pitching. Acuna is the best fantasy prospect to come along in five years and likely will debut in mid-to-late April when the Braves have secured a seventh year of control. His plus speed and aggression on the bases gives him a high floor, and his power potential gives him a ridiculously high ceiling in year one. A 20-homer, 30-steal season isn't out of the question.

HITTERS FOR STANDARD LEAGUES

3. Scott Kingery, 2B, Phillies
4. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals
5. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS/3B, Yankees
6. Ryan McMahon, 1B/3B, Rockies
7. Jesse Winker, OF, Reds
8. Willie Calhoun, OF/DH, Rangers
9. Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins
10. Nick Senzel, 3B/SS, Reds
11. Dustin Fowler, OF, A's
12. Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees
13. J.P. Crawford, SS, Phillies
14. Colin Moran, 3B, Pirates

Most of these guys have a good shot at opening the season in the majors, though the best of the bunch (Kingery, Robles, Torres, Senzel) figure to open the year at Triple-A. Kingery and Robles have easy 20-plus steal potential if they get the call in the first half, while Brinson, Senzel and Fowler should each steal double-digit bases with good health. Brinson probably has the lowest batting average floor, but most of these guys have a good enough hit tool to flirt with .270 averages as rookies if they catch some breaks. McMahon, Winker, Calhoun and Moran could all theoretically be platooned, for various reasons. While I think it's unlikely that anyone from this tier tops 25 homers as a rookie, McMahon, Calhoun and Brinson are the most realistic candidates, as each has at least 60-grade raw power.

PITCHERS FOR STANDARD LEAGUES

15. Luiz Gohara, LHP, Braves
16. Michael Kopech, RHP, White Sox
17. A.J. Minter, LHP, Braves
18. Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers
19. Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals

There are four starters in this tier who will either break camp in the big-league rotation (Gohara has the best chance) or get a callup in April or May. Kopech will probably be the last pitcher from this tier to reach the majors, but he will strike out over a batter per inning when he does arrive. Minter is the lone reliever on this entire list. He could be useful in 15-team mixed leagues for his ratios and strikeouts, even if he's not getting saves, and I'm betting he takes over the closing duties in Atlanta in the first half. Buehler has a ton of upside, but will also likely have his innings monitored most closely among pitchers in this tier.

HITTERS FOR DEEP LEAGUES

20. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles
21. Willy Adames, SS, Rays
22. Franklin Barreto, 2B/SS, A's
23. Alex Verdugo, OF, Dodgers
24. Franchy Cordero, OF, Padres
25. Charlie Tilson, OF, White Sox
26. Jake Bauers, 1B, Rays
27. Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates

Hays appears to be ticketed for his first action at Triple-A, but should take over an everyday role in the majors in May or June. Adames, Bauers and Meadows are the only three hitters in this tier who have not made their big-league debuts. However, the Rays have cleared the way for Adames and Bauers to take over as their everyday shortstop and first baseman, respectively, though they likely will be held down until at least late April so the Rays gain an extra year of control. Meanwhile, Corey Dickerson is in Meadows' way for now, but if he proves himself ready in May or June, he could get his shot. For owners chasing steals, Barreto, Cordero and Tilson are the three best bets. Those looking for power upside should consider Hays and Cordero. Batting average is obviously tough to predict with prospects, but each player in this tier has significant upside in that department, with the exception of Barreto and Cordero, who likely will struggle for another year to make contact at a solid clip. Tilson has the easiest avenue to playing time – he could be the White Sox's leadoff hitter on Opening Day – but has easily the least long-term appeal.

FRONTLINE STARTERS TO STASH

28. Alex Reyes, RHP, Cardinals
29. A.J. Puk, LHP, A's
30. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

Each pitcher in this tier has No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside and will miss a ton of bats right away in the majors. There is significant risk in stashing these guys to start the year, as their timetables are fuzzy, but the payoff could be huge. Reyes probably won't be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery until May or June, and while he could be a dominant starter this season, the Cardinals could opt to ease him in out of the bullpen. Puk's command and control may never be better than fringe average, but he should debut sometime this summer and will be a strikeout machine. Whitley has only logged 14.2 innings at Double-A and is suspended for 50 games to start the season, but he is a special pitching prospect, so a normal timeline for a promotion to the majors will not apply (he almost made his big-league debut last year).

PITCHERS FOR DEEP LEAGUES

31. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers
32. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds
33. Chance Adams, RHP, Yankees
34. Anthony Banda, LHP, Rays
35. Max Fried, LHP, Braves
36. Domingo German, RHP, Yankees
37. Wilmer Font, RHP, Dodgers
38. Erick Fedde, RHP, Nationals

These guys are all essentially big-league ready. Adams is the best of the bunch and the only top-150 prospect in this tier. All eight have at least No. 4 starter upside, but realistically most will end up only being No. 5 starters or relievers due to various flaws. Woodruff, Mahle and Banda are the only ones I can't envision pitching out of the bullpen this year.

THE CATCHERS

39. Jorge Alfaro, C, Phillies
40. Chance Sisco, C, Orioles
41. Victor Caratini, C, Cubs
42. Carson Kelly, C, Cardinals
43. Mitch Garver, C, Twins
44. Francisco Mejia, C/3B, Indians
45. Tom Murphy, C, Rockies
46. Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays

While these guys are far from a lock to be net positives in fantasy, they at least have the potential to be useful, especially in two-catcher leagues. Alfaro likely will hang slightly above the Mendoza Line this year, but there is significant power upside and we know he'll be up all year as he's out of options. Sisco, Caratini and Kelly will struggle to get the bulk of the work behind the dish, but each has the potential to hit for a fairly high average. Garver has 15-homer potential, even in a backup role. Murphy's plus raw power and home ballpark make him intriguing, even entering his age-27 season, but the Rockies clearly don't trust him defensively. Jansen's offensive profile is exciting, but he may spend the majority of the year at Triple-A working on his defense. Mejia's inadequate receiving skills may prevent him from catching in the majors this year, and if he's not catching, it's hard to envision how he will carve out a big-league role on this roster.

HITTERS FOR WATCH LISTS IN STANDARD LEAGUES

47. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox
48. Jorge Mateo, SS, A's
49. Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros
50. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres
51. Brendan Rodgers, SS/2B, Rockies
52. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Blue Jays
53. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays

This category used to be called "THE LONG SHOTS" but it seemed like every year at least one guy would get the call in the second half with enough time to make an impact. Jimenez will be big-league ready in June, but the White Sox should be tempted to hold him down until 2019 to gain an extra year of control. He is talented enough to really force the issue, however. Mateo is faster than any player on this list, with the possible exception of Victor Robles. He would likely be a one-category guy if gets the call this summer. Tucker could be ready in July or August, but may not have anywhere to play. Tatis has already received a lot of attention in big-league camp, and while I don't see him making it up this year, he's special enough to debut as a 19-year-old, and general manager A.J. Preller is well-known for pushing his top young players. Rodgers seems destined to debut in 2019, but it wouldn't be the strangest thing if the stars aligned this year. Conventional wisdom suggests Guerrero and Bichette won't debut until 2019, but they are such advanced hitters that it would be foolish to rule anything out. Both Blue Jays prospects should start the year at Double-A, but that is not a front office with a reputation for sacrificing team control in order to push prospects to the big leagues, so they are true long shots in this tier.

HITTERS FOR WATCH LISTS IN DEEPER LEAGUES

54. Anthony Alford, OF, Blue Jays
55. Steven Duggar, OF, Giants
56. Greg Allen, OF, Indians
57. Magneuris Sierra, OF, Marlins
58. Roman Quinn, OF, Phillies
59. Brian Anderson, 3B, Marlins
60. Chris Shaw, OF/1B, Giants
61. Christian Arroyo, 2B/3B/SS, Rays
62. Luis Urias, 2B/SS, Padres
63. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
64. Christin Stewart, OF, Tigers
65. Michael Chavis, 3B/1B, Red Sox
66. Bobby Bradley, 1B, Indians
67. Sheldon Neuse, 3B/DH, A's
68. Ryan Mountcastle, SS/3B/OF, Orioles
69. Nick Gordon, SS, Twins

This tier includes some high-quality prospects who probably won't be ready to debut until around the All-Star break (Alford, Urias, Riley, Chavis, Bradley, Neuse, Mountcastle, Gordon), and might not come up at all this year. There are also some lesser prospects who are either close to big-league ready (Duggar, Anderson, Arroyo) or have one carrying tool that makes them relevant (Sierra, Quinn, Allen, Shaw, Stewart) despite a foggy ETA.

HITTERS FOR EMERGENCIES

70. Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers
71. Mike Ford, 1B, Mariners
72. Ryan Cordell, OF, White Sox
73. Brett Phillips, OF, Brewers
74. Harrison Bader, OF, Cardinals
75. Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles
76. Yairo Munoz, SS, Cardinals
77. Ronald Guzman, 1B, Rangers
78. Mauricio Dubon, 2B/SS, Brewers
79. Michael Hermosillo, OF, Angels
80. Edwin Rios, 1B, Dodgers
81. Zack Granite, OF, Twins
82. Billy McKinney, OF/1B, Yankees
83. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Cardinals
84. J.D. Davis, 3B, Astros
85. Dawel Lugo, 2B/3B, Tigers
86. Max Schrock, 2B, Cardinals
87. Alex Blandino, 2B, Reds
88. Jake Peter, 2B, Dodgers
89. Austin Slater, OF, Giants
90. Jordan Luplow, OF, Pirates
91. Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Blue Jays
92. Dan Vogelbach, 1B/DH, Mariners
93. Sam Travis, 1B, Red Sox
94. Phillip Ervin, OF, Reds
95. Tyler Austin, 1B/DH, Yankees
96. Renato Nunez, 3B/OF/DH, A's
97. Jose Adolis Garcia, OF, Cardinals

Not only should fantasy owners look to do better than this cast of characters, but even their own teams are likely hoping they don't have to lean too heavily on anyone in this tier. The majority of these hitters have either already played in the big leagues or are big-league ready. Reyes and Ford lead the tier as they will need to stick on the big-league roster out of spring training or be cut loose after being selected in the Rule 5 draft. A handful of these hitters have a notable offensive tool or two, but in most cases they project as fourth outfielders or bat-first bench infielders. This is where you will find low-average hitters with power potential, right-handed hitters who mash lefties and can't hit righties, and tweener infielders who can hit a little but not enough to play every day. A few of these hitters will undoubtedly become viable in mixed leagues this year, but in most cases you won't have to roster them until a significant role opens in the majors.

PITCHERS FOR WATCH LISTS

98. Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves
99. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers
100. Mitchell White, RHP, Dodgers
101. Kolby Allard, LHP, Braves
102. Joey Lucchesi, LHP, Padres
103. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Twins
104. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Phillies
105. Julian Merryweather, RHP, Indians
106. Cal Quantrill, RHP, Padres
107. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates
108. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Yankees
109. Franklin Perez , RHP, Tigers
110. Ryan Borucki, LHP, Blue Jays
111. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins
112. Fernando Romero, RHP, Twins
113. Tanner Scott, LHP, Orioles
114. Beau Burrows, RHP, Tigers
115. Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Cubs
116. Grant Holmes, RHP, A's
117. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals

A lot of these pitchers are better prospects than the hitters in the penultimate tier, but none is big-league ready yet, so in addition to the inherent risk associated with any pitching prospect, we have no idea if or when these guys will be up in 2018. Additionally, many have limited upside. The top four guys plus Quantrill, Keller, Sheffield, Perez and Alcantara could potentially be No. 2 starters, but those odds are long, and they almost certainly wouldn't pitch that well in their first pro season. Some have significant bullpen risk (De Los Santos, Sheffield, Alcantara, Romero, Scott, Burrows, Alzolay, Holmes, Helsley), and others could wind up only being No. 5 starters or swing men (Lucchesi, Gonsalves, Merryweather, Borucki).