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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League matchup between World Series hopefuls. These two teams made noise in the playoffs two seasons ago, with the Phillies taking on the Padres in the 2022 NLCS and winning in five games. There are definitely a lot of players from those teams still playing in this matchup, but there are definitely some new faces as well.
The Phillies are off to an unbelievable start this season at 47-24 and they did a lot of it recently with multiple key injuries. Brandon Marsh was out for a while, Trea Turner missed about six weeks and now J.T. Realmuto is on the IL for a long period of time. However, they are still 47-24 and now they are starting to get healthy again. Brandon Marsh returned to the lineup yesterday and now Trea Turner is expected to be back in the lineup today.
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The Padres are pretty much just doing what they do to start this season, and that is play .500 baseball. They swept a series against the Athletics at home and it seemed like they were finally stringing some wins together, although they needed a couple walk-offs to do it. Then they traveled to New York for their last series and were swept in three games by the Mets. They are jut as inconsistent as it gets. The Padres are just 37-38 this season now coming off that sweep in New York. For whatever reason, they just can't string many wins together and that has been a problem for them for years now. They are slightly better on the road this season at 19-17 but the Phillies are 27-10 at home.
Cristopher Sanchez is starting for the Phillies and he has been great all season long for them, going 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. He is coming off a bad start but he had pitched well in six straight outings before that, so he was probably due. The Padres have also struggled all season long against lefties, ranked 21st in the league in wOBA against lefties. Randy Vasquez is starting for the Padres and he has been good since being added back into the starting rotation. He has struggled a lot more on the road, though. The Phillies are also ranked eighth in the league in wOBA against righties.
The Phillies also have a big bullpen advantage over the Padres. They are ranked 10th in the league in bullpen ERA while the Padres are ranked 16th, but the Phillies' whole bullpen is totally rested and they will have everyone available today. The Padres, on the other hand, will likely be without Enyel De Los Santos and Stephen Kolek after each pitching two days in a row. Jeremiah Estrada and Yuki Matsui pitched 27 pitches and 26 pitches yesterday, so they will both be available today, but even if they appear, they are unlikely to be as effective.
Trea Turner returning to the lineup for the Phillies today is huge, especially with the injury to Realmuto last week. I also think the Padres facing a lefty is a huge factor here. The Padres are ranked 3rd in the league in wOBA against righties this season, so when they face a lefty their lineup isn't nearly as effective. My main worry is that the Padres usually play down to their competition against bad teams and play up to their competition against good teams, but they also just got swept by a hot Mets team, and I know it's juicy, but I think the Phillies are one of the few teams worth this juice right now.
BEST BET
Phillies ML -185 vs. Padres (DraftKings)
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