This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks for
Friday, June 21
Summer has officially begun! Lets stay cool and try to make some money!
MLB fans: Get in on the action with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
On June 12, a Mets team sitting at 28-37 and 13th best in the 15-team National League invited Grimace to throw out the first pitch. And of course, the losing stopped, as happens when oversized purple characters try their hands at sports. Your move Cubs, I am sure Barney would love Wrigley Field. Grimace even has his own entry music now.
Now as fun as this story has become for us Mets fans, there are more tangible reasons for the team's recent success. The Mets better play actually began May 30, which I totally take credit for since my son went to the Mets-DBacks game that night. New York had lost eight of nine heading into it, and now are on a 12-5 run. The bats have come alive, with the Mets triple slashing .291/.357/.490 since then, all at least top two in MLB, with a sparkling 144 wRC+ that easily paces the league.
J.D. Martinez looked like an obvious trade target a few weeks ago. Now he leads a team firmly in the enormous glob fighting for likely two NL Wild Card slots. He has hit .299/.420/.612 over this stretch, with five homers and 16 RBI in 82 PA. Francisco Lindor (.324/.395/.577) and Pete Alonso (.278/.358/.542) have also gotten it going since the winning started.
Jose Quintana will pitch today, and he looked excellent in his last outing, tossing six innings of one-run ball versus the Padres, yielding just two hits and two walks vs six Ks. Unless the aging lefty has discovered something, it was more likely a one-off great game than the start of something meaningful as he has slogged through a very mediocre 2-5, 4.98 ERA season. His 16-percent K%, 5.21 xERA and 4.72 SIERA do not suggest much hidden value here. Quintana never lit up the radar gun even in his prime. Now he averages 90.7 MPH on his fastball and tries to get by on an almost evenly distributed four-pitch mix. He got nice results from his slider in half a season last year, but that has not carried over.
The Cubs have the clear edge on the mound as they counter with Shota Imanaga. The nearly 31-year-old rookie has shoved since coming overseas after an excellent run in the NPB, checking in with a 7-1 record, 1.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP thus far. He has had literally one bad outing, giving up seven runs in 4.1 IP in Milwaukee, while otherwise not giving up more than two earned runs in any of his other 12 starts, Shota has a 25.8-percent K% versus a microscopic 3.6-percent BB%. The one potential warning flag is that he gives up a high 48.6-percent FB% that has not proven problematic thus far with just a 6.8-percent HR/FB%. Pitchers have limited control over HR/FB%. For reference, the league as a whole sits at 10.9-percent and the Cubs at home are at 10.5 percent. With the heat and wind coming to Wrigley for summer, Shota could have greater challenges.
Cubs bats have underwhelmed this season, to the tune of a .230 team batting average and 96 wRC+. Michael Busch is their best hitter by wOBA, but he will likely sit versus the lefty Quintana. Switch-hitting Ian Happ has gotten hot lately, but on the year his .238/.345/.419 line with nine homers in 290 PA does not scream major threat. Christopher Morel does have pop with 13 homers, and has reduced his K rate from 31 percent last season to 22 percent in 2024, but still hits just .197. Statcast does peg him at .255 xBA, so perhaps he will regress upward over time.
The Pick
F5 Over 4.5 (-105)
Half unit on Mets ML +135 (Caesars)
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
I generally like taking the stronger team on obvious pitching mismatches on the theory that the odds overcompensate. The Mets have a clearly superior bullpen with a 3.58 ERA versus 4.55 for the Cubs, and they are certainly outplaying the Cubs lately. But it's tough to make the case that the Mets are actually the better team. So I will go just a half unit on the full-game moneyline.
I prefer the Over, and will go with the F5. The Mets have hit lefties well all season, with a 118 wRC+ that ranks sixth in the league, and have really cashed Overs well with a 14-7 record and 26.4-percent ROI against southpaw starters on the F5 line as per VSiN.
Stay up to date on the best MLB picks and props every day of the season using RotoWire's props tool. Looking to sign up at a new sportsbook? There are thousands of dollars in bonus bets up for grabs when you take advantage of the best sportsbook promo codes available on the best sports betting apps.
