Pitching 3D: Dynasty Pitchers of 2016 Draft

The 2016 first-year player draft is now in the books, and though it will be years before these players enter the picture for single-year leagues, managers in keeper dynasty formats are salivating at the prospect of new names entering the minor-league draft of 2017.

The dynasty outlook is not as simple as cruising down the list in order that their names were called on day one of the first-year player draft. The different needs of major league organizations and fantasy rosters (aka "Ks Rule") is really just the tip of the iceberg, as team context plays a major role from track record in developing pitchers to home environment. College players will have a quicker impact than their high school counterparts, though such picks are often trading ceiling for floor, the risk inherent in the pitcher population and the confusing reality of projecting their performance years in advance knocks the youngsters down the totem pole (in general). Some players have stuff, mechanics or size that profiles better in the bullpen, and though that might accelerate a pitcher's timetable to reach the major leagues, the limited innings will throw a dent into his relative value.

In reality, these pitchers aren't going to have any impact in Year 1 of service time. There isn't a Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Tim Lincecum or Mark Prior type of talent in this draft, as the most prepared players likely hail from high school and will be brought up softly as teams try to avoid the scalpel. The amateur stats mean little to nothing, so we will look at a player's stuff, mechanics and context when deciding how to judge his value on dynasty draft day. Things will obviously change between now and the next March, but in general I'm looking at a window of 2018-2020 given that these players are unlikely to reach the majors before that time yet fall prey to the complete unpredictability of pitchers as one looks further into the future. Each case is unique, but in general I use a system of 5-25-35-25-10 (numbers represent percentages) when weighting the next five years of potential value for drafted pitchers, beginning with the 2017 season.

Selections reflect where the player was picked overall, with order among pitchers in parentheses.

Jason Groome, LHP, BOS
Selected: 12 (7), High School
DOB: 8/23/98

Groome is the youngest of the high school pitchers drafted in the first round, yet he possesses the advanced delivery and repertoire to ascend more quickly than any other pitcher in this draft. He checks in at the mid-90s on the radar gun right now, doesn't turn 18 until late August and has the secondaries to advance quickly through the system. He has excellent stability for any pitcher, let alone a young southpaw whose size adds another hurdle in his development that has already been cleared. There is no better combination of power and stability in the draft, and that's before considering that he likely has room to add more given his tall-yet-slight frame. Groome earns number one on my board no matter how we're dicing up the class, that is unless the radar gun is the only criterion, because Groome takes back the lead as soon as future command enters the equation. Frankly, I'm shocked to see him slip this far the pitcher totem pole, as Groome tops every list for me – best player in the draft, highest floor, highest ceiling, most likely to get there, most likely to move quickly, top fantasy asset, the list goes on – how the league let Boston have the tall lefty is beyond me.

Justin Dunn, RHP, NYM
Selected: 19 (9), Boston College
DOB: 9/22/95

Wait, so the top two dynasty assets were taken outside the top half-dosen of the pitcher class to be drafted? Yup. Dunn is only listed at 6-foot-2, 170, the smallest pitcher so far and from now until a pick from the 30s, and he was a reliever until April. Then, BC made him a starter based on his four-pitch mix and his ability to hit high numbers on the radar gun ; his draft stock soared accordingly. There is still questions as to whether can sustain that velo over the course of a game or long season, but the team won't have any answers until it lets him loose. Dunn was hitting 98-99 mph on the gun in early starts, sitting 92-95 mph, and he has the mechanical stability to promise solid command in the future with excellent balance and great posture. He does have a bit of a cross-fire that makes one wonder if he needs to alter his angle on the rubber a bit in order to more consistently line up the gears, but he that is something that could be easily addressed. I could see him moving quickly, and though he needs to build stamina, Dunn has the stuff for big upside and the stability to handle his high-voltage power.

A.J. Puk, LHP, OAK
Selected: 6 (3), Florida
DOB: 4/25/95

His high-octane stuff and duration on prospect lists have combined with his college pedigree to put Puk among the top of pitcher prospect lists, and his excellent height (6-7) adds to the intrigue, but Puk has been hounded by inconsistency throughout his college career and his delivery foretells more struggles in the future. His ability to find command and stamina will likely determine his role at the big-league level, but as of now he has a long ways to go in his development before those elements become assets. One could see him moving quickly through the Oalkand system if fast-tracked to the bullpen, but his need to refine secondaries, pitch command and his delivery will take longer for him to fit in a rotation; his future role and how quickly its identified will likely determine his fantasy value.

Dane Dunning, RHP, WAS
Selected: 29 (14), Florida
DOB: 12/20/94

Dunning was the second of two consecutive picks by the Nats, and though he might seem like a fairly nondescript back-end first rounder with good-not-great stuff, relying on solid arm-side movement on a mid-90s fastball to generate weak contact, and he might just move more quickly than any other pitcher in the draft. Groome might be more ready, but the four extra candles that Dunning has on his birthday cake this year will give him an earlier crack at the show. Dunning has great stability, awesome posture and supposedly the repertoire to start; his very low arm slot might elevate his walk levels even if the command is sound, but I expect him to make life difficult on opposing hitters. Similar to Puk, his future role will determine the direction of Dunning's value, as a recent history in the bullpen could have him sent back there if he doesn't adapt quickly to the schedule of a major league starter.

Matt Manning, RHP, DET
Selected: 9 (6), High School
DOB: 1/28/98

I think that Manning has a tremendous ceiling, with velocity that reaches 97 mph, great height at 6-6 and a hard breaking ball. His basketball skills have cut into some of his development time as an amateur, however, which combined with his young age and the need for him to develop the changeup means that he is still a ways off from making an impact.

Cal Quantrill, RHP, SD
Selected: 8 (5), Stanford
DOB: 2/10/95

He might be theoretically advanced given his age, bloodlines and college pedigree, but Quantrill will likely be building stamina in a similar vein as a high school arm due to his coming back from Tommy John surgery. He still hasn't pitched yet this year, and many pitchers don't return to 100-percent of the pitcher they were before the surgery, so the risk of complications in his repaired elbow or wrinkles in his development path effectively counterbalance any of the aforementioned advantages. He won't likely be contributing in bigs until the end 2018 at the earliest, and that's if everything goes smoothly. However, he wasn't without risks prior to the injury, either, and he has some of the same potential issues with mechanical consistency that fellow Cardinal Mark Appel has dealt with as a pro.

Zack Burdi, RHP, CHW
Selected: 26 (12), Louisville
DOB: 3/9/95

Burdi comes from a hard-throwing family, with brothers throughout the professional ranks. He's not the hardest-throwing of the bunch yet Zack has hit up to 101 mph on the gun and sits in the 95-98 range, speaking volumes as to how hard his brothers throw, though Zach is considered to be more refined with better command of his three-pitch arsenal. He could be on a faster track for the show, and the White Sox quick promotion of Carlos Rodon indicates that Burdi could get an early audition to the show if the Sox think that he can handle the job.

T.J. Zeuch, RHP, TOR
Selected: 21 (10), Pittsburgh
DOB: 8/1/95

Zeuch is all about the tall release point, as the 6-7 right-hander has an over-the-top arm slot that further exaggerates his height. Though I might not be a fan of this strategy in a vacuum, I think that there's a chance that Zeuch moves quickly through the Toronto system, and the Jays previous work with Marco Estrada - who also came to them with an extreme over-the-top slot -- encourages optimism that they can get more out of Zuech, and in due time. I think he still has some mechanical development ahead, but the fact that he is working from a relatively simple delivery as a baseline should help to speed up the process.

Riley Pint, RHP, COL
Selected: 4 (2), High School
DOB: 9/6/97

A pitcher with a 102 mph fastball will supposedly work anywhere, even at altitude, but we've been hearing about the fabled pitcher who succeeds in Coors like a mysterious Yeti that emerges from the Rocky Mountains adorned in purple and black. The delivery and the age suggest a long development path for Pint, while the delivery and lack of command suggest that he could have some speed bumps along the way, but we can't ignore the upside with a fastball that big. Such velocity naturally elevates the risk, both of injury and that Pint will have lost a tick or three by the time that he reaches the highest level. Consider that fellow Rockies uber-prospect Jon Gray is a college product who has shown to be a quick learner whose baseline was already much higher than that of Pint, with a fastball that earned an 80 grade in addition to an outstanding slider; Gray was drafted in '13 and is getting an extended look in year three. I think that's the upside down the road but that it will take longer to get there, as the hope is that Pint has Gray's effectiveness on the road but in all likelihood the number-four overall pick will be bench-worthy material when pitching at home (through no fault of his own). If the future home park were not a factor, then Pint would ranka few spots higher on this list.

Dakota Hudson, RHP, BOS
Selected: 34 (18), Mississippi State
DOB: 9/15/94

Hudson has been on the prospect map for awhile but inconsistency during his first two college seasons raised the eyebrows of concern befor his stock recently started trending upward. Owner of a mid-90s fastball with good movement as well as a hard cutter/slider hybrid, Hudson's slower pitches - the changeup and curve - might determine whether he sticks in a rotation or is a better fit for the bullpen. He was the Red Sox third pick of the first round, but the baseline stuff and mechanics are more encouraging than many of the pitchers drafted before him. In particular, Hudson has excellent momentum, and the efficiency of his powerful route to the plate is exemplified by how well he follows the baseball after release point, with his momentum taking the body forward toward his target. He has some flail and a bit of tilt, but he's really not bad on either count, and I could see him move quickly through the system based on team need if he proves to be a quick adaptor in the minors.

Forrest Whitley, RHP, HOU
Selected: 17 (8), High School
DOB: 9/15/97

Whitley's delivery features a bit of the Felix Hernandez reverse-twist into max leg lift, in which he turns his torso away from the hitter, and the right-handed Whitley brings considerable power to the table. His balance is stable in the X-plane (side-to-side), but he has some rock-n-roll with the delivery as the back-side collapses and he leans back toward second base with during his stride. His fastball has grown 15-20 mph over the past few years, and the rapid increase brings could be enough for the Astros to avoid the gas pedal with his development.

Ian Anderson, RHP, ATL
Selected: 3 (1), High School
DOB: 5/2/98

He may have been the first pitcher taken, but there is little indication that he was even the top pitcher on Atlanta's board so much as the best value, a pitcher who would sign below slot and allow them to shoot high with the next two picks. Anderson is currently unsigned, but the Braves must have known something to have gone $1.38 million over slot on LHP Joey Wentz (no. 41 overall) and $1.04 million over slot on LHP Kyle Muller (no. 44). Assuming that they get all three,, an impressive haul of pitchers that will give the Braves more of a buffer in graduating some arms to the big leagues, though they sacrificed top-end players to make it happen. It will likely be awhile until we see Anderson in the bigs, and his ceiling is relatively limited for the first pitcher off the board.

Eric Lauer, LHP, SD
Selected: 25 (11), Kent State
DOB: 6/3/95

Lauer was the Padres third pick of the top 25, two of which were used on pitchers, and though I don't love the Quantrill pick, the combination of he and Lauer gives the Friars a pair of college arms -- one from each side of the rubber. He he has some third-base lean during his stride but it doesn't get worse into and out of foot strike, like most leaning pitchers, and Lauer finishes with posture that's average to above. The key to his approach is movement, with natural cut on his fastball, so the ceiling will likely be limited given the low expectation for strikeouts.

Braxton Garrett, LHP, MIA
Selected: 7 (4), High School
DOB: 8/5/97

Garrett has earned rave reviews in other corners, but I'm not big on his eventual fantasy impact. He relies heavily on secondary pitches to be effective, with modest velo numbers that could limit his eventual use of Effective Velocity in playing the chess match with opposing hitters. His delivery is very rotational and his trigger timing is inconsistent, creating hurdles in his development of pitch command, an aspect that becomes even more critical for a pitcher who can't fall back on pitch-speed. His key pitch is a curveball that can get loopy and leaves the hand at a different trajectory than his fastball, giving advanced hitters an early indicator of what he's throwing and therefore upping the onus on his maintaining an exceptional spin rate for the pitch translate to the highest level.

Anthony Kay, LHP, NYM
Selected: 31 (16), Connecticut
DOB: 3/21/95

Kay is by far the shortest pitcher on the list, falling short of six-foot-even. He tries to make up for the height disadvantage with an arm slot that is straight over the top, invoking considerable spine-tilt that further limits his distance at release point. He strides open but lands on the imaginary centerline that runs from rubber to plate, and the combination of an open stride and heavy tilt gives him some mechanical aspects of Ubaldo Jimenez, which is exactly as insulting as it sounds. He lessens the tilt on occasion, most often on the changeup, and the lower arm slot that results has effectively tipped the pitch to even amateur coaches, further lengthening Kay's developmental agenda.

Cody Sedlock, RHP, BAL
Selected: 27 (13), Illinois
DOB: 6/19/95

Sedlock s a big hip-whip guy, such that his front shoulder looks like it has been soldered to a stiff pole that is connected to his front hip, and his hips and shoulders fire together late in the kinetic sequence. He also has some side-to-side wobble and a heavy dose of flexion, and the combination results in poor posture at release point. I could see Sedlock being promoted quickly if he puts up good numbers at lower levels, but I think that he will have major problems with finding consistency in the majors. Thrown in the fact that he was transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation just last summer, and his progression through the minors could be slowed as he build the stamina necessary for the starting rotation.

Cole Ragans, LHP, TEX
Selected: 30 (15), High School
DOB: 12/12/97

Scouts rave about his delivery and command, but Ragans is another pitcher whose late hip rotation and lack of hip-shoulder separation will likely lead to problems with finding a consistent trigger at the highest level. I would call it a "hip-whip" if the rotational elements weren't so slow, such that the word "whip" is misleading. The lack of torque is likely behind his merely high-80s velo readings, giving the left-hander the undesirable combination of pedestrian stuff and messy mechanics that will make it exceedingly difficult for him to ascend to the highest level in due time.