This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Sunday, May 12
MLB fans: Get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal
Is This the Right Time to Back the Houston Astros?
The Houston Astros are two games from having the worst record in the American League. They are in last place in the AL West with a 14-25 record, averaging a -123 wager and posting a terrible -33 percent ROI. The Under is a solid 22-14-3 for 61 percent winning bets. They have won four of their last 10 games and just three of their last 10 series. The Astros have been outscored by 34 runs in the current season and have lost a league-most nine games by one run.
I learned early on in my 20-year Wall Street career as an institutional trader you simply "Do not try to catch a falling knife." In other words, if a stock or commodity is in free-fall you do not try and think you are being smarter than the market and buy it. The same strategy applies to sports betting markets and the Astros right now are that falling knife. They have the potential to turn the season around, but to invest in them now is financially dangerous. Instead, wait until they do win seven or eight of their last 10 games and then consider a wager backing the Astros.
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
The Astros are getting men on base, ranking sixth most with an average of 14.08 total bases per game, but they simply are not getting them across home plate, where they rank 26th averaging 3.69 runners left in scoring position per game. The pitching staff has been a massive problem, where they rank 28th with a horrid 5.01 ERA and 28th with a 1.484 WHIP. They are allowing 1.23 home runs per nine innings, ranking 28th. Making things even worse is that they give out an average of 4.36 walks-per-nine innings and rank second worst in MLB with a horrible 1.93 strikeouts-per-walk ratio. If the team ERA begins a downward trend over the remainder of May that could signal this Astros squad can make a winning run and get their record back to .500 by the end of June.
Best Bets for the Phillies vs Marlins
The Phillies led by Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and the best starting pitching rotation in MLB are having a great season by any measure. They are currently 16 games over .500, but lead the Atlanta Braves by just two games in the NL East Division race. Generally, teams that end the season with 20 more wins than losses make the playoffs, so they are well on their way to achieving that and more.
The Phillies offense has scored seven or more runs in 13 of their 40 games or 33 percent of their games played, ranking second most in MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers have scored seven or more runs in 14 games this season. They are a league best in scoring first in 28 of their 40 games, and have won 21 of those 28 games. In the 12 games in which their opponent scored first, they have mounted comebacks in seven of them. They have the best record in MLB, ranking second in scoring an average of 5.18 RPG, second in batting at .263, and sixth in home runs per game. The lineup is disciplined at the plate and averages 3.70 walks per game, ranking sixth.
Third baseman Alec Bohm is having a breakout season and is batting .343, ranking fourth in MLB and second in the NL trailing only the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani, who is batting .352. Trea Turner is also batting .343 on the season, but has been sidelined until at least mid-June with a hamstring injury. Many teams who lose a one of their best players struggle to maintain their winning ways, but not the Phillies.
The Phillies have won the first two games of this three-game series against their NL East-rival Marlins and will look for the sweep with their ace Zack Wheeler on the hill. He is 4-3 in eight starts with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.872 WHIP, including 63 strikeouts spanning 49.1 innings of work. Wheeler is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and is priced at 240 at FanDuel. The Phillies' second pitcher in their outstanding rotation is Aaron Nola, who is priced at 4,500 (ranks 13th) and their third starter is the remarkable left-hander Ranger Suarez, who is 7-0 and priced at 1,100 (ranks 5th).
How Great is Zack Wheeler Pitching Now?
Wheeler has won his last four starts, allowing one earned run and recording 33 strikeouts over 25.1 innings of work. He has allowed an outstanding 32 percent strikeout rate, 86 MPH exit velocity, a .188 expected batting average, a 5 percent barrel rate and a 31 percent whiff percentage. For his career, he has posted an 11-4 record with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP in 23 starts against the Marlins.
The Marlins will have southpaw Braxton Garrett on the hill, making his season debut after suffering shoulder pain and a dead arm in the preseason. He has been steadily improving his arm strength at the Marlins' Rookie League and Triple-A Jacksonville. In his last start Monday, he threw 82 pitches and will not have any pitch restrictions for his start against the Phillies.
Bet the Phillies using the run line priced as -130 road favorites boxed with Wheeler.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Sunday
The following betting algorithm has produced a losing 59-88 record, but by averaging a 185 underdog bet has resulted in an 11 percent ROI that has made the Dime Bettor a $27,130 profit over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on any dog where the favorite is priced at -200 or more.
· The favorite has batted .230 or worse over its last 15 games.
· The favorite's bullpen allowed five or more runs its previous game.
If the game is the last game of a divisional series these live dogs have responded even better with a 13-20 record that has averaged a 195 wager resulting in a 21 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $10,970 profit over the past 15 seasons.
This Betting System is targeting the Oakland Athletics priced as a 205-underdog when they face Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners today.
