Oak's Corner: Baez and Mazara Breakouts

We are now at the six-week mark of the season, and that's usually the time I take my first long look at the standings in my leagues. Enough stuff has stabilized so that you don't move up or down 20 points in one night (at least not without an extremely good or bad night!), and you can get a good read on your strengths and weaknesses This is also the spot where I start to make decisions on struggling fringe players who aren't showing signs of breaking out of it. This is a good time to see what categories you are behind in and determine if you're fine and within striking distance, or are starting to dig a hole that could be an issue, which is a sign that's time to attack free agency or trading with that category in mind.

The Week That Was

When talking about draft profits through the early going, Javier Baez has to be near the top of that list, considering his ADP of 114 in 34 NFBC Main Event drafts. Baez has been a fantasy beast across the board so far with 25 runs scored, 33 RBI and 10 homers to go with his .287 average. The knock on Baez, especially after his initial call-up to Chicago in 2014, was that he struck out too much and that was definitely the case in 2017 when his K rate was 28.3 percent. His .345 BABIP in 2017 helped his batting average make up for the strikeouts, as he still managed to hit .273.

So far through 33 games, Baez has taken a significant leap with his contact rate, only striking out in 19.7 percent of his plate appearances. His hard hit rate rose three percent in 2017 and he has upped that even more so far this season, currently sporting a 37.3 percentage rate. Further, he has ramped up his line drive rate to 23 percent from 15.4 percent in 2017. The only thing keeping him from a full power breakout is his low fly ball rate, but he has been helped so far with an elevated 29.4 percent HR/FB rate. The frightening thing is that Baez has been able to post all these stats even though Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo didn't really get going until this week, and Willson Contreras hasn't really started to hit. As the weather warms in Chicago, the top half of this offense is going to start clicking, and I absolutely love what that looks like for Baez.

Sean Newcomb has been one of the more interesting pitching stories so far in 2018, posting a 2.88 through his first seven starts. When Newcomb was called up to the Braves in 2017, the walks were a huge issue; he had a 5.15 BB/9 in Triple-A last year, and that issue stuck around in the majors with him having a 5.13 BB/9 walk rate in his first 100 MLB innings. The stuff was evident, and he had an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate, but with that many walks, it's nearly impossible to post a good ERA with absolutely no chance at a good WHIP. Not only has Newcomb dropped the walk rate to under 4.00 BB/9 for the first time since he was in Single-A with the Angels in 2014, but at the same time he has upped the strikeout rate to 10.62 K/9.

In both seasons, he has avoided hard contact well, with a career hard hit rate of only 26.9 percent. In looking at his current pitch mix, he has doubled the usage of his change-up from 10 to 20 percent, and while it's still not a plus pitch according to Fangraphs pitch values, it is better, and his fastball has been much more effective this year (even with a one mph velocity drop), possibly due to him showcasing the change more and keeping batters off balance. The key stat for Newcomb moving forward clearly will be the walks, and while they have improved, he has still walked three batters or more in five of his seven starts. If he can start to cut those even more as the season goes on, he's going to climb the pitcher ranks and 2019 draft boards rapidly.

I was neutral on Nomar Mazara heading into draft season, but after talking to some smart people who play NFBC and them pointing out how young he is, I started to warm to him a bit, but I sure didn't see the full breakout coming this quickly. Mazara, still only 23, hit 20 homers in 2016 and 2017, but with a closer look I noticed some real developments in his profile between those two seasons. He boosted his hard hit rate four points to 32.6 percent in 2017 and also hit five percent more fly balls as he was growing into power, all while maintaining a solid strikeout rate right around 20 percent.

Mazara has ramped it up in a big way so far in 2018, already mashing 10 homers in his first 38 games, while hitting .294 with a .902 OPS. His hard hit rate has grown even more, and it currently sits at a high 40.4 percent. He also has added a number of line drives this season, with a current 23.9 percent line drive rate. The increase in his ground ball rate to 52.3 percent is my main concern, at least when it comes to projecting his homers the rest of the way, as he's currently benefiting from a very fluky 38.5 percent HR/FB rate. One would think that his fly ball numbers will revert to at least 2017 levels, and if they do, the increase in hard hit balls will make up for the HR/FB eventually coming down to normal levels.

Mazara is locked into the middle of the Rangers lineup, and with Adrian Beltre and Delino DeShields back from injury, and Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus returning in the near future, the lineup (and his home park) should be an excellent place for the 23-year-old to continue his breakout campaign. I'm not selling high on him right now, just holding and enjoying the ride, plus his swing is damn sweet to watch.

FAAB Feelings

Tyler Anderson: Anderson had a horrible start to the year with a seven earned run game in Arizona, but then he ran off a nice string of starts before scuffling a little bit in his last start, allowing four earned runs in five innings to the Angels. During his solid run of six starts, he allowed two runs or fewer, although one of them was cut very short when he left due to an injury after getting only four outs. The biggest issue with Anderson is of course his home park, which is about to get fully firing as the weather warms up, but that's not an issue coming up this week.

Anderson is available in 22 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues and gets a road two-step this week at San Diego and San Francisco. Anderson has had some issues with walks this year with nearly four free passes per nine, but he has also jumped up the strikeout rate to 9.39 K/9. Home runs have also been an issue, as his fly ball rate has jumped up eight percent from 2017, while his ground ball rate has dropped 12 percent. On the plus side, after taking a jump up in swinging strike rate in 2017, Anderson has elevated that another notch with his rate currently at 13.6 percent. The new strikeout rate looks real so far, and with trips to good pitching parks this week, I'm not as worried about the increase in fly balls. He's definitely an add and play for me this week, but a longer term hold will depend on if he can maintain the strikeouts while also getting his ground ball pitch back to where it was in 2017, as a fly ball pitcher with half his games in Coors isn't something that will let me sleep well at night.

Dustin Fowler: Fowler has finally been called up by the A's after 30 Triple-A games, as the A's wanted him to get full-time at-bats in the minors for a bit after coming off his gruesome 2017 knee injury. Fowler has shown that the knee is healthy so far by swiping eight bags in Triple-A while hitting .310. Fowler is the A's top outfield prospect and joins the team after being acquired at the 2017 trade deadline in the move that sent Sonny Gray to the Bronx. Fowler immediately becomes the A's top defensive option in center field, as they had been piecing together options and without any success. A full-time job is his for the taking. This one pains me, as I speculated a couple weeks ago on Fowler in the NFBC Main Event, but due to a roster crunch and not enough healthy outfielders, I had to drop him back into the pool. He is heavily owned in 15-team leagues, but in NFBC 12-teamers, he's only 20 percent owned coming into FAAB this weekend.

The A's outfield has struggled offensively as of late. After a hot streak, Mark Canha is two for his last 20 and was never a long-term answer in center field. Jake Smolinski has done absolutely nothing this season, hitting .121 over 35 plate appearances, and Stephen Piscotty is only hitting .248 so far with two homers in 134 plate appearances. The other lefty in the outfield with Fowler is Matt Joyce and he also has been rough with a .191 average and two homers over 118 plate appearances. Fowler has shown himself to be a nice power/speed combo guy, hitting 12 homers with 25 steals in 132 Double-A games in 2016 and 13 homers with 13 steals in 70 Triple-A games prior to his call-up to the Yankees last year. Fowler is an aggressive add for me in any 15-team league where he may be available due to his stolen base potential, and I also think he's worth a strong look in 12-team leagues (I'll be bidding), as he should be in the lineup most days pretty quickly due to the limited options the A's can toss out there in the outfield.

A Closer Look

The Blue Jays closer situation quickly became tumultuous this week after Roberto Osuna was arrested and charged with assaulting a woman. Major League Baseball placed Osuna on administrative leave under their domestic abuse policy, and while that leave is for seven days, the commissioner can extend it if circumstances warrant, and that will depend on what MLB determines after hearing from Osuna and presumably others involved. Osuna has his first court date on June 18th, but if or when he returns to the Jays this year is up in the air. There are obviously more important factors in this situation than our fantasy teams, but if you own Osuna or need saves, you have to take a look at this situation in FAAB this weekend.

The Jays situation in their bullpen is a bit murky as they have a number of guys who could possibly close, but that murkiness can help keep bidding down, as there isn't one obvious guy everyone will bidon, well, at least not yet. Tyler Clippard got the first post-Osuna save opportunity for the Jays on Wednesday night and he threw a scoreless inning to earn the save. If he were to lock in another save or two before the weekend, the situation would clarify, and there'd be heavy bidding on him. Clippard has prior closing experiencing and did save 32 games for the Nats in 2012, but I'm not a fan. Clippard wasn't good in 2017, posting a 4.77 ERA, and while he had a nice 10.74 K Rate, he struggled with both walks and homers. He walked 4.63 batters per nine and also allowed 10 homers in only 60.1 innings. His ERA so far this year looks nice at 1.40, but the walks are still present at 4.19 BB/9, and he has already given up three homers in only 19.1 innings. His BABIP is currently an absurdly low .146, and that number and the ERA are both going up soon. I'm desperate for saves in a couple of leagues, and if he locks down another and looks like the guy, I suppose I have to bid, but I'm not going to bid heavily, and I'd prefer to speculate elsewhere in the Jays' pen.

Seung Hwan Oh and John Axford are also in the Jays' pen and have closer experience, but I have zero interest in Axford after watching him in Oakland the last two seasons. Oh is a little more interesting, as he was excellent in 2016 for the Cardinals, but he then fell off significantly in 2017, most notably dropping his strikeout rate from 11.64 K/9 to 8.19 K/9. He does have a 1.65 ERA so far in 2018, but the Ks are still under 9.00 per nine, and his swinging strike rate has remained at the 2017 levels rather than jumping back up anywhere near his 2016 levels. Most notable for me in how the Jays view the current situation is that of the four possible options, Oh was used first on Wednesday night and pitched the sixth inning.

The most interesting arm in the Jays pen may be Ryan Tepera, but even his numbers don't cause me to run to the bidding line and toss a bunch of money at him. He has a career 3.38 ERA in 146.2 big league innings, but those come with an 8.59 K/9 strikeout rate with over three walks per nine. One positive note is that the strikeouts have been on an upswing and currently sit at 9.68 K/9, which would be a career high for Tepera. However, even with the strikeouts rising, homers have been an issue this year. He's already allowed already in 17.2 innings, including two in his last three outings. If Osuna is out long term, which is a very real possibility, someone is going to get saves for the Jays, and while this weekend may answer some of these questions, I'm likely bidding on Clippard because I happen to need saves (but probably not enough to get him), but I'll also toss bids on Tepera and avoid Oh and Axford.

Series of the Weekend

Brewers at Rockies. This wasn't the series I figured I'd be highlighting six weeks into the season, but both teams have been solid to start, each sitting in second place in their divisions. The strangest thing about the Rockies season so far is how good they have been on the road. Historically, the Rockies are much better at home, but they are impressively 15-8 away from Coors. This series is at Coors, but if the Rockies can start to win there, they could suddenly hang around in an NL West that has become a bit more open with the Dodgers' struggles and injuries. The Brewers got a jump on the Rockies in the opening game of the four-game series with a 5-2 win on Thursday night.

The key to the Rockies chances this season could rest on whether Jon Gray has truly turned around his season. After sporting a 7.09 ERA over his first five starts, the Rockies ace has been fantastic in his last three, allowing only a single earned run over 20 innings. In those starts, he has struck out 25 batters against only three walks. There have been reports that Gray worked on the grip and mechanics with his slider after his early struggles, and that could be part of the reason for his turnaround. Gray posted a 3.67 ERA in 110.1 innings in 2017, which was even more impressive considering it came with a 3.03 ERA at Coors Field.

Surprisingly, the Brewers have found their early success through pitching and not with their offense, which had added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain this offseason. The Brewers rank 27th in baseball in runs scored and OPS and are also in the bottom 10 in batting average and slugging percentage. Cain and Yelich have been good, both with an OPS over .800, but Domingo Santana has been a huge disappointment with a .665 OPS and only one homer in 112 at-bats after hitting 30 homers in 2017. In addition, Orlando Arcia, a popular breakout middle infield target this spring, has been awful, posted a .546 OPS with a .212 average and only two homers and one stolen base.

However, the Brewers pitching staff has been great as a whole, as they currently possess the fifth best ERA in MLB at 3.44. The story of their staff has been the bullpen, as they have four primary relievers with ERAs under 2.00, and that's even with their closer, Corey Knebel, missing most of the season so far with a hamstring injury. Josh Hader took over most of the closing duties when Knebel went down' and he has posted an obscene 18.82 K/9 strikeout rate, including a 2.2 inning save where he recorded all eight outs via strikeout. Behind Hader, Jeremy Jeffress has quietly been a fantastic story, sporting a ridiculous 0.43 ERA through his first 21 innings and even struck out the side for his third save on Thursday night. Of course, Jeffress still doesn't strike out many guys, and his BABIP and strand rate sit at crazy levels, but he has also suppressed hard contact at a 26.5 percent hard hit rate, and one earned run over 21 innings is damn impressive any way you look at it. Rounding out the elite Brewers pen has been the performances of Matt Albers and Dan Jennings, with 1.13 and 1.84 ERAs respectively. Knebel was activated this week, and this bullpen could truly be a force as the season progresses. This should be a fun matchup — they often are in Coors — between two teams that could be in the Wild Card or division mixes come September.