Mound Musings: When Things Go Horribly Wrong

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Updated on May 17, 2018 5:05PM EST

It's May, and by now some fantasy owners are probably growing frustrated with pitchers who are off to a rocky start. If you've played fantasy baseball for any length of time, you've been here. You draft a pitcher who enters the season with pretty lofty expectations. You're excited. You look up and down your new roster as Opening Day approaches, and you see a title in your future. Six weeks later, you look at the smoldering roster sheet and wonder, what happened? A couple of your "best" pitchers have been repeatedly battered, and you're buried in the standings across a few pitching categories. Trade them? Cut them? There are newcomers out there sprinkling stardust in your eyes! Let's step back and take a deep breath. What you've seen may not be what you'll get over time. Let's take a look at why some of these guys just don't make it happen, and whether it's likely to be short term or if the nightmare will last over the long haul.

Pitchers are human. Really. They are.

That might be good or it might be bad, but it is a fact. And, in most cases, it really depends on your perspective. You have to always keep it in mind. Being human, those guys out there on the mound will perform differently from day to day, and in some cases even from inning to inning.

Pitching isn't easy. In fact, it's very difficult thing to do; especially at the highest level of the

Pitchers are human. Really. They are.

Pitching isn't easy. In fact, it's very difficult thing to do; especially at the highest level of the sport. Here's a little exercise for you. Take a can of spray paint, and paint a box on your garage door. Step 60-feet-six inches back, and throw a ball at that box. Throw your first toss at the bottom line of the box, the next one at the top line, followed by one at the right-hand line and then one at the left. Did you hit the targeted line with all four throws? Was the ball travelling more than 90 mph with each toss? If the answer is yes, you really should plan to attend the next MLB tryout in your area. However, chances are, the answer wasn't yes, and we didn't even discuss all of the things that could impact whether you could hit those targets every five days for weeks, months or even years at a time. Let's do that now. Take these scenarios into consideration:

The repeatable pitching motion – Here is the first "human" factor. Every pitcher strives to develop and maintain a "repeatable" pitching motion. That is, a delivery that looks the same, regardless of the pitch being thrown and with the ball departing the hand in the same place. The objective is to make it as difficult as possible for the hitter to quickly recognize the type of pitch before it arrives into the hitting zone. A funky delivery can significantly increase the deceptive nature of a pitcher's offerings, but there is a tradeoff. That erratic motion is generally much more difficult to repeat, leading to an inability to command pitches. And, hitters usually catch on to the deceptive motion, and the hit parade begins. Pitchers with ordinary stuff and deceptive pitching motions are notorious for looking good in their first few starts before imploding as batters catch on.
A pain in the neck – Another "human" factor, overall health is frequently a hard to diagnose factor in consistent performance. Every morning you wake up feeling somewhere between great and awful. Maybe you pulled a muscle or you might have just slept wrong on an uncomfortable pillow causing a stiff neck. MLB pitchers are no different, and any nagging aches and pains can impact their performance (without warning) and without a trip to the disabled list. Further, the minor injuries don't always have anything to do with the pitcher's arm. Core body muscle strains, and perhaps more importantly, injuries to the legs can and do have a negative impact. Monitor your guy's ongoing health. Frequent reports of nagging minor aches and pains, even if quietly whispered, will likely mean a lot of inconsistency. They can't be totally avoided, but I wouldn't necessarily panic if a generally consistent performer struggles occasionally.
It's the little things – Sometimes it can be hard to clearly identify flaws (or simply temporary lapses) in mechanics, because the line between right and wrong is often very fine. For example, a pitcher might gradually start rushing (speeding up) his motion. This can cause his landing foot to touch down early, and that can result in, among other things, reduced velocity, opening up, which often causes the pitch to stay up in the zone or sail (lack of command), and/or overthrowing or failing to stay on top of the ball (reduced rotation so less movement or the pitch straightening out). A slight over-compensation could result in throwing too much across the body and/or spiking the pitches, which are usually easy takes for the hitter. All those things can result from such small variation in the normal delivery. These issues are magnified for pitchers lacking the raw power to frequently get away with mistakes. Have you ever tried to define the difference between two pitchers with apparently similar skill sets, with one being an ace and the other being a fantasy time bomb? The biggest difference is often how long it takes the pitcher to get back in sync when things go astray. The ace can typically self-correct flaws from batter to batter or even pitch to pitch, while the time bomb might struggle for multiple starts trying to make the necessary corrections.
The adjustment bureau – On the mound (and in the batter's box) baseball is a never-ending series of adjustments. Pitchers find holes in a hitter's swing and exploit them until the hitter adjusts and compensates for the holes. Hitters identify a pitcher's tendencies in specific situations or pick up on something in his delivery, which helps predict what pitch is coming or where it might be located. The adjustment game goes on and on, with the most successful pitchers always seeming to be one step ahead. This often relates to pitch sequencing. The pitcher needs to be as unpredictable as possible, changing location, in and out, and preferably also up and down, while mixing in an assortment of pitches at different speeds. This is why three or four reliable pitches are nearly mandatory. If a hitter is relatively sure a pitcher will throw a certain pitch in a given situation, he will ignore everything else and the advantage swings in his favor.
One more thing to consider – I won't spend a lot of time here because this observation is nearly impossible to quantify. I personally steer clear of pitchers who I feel lack a certain amount of composure or "mound demeanor" when plying their trade. When things get tough, some pitchers always seem to step up while others almost always seem to unravel. Maybe it's a couple of bloop hits, perhaps there is a misplay in the field behind him, or it could be a perceived missed strike call by an umpire, but the end result is somewhere between a big inning and a total meltdown. It can manifest itself in the pitcher throwing a meatball in a critical two-strike count, or maybe something as vague as suspect body language. I am not in the pitcher's head, so I can't necessarily define it, but some pitchers do thrive in challenging scenarios, and I want those guys in my rotation.
Patience, grasshopper – I'll close with a recommendation. The objective here was to help you identify or explain some things that can contribute to a handful of poor outings, and to perhaps help you decide whether to exercise patience or pull the chute on the pitcher in question. I look at my rosters every day, looking to see if I can upgrade. However, I'm not one to "churn" my roster. The pitchers there are there because I felt they could contribute, and unless I see something to change that opinion, I generally take a breath, and wait for the bad stretch to fade from memory rather than putting that contribution on another roster.

Let's take a look at some pitchers who are often pursued by fantasy team owners, but for various reasons, have become arms I tend to avoid. These aren't the usual suspects. These are quality arms, but.… Keep in mind, the names are not static. Occasionally I'll change my mind (almost always because the pitcher develops further and/or matures), and a pitcher previously on this list will actually become a target. Conversely, I do sometimes add a guy I thought had the tools but failed to develop.

A sampling of my "don't draft" rotation (in no special order):

Dylan Bundy (Orioles) – On May 8, Bundy coughed up seven runs, including four home runs (against a light-hitting Royals lineup), without recording an out. Five days later, he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits (against a light-hitting Rays lineup). With him it's always, "Do ya feel lucky?"
Julio Teheran (Braves) – Like most of the pitchers who might appear on this list, Teheran has a pretty good arm and sometimes flashes stuff that encourages fantasy owners to pursue him on draft day. Unfortunately, he never seems to provide a return on investment. Maybe he needs a change of scenery?
Chris Archer (Rays) – You have to love the strikeout potential that comes with Archer, but he's one who can get out of sync and overthrow for stretches. When things straighten out, he can be very hittable and he doesn't usually adjust quickly. The Rays do well with arms, but they haven't solved him yet.
Zack Godley (Diamondbacks) – Godley has an over the top delivery that helps with deception, but that can also make it more difficult to lock in a release point. He actually posts respectable numbers, but his stuff is good, not great, and that can lead to rocky outings when his command isn't spot on.
Lance Lynn (Twins) – Lynn has a history of starting off well but then wearing down as the season progresses. I have suspected conditioning issues, as his pitches tend to drift up in the zone later in the season. This year he has been brutal from go, so he better hope there isn't a drop off in performance.