Mound Musings: See You in September

Are you heading into the fantasy season's final month with your sights set on a league title? This is a tricky time because some MLB teams will back off on the innings pitched for the key arms they want fresh for the playoffs, while other teams, especially those out of the playoff picture will want to see what they have coming into next season. 

These guys are a mix of arms that could help now, or they might be deserving of your attention next spring. Some are expected to return from the injured list (there may also be a few young arms). Let's briefly see who might be worth a look during the season's final month:

Mike Soroka (Braves) – We haven't seen him on the Braves' mound since August 3, 2020, and I think that is long enough to wait. At least I hope it's about to change. He ruptured his Achilles tendon, had surgery to repair it, and then apparently had a second surgery to repair the repair. He is on a rehab assignment having made two appearances with encouraging, albeit somewhat mixed, results. If all goes well, he should be back in a couple weeks, but be warned, rust is almost a guarantee. Helping the Braves (and a fantasy team) would be a bonus, but like most of those listed below, what we really want to see is a healthy pitcher who could be a significant contributor in 2023.

Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) – I have Flaherty ranked as an ace when healthy, but that "healthy" tag has been hard to pin down. He pitched 196 "ace" innings in 2019, but it's been an IL train ride since. He did make three starts in June, but things clearly were not right (a 5.63 ERA over just eight innings) and he was back on the IL again, this time with a shoulder strain. Initially there was no timetable for a return, then it was reported he might miss the rest of 2022. However, all that changed, and he went out on a rehab assignment, where he has generally looked very sharp. There was a chance the Cardinals could use him out of the pen, but his pitch counts in his three rehab appearances suggest he is bound for the stretch run rotation. Rust? Quite possibly. But I was able to grab him off the waiver wire, and I plan to roll the dice right away.

Kenta Maeda (Twins) – This is pretty much a SOP scenario. Maeda was outstanding in 2020, his first year with the Twins (6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP and 80 strikeouts over just 66 innings), but he had mixed results over 21 2021 starts while often appearing to labor. He went on the IL in August and underwent Tommy John surgery with a bit of a twist as they inserted a brace for the repaired elbow in hopes of reducing his recovery time. Now a year later, Maeda has been throwing bullpens, is expected to face hitters next week and hopes to make it back sometime in September. He probably won't be built up enough to start if he does, but seeing him on the mound out of the bullpen to assess his progress will still be helpful.

Tyler Glasnow (Rays) – Glasnow was on fire in 2021 with a 2.66 ERA and 123 strikeouts in just 88 innings before the infamous slippery ball judgement. Two starts later, he was on the IL and destined for Tommy John surgery. A major spinner, he was quite outspoken about the banning of sticky stuff, even claiming it contributed to his injury. He is slightly behind Maeda, so a September return will undoubtedly be bullpen (or maybe opener) work. Has he been able to adjust to less grip on the ball? That is what we will hope to determine when he makes his return to the mound.

MacKenzie Gore (Nationals) – Gore resided at the top of my kid's list for a couple of years before graduating this season. Early in 2022 he really turned heads, compiling a 2.50 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP through 13 starts. Then some arm issues crept up, and his performance fell off. He went on the IL with an elbow strain, but it didn't require surgery. Then he was a big part of the trade that brought Juan Soto to San Diego. He is expected to make his Nationals debut next month, and I'll be looking for the same kind of stuff he was dealing with the first couple months of this season. I acquired him in the only league in which I didn't already own him during the struggles. Crossing my fingers.

Danny Duffy (Dodgers) – Duffy remade himself in 2021. Different pitch sequencing baffled hitters, A modified motion and slightly lower arm slot was creating slightly more velocity and noticeably more movement. It was working. Then he went on the IL in mid-July with a forearm strain. Yet, knowing he was hurt, the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. Huh? Presumably the Dodgers saw him as a valuable southpaw reliever in the playoffs, but he was still an unusual trade target. Duffy still hasn't thrown a pitch for Los Angeles. Now he is expected back sometime next month, although it is again expected to be in a bullpen role, perhaps for the playoffs. For us fantasy aficionados, our inquiring minds want to know what to expect when he goes back into the starting rotation. Maybe he will give us a hint this September.

Clay Holmes (Yankees) – It's not just starting pitchers we will be looking for in September. There will be a few relievers to check out. Holmes surprised everyone by settling in as the closer for a red-hot Yankees team that just won and won and won. He was dominant, but then he went through some struggles and eventually landed on the IL with a balky back. I'm not sure which came first, the bad or the back, but the team has struggled to find an alternative. Aroldis Chapman has looked good at times, but he's inconsistent. They also named recently acquired Scott Effross as a possibility, but he's not the answer (and he has joined Holmes on the IL). The Yankees need Holmes to bounce back if they want to cap off this season with a championship.

Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles) – Even though we are seeing many top pitching prospects debuting throughout the year, there are still some who will make their first appearance in September. After Gore graduated from the kid's list, Rodriquez took over the top spot. He dominated Triple-A Norfolk (5-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 80 strikeouts in 56 innings), and a promotion to Baltimore appeared imminent before he was sidelined with a lat strain. He's rehabbing now, and a promotion could happen in mid-September. He has eye-popping stuff and has nothing left to prove in the minors. You need to see this guy, as he is a genuine top-of-the-rotation talent.

Cade Cavalli (Nationals) – There hasn't been any official word on Cavalli getting the call, but I think he has earned it. He has always had the stuff, but his command was spotty and that held him back. However, about mid-season things started clicking and he has steadily improved the past couple months. He has the full package with a four-seamer that can touch triple digits, a nasty slider, a curve and change-up. Nats fans are dreaming of a rotation lead by Gore and Cavalli. This just in: Cavalli being called up to start this week.

Eury Perez (Marlins) – He might be a bit of a long shot for a call-up as the 6-8 righty is just 19-years-old and has spent the year at Double-A Pensacola. Additionally, he has spent some time on the IL with arm fatigue, so the typically conservative Marlins may opt to wait a little longer for his debut. He uses his height and extension to make his electric fastball seem even faster. His secondary pitches are developing, too. Just keep the name in mind and if you see him pop up as the probable starter make sure to tune in.

There are a few others approaching a return to major league mounds. Luis Severino (Yankees) might be the highest profile, but he, like others, is running out of time to build arm strength. He might work out of the bullpen. The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw finds himself in a similar situation. Does he have enough time, or will he also provide bullpen help into the playoffs? Right now, it looks like he'll be in the rotation. Nate Pearson (Blue Jays) could return to Toronto at some point, but even if his shoulder is fully healed, his performance has declined, and he has some confidence building to do.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Dodgers thought they had lost Walker Buehler for the remainder of this season, but it turns out he has undergone a second Tommy John surgery and will now be out for all (or at least most) of 2023. He has long been one of my favorite pitchers, and losing him for another year is a huge disappointment.
• The White Sox Michael Kopech left his last start after facing just four hitters and has been placed on the IL with a knee strain. Reports are he will hopefully be able to return after the minimum 15 days, but that makes it a tough call for fantasy owners. If there is a viable option out there, I think I make a move.
• Eventually the Mets are going to have their very formidable rotation healthy and pitching. Taijuan Walker returned from the IL and looked solid against the Yankees last time out. Hopefully he's fully healthy now and ready to plug and play in your fantasy rotation as they sprint to the playoffs.  
• I think it's time to bump Toronto's Ross Stripling up a notch on the food chain. I watched his last start as he returned from a brief stay on the IL due to a minor hip problem, and he checked all the boxes. He doesn't have the raw stuff to qualify as an ace, but he uses what he has and pitches smart. That works.
• It occurs to me I haven't said enough about Arizona's Zac Gallen. He has quietly put together an exceptional season when you look at compiling nine wins against just two losses while pitching for a mediocre team. He throws strikes and misses bats often enough to be considered a top-of-the-rotation fantasy starter.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Padres have relieved Josh Hader of his closing duties and temporarily replaced him with a committee including Luis Garcia and Robert Suarez. You have to believe Hader will get everything back in sync. I think the Red Sox will eventually try to ease Matt Barnes back into the closer gig – he looked so good when healthy. You can add Shawn Armstrong to the growing list of relievers who have saved games for the Rays this year (he makes 10). He doesn't in any way profile as a closer, so I wouldn't rush to the waiver wire to pick him up. I think Kevin Cash just loves to make fantasy players crazy. It looked like the Phillies had finally decided Seranthony Dominguez was their best option for the ninth inning, and he promptly hit the IL with a triceps strain. With Corey Knebel out of the picture, David Robertson likely becomes the primary closer until Dominguez returns early next month.