The Arizona Fall League came to a close Saturday, Nov. 18. The last baseball game of 2017 being played in the United States was the AFL Championship game -- something I heard echoed inside Scottsdale Stadium numerous times. The stadium was packed with over 3,000 people for the championship, and easily the two best teams were going head to head. Not shockingly, the Peoria team took home the championship over Mesa in an 8-2 final.
Champs pic.twitter.com/CarvHioyT4
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Peoria's roster was filled from top to bottom with prospects that we all will care about very soon; from AFL MVP Ronald Acuna to the AFL batting champion Eric Filia. It wasn't just Peoria, though. Mesa's roster of Victor Robles, Kyle Tucker and company came in a close second. The other four AFL teams rostered many gems as well. A lot of players helped their cause, so let's take a look at who helped their stock the most, so we can be properly prepared for our dynasty leagues.
The Arrow is Pointing Up!
Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
I know, how can the number one prospect in the game raise his stock? Come in second in OPS and SLG and lead the league in runs, total bases and home runs. That's a good start. He also hit .325 in Arizona, which matched his 2017 season total across three levels. Acuna was the youngest MVP in the history of the AFL and
The Arizona Fall League came to a close Saturday, Nov. 18. The last baseball game of 2017 being played in the United States was the AFL Championship game -- something I heard echoed inside Scottsdale Stadium numerous times. The stadium was packed with over 3,000 people for the championship, and easily the two best teams were going head to head. Not shockingly, the Peoria team took home the championship over Mesa in an 8-2 final.
Champs pic.twitter.com/CarvHioyT4
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Peoria's roster was filled from top to bottom with prospects that we all will care about very soon; from AFL MVP Ronald Acuna to the AFL batting champion Eric Filia. It wasn't just Peoria, though. Mesa's roster of Victor Robles, Kyle Tucker and company came in a close second. The other four AFL teams rostered many gems as well. A lot of players helped their cause, so let's take a look at who helped their stock the most, so we can be properly prepared for our dynasty leagues.
The Arrow is Pointing Up!
Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
I know, how can the number one prospect in the game raise his stock? Come in second in OPS and SLG and lead the league in runs, total bases and home runs. That's a good start. He also hit .325 in Arizona, which matched his 2017 season total across three levels. Acuna was the youngest MVP in the history of the AFL and led his team to the title with a 2-for-4, four-RBI day. He is the real deal, plain and simple. There are plenty of high-caliber prospects at the top of rankings lists. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is obviously no slouch, and Robles and Eloy Jimenez are elite talents. But Acuna set himself apart from the rest. This would have been a natural place to see Acuna slow down. Before 2017 he had a career 355 at-bats. He logged 557 in 2017 before reaching the AFL. He should struggle or fade a little, right? Not Acuna. He proved to the Braves he's ready to take Major League Baseball by storm. This leads to the biggest point -- it's no longer about Acuna's prospect value, but where he stacks up in single-season leagues. He hasn't played a game in the majors, but should already be valued as a top 100 player overall.
#ProspectOne going to miss this swing. Acuna during BP pic.twitter.com/G5DVkBMpas
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
2 more RBI for @Braves Acuna. Bases loaded. Almost hit, then hits a 2 rbi single. #ProspectOne@MLBazFallLeaguepic.twitter.com/PDODglSmPy
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Monte Harrison, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
One thing I look for when breaking down prospects is: when faced with adversity, how do they come out of it? Rafael Devers was a prime example of someone passing this test in early 2016, and Harrison showed some of this during the AFL. When you get stuck in a rut this late in the season, it can be difficult for some of these guys to pull themselves out of it during the AFL, but Harrison did just that. It started with a two-home run, seven-RBI game, which included a grand slam. Coming into that game, he was hitting .091, but he was able to finish out the AFL with a .283 average. He ranked third in home runs, but in only 53 at-bats. For perspective, the other two players with five homers had 80 or more at-bats. He finished top 10 in stolen bases, and only Victor Robles had more stolen bases in fewer at-bats. He continued to shine during the AFL after his breakout campaign, and his ability to be a 20/20 guy in the majors has him in the mix as a potential top 50 prospect for dynasty leagues. I would be aggressive in trying to acquire him in most leagues.
#ProspectOne grand slam for @BrewersMonte Harrison. Out here looking like Stanton. @InThisLeaguePodpic.twitter.com/3grtFUjity
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 20, 2017
Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves
A common theme I heard from my colleagues around the industry during the Fall Stars game was how impressive Riley looked. He seemed to get better each game I saw him. He looks to be major-league ready at third base right now. His swing can get long, which is going to lead to strikeouts, but he generates a lot of power. It's not a fair comp, but sometimes I get a Paul Goldschmidt vibe when watching Riley. He finished third in OPS, second in home runs and first in SLG. The Braves love to move their prospects aggressively through the system, and Riley looks to be the next riser. He's now pretty easily the second best hitting prospect in the Braves' system, with Kevin Maitan getting declared a free agent. He sits in a company of Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel and Michael Chavis as one of the top third baseman in the minors.
Digging in some AFL videos of mine and shared very little Austin Riley, and I have no idea why. Here's some BP #ProspectOnepic.twitter.com/ESGGvVnnP2
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 22, 2017
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Usually, missing the first two weeks of the AFL is a bad sign. Ask Kyle Lewis, who missed the first two, then got a handful of games under his belt only to get hurt and leave. That wasn't Robles' story. He was held back because the Nationals wanted him for their pennant run. Robles flashed all the tools during his debut. He's one of the fastest players (if not the fastest) on the field and on the base paths. Robles also allows himself to have a lot of fun, dancing and singing during BP, hat tipping opponents on great plays and much more. He finished off tied for fifth in stolen bases in only 41 at-bats. Robles has great vision and bat speed, which allowed him to send out three home runs. His patience shone as well, and he walked more than he struck out. Robles' stock didn't rocket as much as Acuna, but he has the chance to be a very special player. He should be viewed as a top four prospect, and should battle Acuna for the biggest 2018 prospect impact in the majors.
#ProspectOne@NationalsVictor Robles BP 💪🔥💪🔥💪 pic.twitter.com/6fN5EqZivZ
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Eric Filia, OF, Seattle Mariners
Say hello to your AFL batting title champion, as Filia came through with a monster .408 average. That was 25 points higher than the next closest guy. He also led the league in OBP at .483 and SLG at 1.088, and was tied for first in hits at 31. Filia is very likeable. He does a booty shake when stepping to the plate, and has a huge open legged stance, bringing his bat above his head. It is reminiscent of Craig Counsell or Xavier Nady. Filia is 25 years old, though. He's one of the older guys in the AFL, although he was just drafted in 2016. Filia doesn't show much in the power department, but can get you a handful of steals. He may never be more than a utility player, but his bat and defense give him a shot to be a later bloomer. It's not that he is now a prized asset, but rather that he is now relevant. He wasn't really on any radars due to his age and success at lower levels. His versatility, knack for getting on base and defensive flexibility may give him a major-league spot, and makes him worth speculating on in deeper leagues.
Victor Robles lines on to right and Eric Filia with the diving save for 2 runs. Hat tip at the end by Robles pic.twitter.com/vb45hgIAHE
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals
This is one of the few guys that actually changed my mind on his prospect status. Initially, I wasn't the biggest fan due to size issues and a lack of future power. He has shown a knack for running, though, stealing 21 bases in the minors in 2017. At the final AFL regular season game, I stopped him and asked how the whole experience went for him. He gave me a big smile, and said it was an amazing experience. I got the impression that he might have gotten more out of this stint in the AFL than possibly anyone. He ranked second in AVG (.383), fourth in OBP (.433), fifth in SLG (.568) and tied Filia for the lead in hits (31). He's a plus defender and has a knack for putting the bat on the ball. How it truly translates to the majors and the juiced ball era, we have to wait and see, but his control of the strike zone and bat speed give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop. He hasn't broken my top 150 yet, but he might be a good buy-low option coming into 2018.
#ProspectOne a couple of hits off TJ Zeuch 2B from @CardinalsAndrew Knizner and single @RoyalsNicky Lopez@MLBazFallLeaguepic.twitter.com/xt9fsY85Lf
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 11, 2017
Albert Abreu, RHP, New York Yankees
For fantasy purposes, scouting the AFL can be really tough. Starters dominate as relievers, older relievers can outclass young hitters, and established prospects typically do what they should. From Mitch Keller to J.D. Hammer, stocks for fantasy pitchers didn't change much. The one that made the biggest jump, though, was Abreu. Flashing a plus fastball and curve and better than normal command, he carved his way through the league. He had the highest single-game strikeout total in the AFL with eight. He tied for sixth in strikeouts overall, and although he gave up three home runs in a league-leading 27.2 innings, he kept his ERA lower than the likes of Justus Sheffield and Sandy Alcantara. If his command comes along like his stuff has, you've got another Yankees mid-rotation arm. If his command falters, he could be an eighth or ninth-inning reliever. Like many I've mentioned, this would be a guy I'd try to acquire on the cheap, and hope it pans out. Don't be surprised when he jumps into the top 100 in 2018.
#ProspectOne scouting @Yankees and @Indians square off again and history repeats as Albert Abreu strikes out Bobby Bradleypic.twitter.com/1fR6Oky9tQ
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) October 17, 2017
Who Was Left With More Questions Than Answers?
Francisco Mejia, 3B/C, Cleveland Indians
I just never could get a great feel for how I view Mejia moving forward. He doesn't hit for a lot of power, although his uppercut swing and overall hit tool should bring him double-digit homers every year. He doesn't steal much. He also doesn't seem to have a defensive home at this point. I don't believe his numbers play as an everyday third baseman, which is where he was stationed in the AFL. Catching is something they are moving him away from, but a move to second base would get me a bit more excited. He has the potential to return high production in two categories, mid to below-average production in two others, and little to no speed. Name value drives the cost. He's still a borderline top 50 prospect right now, and I'd be listening to offers that value his name over realistic big-league production.
More BP. @IndiansFrancisco Mejia looking good #ProspectOne@InThisLeaguePodpic.twitter.com/kVj8WpfAn9
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 3, 2017
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates
Statistically, Keller had a great AFL. He had the lowest ERA (1.52) of any pitcher that had 20 or more innings, and went 4-0 in six starts. He relied on his fastball -- his best pitch, which he can use to get strikes in and out of the zone. Keller tried to use his curve as his punchout pitch, and although he induced a lot of weak contact, players were able to keep it in play. Command is Keller's bread and butter. I question how big of a strikeout guy he will be, and view him in the SP3 range, with the upside of a SP2. I believe many would say SP2 to SP1. I'm not out on him, but as with Mejia, name value might net you a nice return while his stock might be at its highest point.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Tucker's results were not great in the AFL. He ranked in the bottom 10 in the league with a .212 AVG. He also finished with no homers and near the top in strikeouts. When you ask him, though, he just doesn't care. Eno Sarris and I were with him when he stated that results were not something he was concerned with. He wanted to compete and learn. The phrases 'spin rate' and 'launch angle' did not come out of his mouth (until Eno probed him on it, of course). This was a guy just looking to get reps in. This is a classic example of why reading too much into the numbers can hurt you. Though he sometimes looks too relaxed at the plate, I still have confidence in him. It's just never great to see a top 10 prospect perform poorly compared to his peers. Just might get you thinking!
#ProspectOne@MLBazFallLeague championship game @astrosKyle Tucker BP pic.twitter.com/0WOOVlVxPF
— The Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) November 18, 2017
Follow me on Twitter to find all my videos from the AFL. You can also listen to my prospect podcast, Prospect One, on iTunes or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
