Oak's Corner: Bummed About Bumgarner

The Week That Was

• The Madison Bumgarner injury hit my squads like a ton of bricks last weekend. Bumgarner was my first-round pick at pick 13 in my NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas earlier this month. In a contest with an overall prize like the NFBC, you can still compete in your league with a long-term injury to your best player, but competing in the overall certainly just became a significantly uphill battle. Of course, part of the appeal to Bumgarner was the fact that prior to last weekend, he had never been on the DL and durability can be quite hard to find with a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, injuries happen to everyone's team, and if Bumgarner got hurt delivering a pitch, I would have been upset but also would realize that it's part of the game we play. I have to admit it's a bit more annoying that it happened on an off day during an activity that should probably be reserved for the offseason. I understand my fantasy team is quite irrelevant in the grand scheme and I'm glad Bumgarner didn't injure himself more seriously, but it's hard not to feel snake bitten when your first round pick suffers a long-term injury in April while on a dirt bike.

• After missing all but 11 games in 2016 due to a shoulder injury, Michael Brantley was a player on whom I had little interest in taking a chance on this season, but he sure is making me look bad for that so far. For all his great traits as a hitter, Brantley was someone who maxed out at 20 homers, and I was concerned that the shoulder issue would continue to sap his already marginal power. Brantley came out of the gates blazing with four homers, 15 RBI and three steals over his first 17 games. His 28.6 percent fly ball rate does put a cap on his power, but he's been smoking the ball so far with an absurd 53.1 percent hard hit rate. Brantley's calling card over the years has always been his impressive contact rate, as he struck out less than nine percent of his plate appearances in both 2014 and 2015, but this season, Brantley's strikeout rate is a very surprising 23.3 percent. It will be interesting to watch Brantley the next few weeks to see if his strikeout rates reverts to normal levels or he has made a conscious effort to open up his swing for more power.

• After a nightmare 2015 where he hit .219 in 97 games, Jose Ramirez has broken out in a huge way and transformed himself into a fantasy star. After a 2016 where J-Ram hit .312 with 11 homers and 22 steals, Ramirez has started 2017 red hot with five homers already to go with 18 RBI. Ramirez is slugging .587 and has bumped his hard hit rate nearly 10 points to 37.3 percent while hitting a career-high 43.3 percent fly balls. Ramirez is in a prime run production slot hitting fifth every day in the Tribe lineup behind Edwin Encarnacion. Ramirez is a firm hold for me right now and I'm not thinking about selling him, even at his elevated value.

• Luis Severino was a bit of a draft darling in 2016, getting a lot of hype off a 2015 debut with the Yankees where he posted a 2.89 ERA over 62.1 major league innings. Severino busted in a huge way in 2016, tossing up a 5.83 ERA over 71 major league innings and also spent half his season in Triple-A. The hype coming on Severino coming into 2017 was tepid at best as shown by his 350 ADP, but he has looked fantastic through his first four starts. Through 27 innings, Severino has an exceptional 33:4 K/BB ratio to go along with a sparkling 0.78 WHIP. Severino flashed large strikeout rates in the minors so the whiffs could very well be for real and combine well with a history of solid walk rates in the minors. I'm a buyer on Severino right now, even in the AL East, and if his owner is looking to sell a bit high on him, I'm willing to pay the price.

• After 2016 playoff and 2017 World Baseball Classic runs full of highlight plays, Javier Baez and his valuable multiposition eligibility was pushed up draft boards and he became a top 10 round pick in 15-team leagues with an ADP of 128. For the price, I was concerned about some playing time issues as the Cubs needed to find a spot for Ben Zobrist most days with Kyle Schwarber back healthy and playing a lot of left field. The playing time has been an issue with only 15 starts through the Cubs first 21 games, but his production while in the lineup has become the real concern. The strikeout rate has always been the black eye for Baez, but he was able to cut that to a more manageable 24 percent in 2016 over 142 games. In the early going this season, Baez has reverted back to his old ways with a 31.7 percent strikeout rate while hitting .214 with only one homer and zero steals. If he can't cut the K-Rate to 2016 levels, I am very concerned about losing more playing time on a stacked roster and he is not someone I am buying, even if the price tag is lower than it was a month ago.

• Gregory Polanco has a power breakout in 2016 with 22 homers, a large boost from the nine homers he smoked in 2015. His hard hit rate rose to 35.7 percent in 2016 and coming into his 25-year-old season, he was a huge target for me in drafts. Polanco has shown exactly none of the 2016 power with zero homers and an abysmal .061 through his first 18 games. His hard hit rate supports the lack of power, checking it at a mere 22.6 percent, a really bad combo with 54.7 percent ground balls so far. Polanco had a left shoulder issue late in the spring and I am concerned that shoulder might be affecting his power and his swing. Polanco has tossed in five steals so far to save some of his fantasy value, but he has been hugely disappointing so considering where he was drafted. I'm still bullish on Polanco as the summer progresses but would like to see some pop soon to make me feel better about him being passed the shoulder issues.

• Plenty has been written about James Paxton both coming into drafts and so far this season, but wow, talk about living up to the hype. He was pushed up in drafts consistently as we got closer to the season, but he has rewarded those owners with a 1.39 ERA and three wins through his first five starts. "Big Maple" (yes, you read that right) hasn't allowed a run in four of his five starts and sports an impressive 39:6 K/BB rate. Paxton is rapidly making his way into the second tier of starting pitchers behind Clayton Kershaw with health his only question mark right now.

• I mentioned on the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Podcast with Jeff Erickson (if you aren't listening, you should, Jeff is very smart!) on Monday that I consider Danny Salazar a prime trade target right now. His owner likely realizes that the good stats are coming, but if you can play up the 4.37 ERA and unsightly 1.50 WHIP to get any kind of discount, now is the time to strike. It needs to be said that walks have continued to be an issue for Salazar with 4.13 BB/9 in 2016 and 4.37 BB/9 so far this season and that is also going to hamper the WHIP. However, the strikeout numbers for Salazar are insanely good with 14.29 K/9 supported by an otherworldly 16.7 percent swinging strike rate, a number that trails only Jacob deGrom. Prior to 2016, Salazar's walk rate in the majors was under 3.00 BB/9 so there is some possible upside there with the massive strikeouts, the ERA is coming down very soon. In addition to the K's, Salazar has been able to limit hard contact to only 25 percent so far, another sign that his numbers will be moving the right direction very soon. Finally, it must be noted that Salazar's ridiculous .431 Babip is the highest among qualified starter by more than 40 points.

• On the flip side of how I feel about Salazar are my current thoughts Cole Hamels. Hamels' surface numbers so far look very good with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through his first five starts, but there are a lot of underlying stats to be concerned about. Hamels' strikeouts are astoundingly low so far at only 4.13 K/9, a number far below his career strikeout rates, which usually linger around a strikeout per inning. One has to think that K-Rate has to go up, but a look at his swinging strike rate made me even more concerned at 7.5 percent as he usually sits in the 12-13 percent range with that stat. Further, his hard hit rate currently sits at a career-high 36 percent, a season after it rose above 30 percent for the first time in nine seasons. The .219 Babip is going to rise, especially at his current hard hit rate, and since Hamels still has a lot of name value plus a solid start on the surface, he's someone I would be looking to move right away.
  

FAAB Feelings

With both of their offenses sputtering and records under .500, the Giants and Dodgers dipped into their farm system and called up 21-year-old rookies in an attempt to jump-start their squads. Both of these player should be at the center of some spirited bidding this weekend, especially with most teams still possessing a large percentage of their FAAB budgets.

Cody Bellinger: After many local writers projected that Bellinger would not be called up until June at the earliest, the Dodgers pulled the trigger on Bellinger after placing center fielder Joc Pederson on the 10-Day-DL. A fourth round pick in 2013, Bellinger broke out in 2015 with 30 homers in Single-A and then followed up with 26 big flies across Double-A And Triple-A in 2016. In 18 games in Triple-A in 2017, he had already homered five times and also had swiped seven bags, a surprising number considering he hadn't stolen more than 10 in any season. Bellinger dropped his strikeout rate from 27.6 percent in 2015 to 20.2 percent in 2016, but the number jumped back up to 28.6 percent in his short stint in Triple-A this year. Bellinger can hit for power and while he's going to definitely strike out some, the biggest question for me in bidding on him this weekend is how his playing time will work out the rest of the way.

The Dodgers clearly called him up to play every day while he's with the big club, the question lingers whether he will he stay up when Pederson returns from the DL. Left field is pretty open for the Dodgers, and it would seem to be that as long as Bellinger doesn't appear overmatched in his first few weeks with the team, they will keep him up to play left field. He has struggled in his first three games with the Dodgers, going 1-for-10 with five punch-outs, but to be fair, he has also faced two lefties in his three starts and the righty he got to face was Johnny Cueto. This weekend, he'll get three Philadelphia righties, and how he performs will determine just how high the bidding goes. The strikeouts are an issue, but the other skills are legit, too, especially since he will likely toss in some swipes, and I'm going to be aggressive with him this weekend as this will be the one shot we have to roster him. Without knowing what he does this weekend (and that will matter), I'm going to assume the bids will be in the $250 to $300 range in 15-teamers and maybe $200 $225 in 12-teamers with some huge outlier leagues thrown in the mix.

Christian Arroyo: Arroyo, a first-rounder for the Giants in 2013, has already made a splash in his debut, hitting a two-run homer Wednesday night off former Giant Sergio Romo. Arroyo earned the call-up after hitting a sizzling .446 in 16 Triple-A games with three homers and two steals. It appears the Giants are planning to play Arroyo at third base while Eduardo Nunez moves to left field. From a fantasy angle, I think Arroyo is going to be overbid this weekend, especially after the homer off Romo. While Arroyo possesses a nice strikeout rate (only 13.9 percent in 2016 in Double-A) that should allow him to hit for a solid average, I don't think he possesses enough power or speed to make a big fantasy impact. He only hit three homers in 119 games in 2016 and while he may grow into some power, he's only 21; I don't expect it to happen immediately. In deeper mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, he's definitely worth a bid for the counting stats and playing time, I think he will go for a price higher than I'm willing to pay for a guy who doesn't have power or speed upside yet.

A Closer Look

The situation in Toronto with Roberto Osuna is starting to be a concern. Osuna blew his third save on Thursday afternoon, allowing a two-out, two-run game-tying homer to Randal Grichuk. Incredibly, Osuna has now had four save opportunities in 2017 and has only converted one of them. Overall, Osuna has six appearances and has allowed runs in four of them. It should be noted that he started the season on the DL with cervical spasms, and it's possible that he's just still working back into form, but it is also possible that his neck is still bugging him. Either way, he isn't getting it done right now for the Jays.

On the plus side, Osuna does have a 6/0 K/BB ratio and is the victim of a .412 Babip and 57.1 percent strand rate. Luckily for Osuna, the Jays don't have a lock down setup man behind him as the next options in line would be Jason Grilli or Joe Biagini. Osuna's fantastic prior two seasons should provide him with a decent leash, but he needs to start tossing some scoreless inning and converting saves pretty quickly before that leash evaporates. I'm still an Osuna fan, but after blowing three of his last four save opportunities to end last season combined with his issues this year, I'm a bit more wary that I was entering the season. If you want to speculate on continued struggles or maybe you think Osuna is still dealing with a neck issue, I suppose I would toss a bid on Grilli and then hold my breath every time he entered the game as his high walk rate freaks me out.

Series of the Weekend

Cubs at Red Sox This series is a pretty easy pick as the Cubs visit Fenway Park for a marquee matchup. The Red Sox offense has surprisingly struggled to start the season, ranking 13th in the American League in runs, but they also suffered from a flu that ran through their locker room and caused a lot of missed games from their star players. In even more of a shocker, they only have 11 homers as a team, which is good for dead last in all of baseball. The Sox offense will try and get on track against the champs this weekend, but it won't be easy on paper, as they will face Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks. Hopefully the Red Sox will be careful not to homer off Lackey as he apparently believes anyone who homers off him might be using PEDs.

The Cubs enter the weekend series with a 12-9 record, but they have not really been firing on all cylinders on offense yet either. While Anthony Rizzo has five homers to lead the team, Kris Bryant has only managed two round trippers (he does have eight doubles) and both Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber enter the weekend with batting averages under .220. They do catch a break as they manage to miss both Chris Sale and reigning Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello and will get to take their hacks against the back end of the Red Sox rotation. The Cubs in Fenway has a special feel to it, and I look forward to watching these two historic franchises battle all weekend.