Mound Musings: NL West Draft Day Targets

And, down the stretch we come! Last week we looked at the AL Central, and this week and next, I'll continue to offer names for your consideration, covering the NL West this week, and the AL West next. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. Let's look at the:

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks – Things are definitely getting interesting in the desert. Will the humidor turn a hitter's haven into a pitcher's paradise? The team also is saying they'll make some lineup changes that should improve their defense, too. The Diamondbacks have recently featured an ace in Zack Greinke, but Robbie Ray is threatening to make that a pair of aces. In fact, I've been a little skeptical of Greinke, and his on and off velocity this spring has me more worried than usual, so given the choice of either, I'd take Ray and his very appealing strikeout rate. Both will probably carry premium price tags on draft day. Like the first two, I think Patrick Corbin will benefit from a less lively ball, and pitching in front of a team that features Nick Ahmed at shortstop, allowing Ketel Marte to move to second, and without J.D. Martinez wearing a glove in the outfield. Corbin was much improved in the second half last year, and I expect that trend to continue. Some days Taijuan Walker looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, on other days he looks like a sandlot hurler. The light could come on for him at any time, but I think I'll stay away until I see some extended consistency. Next, Zack Godley takes the fifth spot and also should benefit from the pitcher-friendly environment, at least until top rookie Jon Duplantier is ready. They also have the oft-injured Kris Medlen and will get Shelby Miller back a couple of months into the season, but I'd consider them both wildcards.

Fernando Rodney has moved on to Minnesota, which opens the door for prolific converted starter Archie Bradley. He's well-suited to the bullpen and could actually benefit from a more liberal usage pattern if the Snakes would possibly entertain giving Japanese-import Yoshihisa Hirano a shot at the gig. Righty Brad Boxberger and lefty Andrew Chafin should see a lot of set-up work along with Randall Delgado, but I think youngsters Jimmie Sherfy and Silvino Bracho also could work their way into the mix in what could be a very deep bullpen.

Recapping the Diamondbacks:

The arm to own:Patrick Corbin
He's not for me:Zack Greinke
Best of the bullpen:Archie Bradley but monitor Yoshihisa Hirano

Colorado Rockies – Unlike Arizona, where some changes could boost pitcher values this year, Coors Field is still Coors Field, and pitchers who spend half their time there are still fantasy risks. Jon Gray clearly is the top arm in the stable. In another venue he could be quite attractive, but hurling in Colorado will be at least semi-problematic even though his ERA was better in home starts than on the road. With a lively arm, he's worth considering, but he moves back a couple spots in a fantasy rotation. I suppose Tyler Anderson is marginally the No. 2, but his WHIP (1.33 last year) will need to improve. Extra baserunners in that park is what nightmares are made of. German Marquez is the top candidate for the next spot. He has more upside than those below him in the food chain and could be useful in formats where an owner can pick and choose matchups. Chad Bettis, if fully healthy, should hold one spot in the rotation on Opening Day, but he pitched just 46 innings last season, and the overall results weren't fantasy appealing. He's more of a finesse pitcher, and that's a rough way to make a living in Colorado. Things get a bit more interesting with the last spot. Jeff Hoffman has the edge in upside, but he also has shoulder issues that put the start of his season in jeopardy. That leaves Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland. I like the mound presence of Freeland, but Senzatela has the better stuff so he gets the lukewarm nod.

Since switching from starting to relieving, Wade Davis has found fantasy relevance. He'll get the bulk of the save chances, but there's one red flag. Last year his BB/9 was a poor 4.30, the highest of his career. That many walks can be problematic anywhere, but even more so in this venue. He has a qualified set-up man with closing experience in lefty Jake McGee, who is joined by set-up specialist and newcomer Brian Shaw, and veteran holdovers Adam Ottavino and Mike Dunn, who will both hope to get back on track after struggling for much of 2017.

Recapping the Rockies:

The arm to own: Jon Gray if the Coors discount is deep enough
He's not for me: Chad Bettis
Best of the bullpen: Wade Davis

Los Angeles Dodgers – Dodgers' baseball always seems to mean quality pitching, and this year is no different. Clayton Kershaw remains at the top of fantasy rotation draft boards, and he'll likely be the first starter drafted or again carry the highest price tag in auctions. The only concern would be lingering back issues that have taken him off the field, albeit briefly, the past couple of seasons, but when he's pitching, he defines ace. They aren't Kershaws – okay, who is – but Rich Hill and Alex Wood certainly can contribute to a productive fantasy rotation. I love Hill's curveball (hitters aren't so fond of it), but at age 38, you have to be concerned about a conservative workload. Wood is a steady presence, too, but also fares better with a lighter innings load. The deep Dodgers' mound corps affords them that luxury .There's one starter who does stand out as a quality arm with the ability to pile up innings. I'm high on Kenta Maeda as a guy who can get deeper into games, and I think he's a good mid-rotation target in most fantasy formats. After missing most of the previous two years, Hyun-Jin Ryu made his return in 2017 and provided reasonably effective innings. He's just a notch behind the others. And, if anyone needs a break, the team owns a young pitcher who's been shooting up my watch list. Walker Buehler would be a rotation fixture for many teams, and it's only a matter of time before he claims that designation in Los Angeles, although they would like to delay his arbitration clock. Want more? Okay, lefty Julio Urias would be included in "future staff ace" discussions, but he's recovering from shoulder surgery and isn't expected back until August. Dynasty owners, take note.

Several years ago, I predicted Kenley Jansen would be the best closer in the game. He's been doing his best to make me look like a prophet ever since. Everybody knows his cutter is coming with mid-90s velocity, but it hasn't helped anyone hit it. Pure nasty dominance, with bundles of strikeouts, are always on the table with Jansen. Getting to Jansen is sometimes a little more challenging. If not in the rotation, Buehler is a huge boost in bridging the gap, while Josh Fields and Pedro Baez are generally competent. From the left side, newcomer Scott Alexander, Tony Cingrani and Adam Liberatore provide plenty of balance. This is a unit full of useful specialists.

Recapping the Dodgers:

The arm to own:Kenta Maeda
He's not for me:Hyun-Jin Ryu
Best of the bullpen:Kenley Jansen

San Diego Padres – For the most part, the Padres appear to be laying the groundwork for a nice rotation at some point in the future. Today (it could easily change tomorrow), Clayton Richard and Bryan Mitchell are at the top of the food chain. Richard is best suited to a swingman role, and Mitchell, who is perhaps a somewhat better option than Richard, isn't a pitcher to build around. Pitching in Petco Park should help him, but he needs better secondary stuff and command to take the next step. Regular readers will know that my focus on the Friars staff is centered on Dinelson Lamet. He's not without risk – he too needs better command and more consistent off-speed stuff, however, I see progress, and that's what matters. If you're set on taking a flyer on any other Padres pitcher, consider Luis Perdomo. He's even further from a sure thing, but there's some upside there. Tyson Ross and Matt Strahm are the primary candidates for the last spot, but I'd prefer to wait for the kids. If you're looking for that light at the end of the tunnel, it's not all darkness and sorrow. Their kids MacKenzie Gore, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon and Cal Quantrill are high quality prospects. Other than perhaps Quantrill (and he's not a sure thing), none of these guys is likely to see San Diego this season, but I'd collect some of them in dynasty leagues.

A couple years ago, the Padres claimed Brad Hand on waivers from Miami. They converted him to the bullpen, and his stock began to rise. Last year, in midseason, he moved into the closer's role, and his value went even higher. The team signed him to an extension, but there has also been on and off talk of a trade. That talk could intensify, and I don't really see him as a closer long term if he moves on. If it should happen, my top pick for a replacement probably would be Phil Maton, although Kirby Yates would be in the consideration set, too. The perpetually injured Carter Capps also would be a candidate if he could get and stay healthy (a very big if), but other bullpen worker bees like Kazuhisa Makita (he's fun to watch with his 50 mph arsenal) and Buddy Baumann do not profile as end gamers.

Recapping the Padres:

The arm to own:Dinelson Lamet
He's not for me:Clayton Richard
Best of the bullpen:Brad Hand

San Francisco Giants – It was not a pretty 2017 for the Giants, and their rotation arms were intricately involved. Staff ace Madison Bumgarner suffered non-baseball shoulder and rib injuries that cost him half the season and may have slightly tarnished the innings he did contribute. Hopefully, he'll be healthy and able to contribute his normal 200-plus frames this year. I'm betting he can. Johnny Cueto had blister issues and turned in the worst season he has posted in 10 years. Typically a model of consistency, he can provide owners with a solid ERA and WHIP with just under a strikeout per inning when he's on his game, but I'm a little concerned he may be slipping. He should come at a significant discount and may be worth a flyer, but have a contingency plan in place. Next up is Jeff Samardzija. I've always liked his stuff, and last year was no exception, but the team's season to forget caught up with him, too. He'd look overwhelming for a few innings, walk a guy, give up a scratch hit, and then miss with a pitch only to watch it splash down. It happened again and again. I'm going to give him a mulligan and look for much better this season. Chris Stratton figures to inherit the fourth slot after splitting time between the Giants and Triple-A Sacramento in 2017. He has pretty pedestrian stuff, but could be an option in NL-only or very deep leagues. The only real question mark resides in the fifth starter slot. Southpaw Ty Blach probably will get the first crack, but he doesn't miss many bats and allows too much hard contact. At some point, expect the Giants to try their top pitching prospects, Tyler Beede and/or lefty Andrew Suarez. Beede is a marginally better prospect, but neither figures to be an impact arm in fantasy.

The bullpen wasn't immune to the season of discontent either. When they brought in Mark Melancon, who had averaged 49 saves a year over the previous two seasons, the future looked good. It didn't turn out as planned. Melancon suffered from forearm and elbow problems all year before having offseason surgery to correct the problem. He is reportedly 100 percent now, and they still have both Hunter Strickland and Derek Law, plus a capable newcomer in lefty Tony Watson – a significant addition. Sam Dyson remains part of the pen, albeit a bit of a weak link in my mind, and they hope to get southpaw Will Smith back in May. It's all about Melancon. If he's ready to go, this could actually be a strength of the team.

Recapping the Giants:

The arm to own:Jeff Samardzija (or Madison Bumgarner if the price is right)
He's not for me:Ty Blach
Best of the bullpen:Mark Melancon

Next week we'll wrap up our staff previews with a look at the AL West.