Mound Musings: The 2023 First Year Player Draft Edition

Draft day always brings an infusion of new, exciting, arms into professional baseball, and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. I'm not crazy about having Draft Day and the Future's Game on the same weekend. I'd prefer to spread the fun out across multiple days. However, as usual, I settled in the other night with iced tea and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers I wanted to check in on. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night, right? Obviously, this is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but some of the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you might think. Maybe the biggest obstacle to assessing pitchers in this draft was/is that ever looming injury factor. It seems like all the top college arms just underwent Tommy John surgery.

Some general observations from Draft Day 

I thought this draft was much deeper with regard position players and high school arms, but I do see a potential standout generational talent in this year's draft, there are a few college arms, two in particular, who I consider very interesting. High school arms, even the really good ones, have always been considered riskier, and I think that continues to be a factor. There are injury risks, and the challenge of accurately predicting the ultimate ceiling of a younger pitcher, so many teams focus on the top college prospects unless they feel they can compete right now. Besides, with an increasingly shallow pool of quality pitchers at the MLB level, teams are desperately seeking help on the mound that can that help as soon as possible, and obviously, college arms are closer.

I think, and it's just my opinion, that the current trend in the approach to pitching is now becoming ever more prominent in both the high school and college pitchers arriving on draft day. Everyone looks for velocity with a hard slider often next on the list, so a pitching prospect with a more advanced repertoire often moves that guy higher on my list. Don't get me wrong, I love the big arms too, but a reliable change-up and/or curveball, with some command usually draws my immediate attention. And, perhaps I'm just hoping, but teams *might* be starting to reconsider neglecting the finer points of the pitching profession. I really hope we see actual learning of the art brought back. 

Brad Johnson examines the pitchers in the 2023 draft class, starting with Paul Skenes, who was drafted by the Pirates with the No. 1 overall pick.

Okay, let's take a look at the cream of the 2023 draft class.

Here are a few higher ceiling arms I think you should add to your watch list: 

• Paul Skenes (Pirates – 1st overall) – I remember the last time I saw a pitcher as a game changer, a generational star who could turn a franchise around. It was 2009, and his name was Stephen Strasburg. I think Skenes has that kind of upside. His fastball averages 98 mph and touches 102 mph with movement. So much for his second-best pitch. He has a biting slider that is virtually unhittable when you have to be ready for that fastball. In fact, opposing batters hit an anemic .076 against that slider. His change-up isn't bad, but its still coming around. No word on what the Pirates plan for Skenes. He could pitch high leverage innings out of the bullpen today, but he's an ace starter in the making so I'm guessing some pro seasoning is in order. Oh, he's also a devastating hitter although he didn't swing a bat this year. To top it off, his manager said, he's a better person than pitcher. The Pirates won a grand prize.
• Noble Meyer (Marlins – 10th overall) – I usually try to find college pitchers to put at the top of the draft class watch list under the assumption they are likely to be closer to the majors and, being older, they are easier to project with regard to ceiling, but I was prepared to make an exception with Meyer. He looked great at Jesuit High School in Oregon, and the best is yet to come. You.ve heard me say this before – he pitches older. Miami has built a reputation on developing young pitchers and he's next in line. He already has an excellent slider, and his fastball is coming as he matures, while his off-speed stuff is, not surprisingly, a work in progress. The Marlins are unlikely to rush him, but I don't think they will need too. He has fast-track written all over him. I'm guessing fulltime in 2025.
• Rhett Lowder (Reds – 7th overall) – My guess is Lowder is the first pitcher from this class to reach the majors. The ACC pitcher of the year in both 2022 and 2023 while at Wake Forest, his best pitch is his change-up, with a solid fastball that sinks, and a sweeping slider. Perhaps most importantly, he throws them all for strikes, and mixes them all in, making him unpredictable. Lowder has a very clean, repeatable delivery that is a huge plus. His new home park isn't exactly pitcher-friendly, but he has the repertoire to generate weaker contact, and the Reds are doing a pretty good job of bringing young pitchers along. He's not a truly dominating type, but there aren't any real holes in his game.
• Hurston Waldrep (Braves – 24th overall) – Now we go from nearly ready arms to a more-raw, work in progress. However, where better for a pitcher like that to land but Atlanta? Waldrep was on quite a roll this spring before getting spanked by LSU in his final college start. Hey, a lot of pitchers know the words to that song. He has a solid fastball in the mid-90's that can approach triple digits, and his secondary offerings all flash plus potential, but he sometimes struggles to find the strike zone. His violent motion makes consistency a challenge, but pro coaching can very possibly smooth that out. If he can smooth out those rough edges, he could be a potentially useful mid-rotation starter.
• Chase Dollander (Rockies – 9th overall) – Here's another college arm with a pretty good skillset, but Dollander is going to an organization that can make it difficult to succeed. That said, there is one thing I think makes it at least possible to handle pitching half of your starts in Coors Field, and he might have that. In the past, he displayed pretty good command of a solid arsenal featuring a high 90's fastball and a crisp slider. That command fell off this year, especially with the slider, but we know it could return. Going 9th overall in a draft this deep says a great deal about the potential they see in him. It won't be easy, but bravehearted fantasy owners might still consider him.

There were a few other pitchers worth monitoring – like Thomas White (35th overall to the Marlins), who was the first southpaw pitcher to go, Ty Floyd (38th overall to the Reds), who surprised me a bit going that late. He was certainly impressive in the College World Series. Charlee Soto (34th overall to the Twins), and Josh Knoth (33rd overall to the Brewers), who is raw but has a pretty high ceiling.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I suppose it shouldn't be too surprising, but Seattle has announced that their latest mound contributor, Bryan Woo, will be shut down prior to the end of the 2023 season. Trouble is, we don't really know when. I own Woo on a few of my teams, and have really liked his early innings. Guess I'll look forward to 2024.
• It seems the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg is now considered unlikely to return this season. He has made just eight starts in four years, and "severe nerve damage" has him shut down indefinitely. He was once my draft day darling, but the 34-year-old might be nearing an end to a magnificent career.
• Brayan Bello has demonstrated growth and development as he gains more experience with the Red Sox. He isn't punching out a lot of hitters, but he is providing innings, and has allowed more than two runs in an outing just once since late April. He is clearly showing maturity as he settles in.
• Quietly doing his thing, San Diego's Joe Musgrove posted an interesting line in his last pre-break start. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing just three hits, but he also hit four batters. Okay, he likes to pitch inside. I have watched parts of a few starts and he is getting right as the season wears on.
• Shohei Ohtani is a better pitcher than hitter. There, I said it. If he pitched exclusively, he would be the best pitcher in the game today (he's close as it is). He opted not to pitch in the All-Star game, but his fantasy owners can rejoice as that means he will be able to start the team's first game following the break.

Endgame Odyssey:

The definition of a great closer is that guy who allows you to change the channel as soon as he enters the game. Its over. I find that's how I handle Josh Hader entering a game again. Another guy who is entering that territory is Cincinnati's Alexis Diaz, but there might be a minor change in their bullpen pecking order. Lucas Sims is healthy (at least for now) and he is now serving as the primary caddy for Diaz. Drey Jameson was pitching so well in the Arizona pen that there was talk of him moving back into the rotation. Now, following an elbow injury, there is concern over whether he will return to the mound this year. The Phillies lost Jose Alvarado to an elbow injury, but in case you haven't been watching, Craig Kimbrel has been on a role, having not allowed a run over the last month (12 appearances). Could Daniel Bard again be a ninth inning option in Colorado? I think Justin Lawrence is deservedly the first choice, but Bard, who sometimes struggles to find the strike zone, could be seeing more late inning work.

I was a bit disappointed in this year's Futures Game as none of the pitchers is currently on my top kid's list. With so many top kids up already, the available arms were fairly scarce, but there were a couple to watch. We'll look at them next week.