This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
When pitchers and catchers report, baseball season officially begins! That means we need to start looking at likely Opening Day pitching staffs to determine some draft day targets. It will be just a little different this year as there are still several impact pitchers available on the free agent market, something previously unheard of this late. We'll cover one division each week, and, hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
National League East
Atlanta Braves – The Braves are building for the future, and while they appear to be headed in a positive direction, I think they're at least a season or two away. Barring any transactions, Julio Teheran again will lead the staff. He has a lot of talent, but he has yet to convince me he can consistently perform at the level of a No. 1 starter. He seems to lose a bit of focus at times, and he can overthrow, which leads to his fastball straightening out, so I'll probably stay away given his likely draft cost. Mike Foltynewicz looks to be next in line, but he also suffers from inconsistency. He's worth a flyer if the price is right. The oft-injured Brandon McCarthy rounds out the top three, before we get into the intriguing youngsters we'll see trying to make a mark. Luiz Gohara has all the tools to be a good one and gets my checkmark as a guy to seriously
When pitchers and catchers report, baseball season officially begins! That means we need to start looking at likely Opening Day pitching staffs to determine some draft day targets. It will be just a little different this year as there are still several impact pitchers available on the free agent market, something previously unheard of this late. We'll cover one division each week, and, hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2018 season. Let's get to it and look at the:
National League East
Atlanta Braves – The Braves are building for the future, and while they appear to be headed in a positive direction, I think they're at least a season or two away. Barring any transactions, Julio Teheran again will lead the staff. He has a lot of talent, but he has yet to convince me he can consistently perform at the level of a No. 1 starter. He seems to lose a bit of focus at times, and he can overthrow, which leads to his fastball straightening out, so I'll probably stay away given his likely draft cost. Mike Foltynewicz looks to be next in line, but he also suffers from inconsistency. He's worth a flyer if the price is right. The oft-injured Brandon McCarthy rounds out the top three, before we get into the intriguing youngsters we'll see trying to make a mark. Luiz Gohara has all the tools to be a good one and gets my checkmark as a guy to seriously consider, while Sean Newcomb rounds out the early-season top five. If healthy, Scott Kazmir could figure into the mix, however, I'm waiting for a couple other kids who are big chips for the future. The Braves have an exceptionally deep talent pool of young arms, and a few are getting close. Mike Soroka is high on my prospect list and should see Atlanta at some point this summer. Kolby Allard also fits here and is worthy of consideration if rosters allow for the stashing of a later arrival.
Taking a quick look at the bullpen, Arodys Vizcaino likely willbreak camp as their closer. He is probably a fairly competent option – as long as he stays healthy and stays close to the strike zone – but he's not a front line end gamer and can be vulnerable to left-handed hitters. Jose Ramirez and Rex Brothers aren't all that appealing, but they are probably the best alternatives on the roster right now.
Recapping the Braves:
The arm to own:Mike Soroka
He's not for me:Brandon McCarthy
Best of the bullpen:Arodys Vizcaino
Miami Marlins – The Marlins are doing some serious restructuring – with most of their recent stars on other rosters heading into 2018. There will probably be seven or eight arms hoping to fill their Opening Day rotation, but none of them profile as top-of-the-rotation fantasy assets. Jose Urena impressed me last season, and I would put him at the top of the list, but you can't afford to pay a big price on draft day. Dan Straily and Wei-Yin Chen – if and when he is fully healthy – are options for the back end of your rotation, but the Marlins may not provide them with a lot of run support. Adam Conley, Odrisamer Despaigne and Dillon Peters probably will compete with Justin Nicolino and promising newcomer Sandy Alcantara (obtained in the Marcell Ozuna deal) for the other spots. Alcantara could be a useful addition as he develops, but I'm not sure he's ready for the show just yet, and he isn't likely to become a No. 1. Consider Urena, if the price is right, but on the whole, this is probably a rotation to avoid.
The Marlins bullpen isn't much stronger than their rotation. They've already announced that Brad Ziegler will open the year as their closer, but that doesn't do much to encourage me. He's not a true closer and probably won't last the year in that role if the Fish can find a trade partner. Kyle Barraclough has had the closer-of-the-future tag for a while, but he hasn't claimed the job yet, and, considering the competition, that's not much of an endorsement. I'm inclined to bypass Barraclough and look to darkhorse Drew Steckenrider as a lukewarm alternative to eventually inherit the gig.
Recapping the Marlins:
The arm to own:Jose Urena
He's not for me: Everyone else
Best of the bullpen:Drew Steckenrider
New York Mets – The Mets are loaded with pitching – as long as they stay healthy. Therein lies the concern for fantasy owners. It starts with Noah Syndergaard, who is arguably the best young arm in the game. His season came to an abrupt end in late April last year (he did actually return to toss three innings in September). He retooled his workout regimen in hopes of staying healthier, but having thrown just 30 innings in 2017, he may not be able to handle a heavy workload. Still, he's as dominant as they come, and I'm all in on him. Jacob deGrom is just one notch behind Thor, but he has his own laundry list of physical woes. Once upon a time, I loved Matt Harvey (even more than deGrom), but he's been damaged goods for a while, too. Given his struggles, he should come at a huge discount, and I'll be tempted to take a huge leap of faith, even with the attached huge risk. Are we seeing a trend here? They could have an almost unbelievable mound corps, or they could be the cast for a M.A.S.H. remake. I'm bit less enthusiastic about Steven Matz (elbow surgery to relieve nerve irritation) and Zack Wheeler (stress fracture, throwing arm) but I could make at least a mild case for either, if healthy. A huge, huge, if. With all those question marks, Julio Lugo figures to see some starts – a rather bland option – while Robert Gsellman and Chris Flexen will see some innings, too. Neither of the latter two offer much appeal for me.
Endgamer Jeurys Familia has proven he can be a very reliable closer (he lead the league with 51 saves in 2016), and he'll return to that job as his primary role in 2018 following some off-field issues last year. If it's all behind him, he's capable, but the Mets have the luxury of owning an experienced solid insurance policy in AJ Ramos. They have a pretty deep pen, but I look for Familia to return to his past level of performance, and hopefully, with a healthy rotation, see a lot of save chances.
Recapping the Mets:
The arm to own:Noah Syndergaard
He's not for me:Zack Wheeler
Best of the bullpen:Jeurys Familia
Philadelphia Phillies – For the most part, the Phillies' rotation is again filled with rather ho-hum arms, which can be moderately effective at times but probably don't have any real head-turning upside. The one exception is certainly Aaron Nola. He's a prototypical workhorse, and those guys are always pretty valuable. Nola isn't quite considered an ace – at least not yet – but he proved last season that he can provide a solid boost to fantasy teams. I was high on him prior to last season, but I'm afraid the 2017 second half stats will inflate his draft price significantly this spring. The lackluster group following Nola to the mound includes Jerad Eickhoff (his mediocre stuff doesn't excite me very much), Vince Velasquez (always something of a roller coaster and he needs to prove he's healthy), plus, possibly, Nick Pivetta, Mark Leiter and Ben Lively (all three are No. 5 starters in MLB at best and unlikely to warrant a spot on any but the deepest fantasy rosters). Another thought might be Jake Thompson, who got battered in limited action last season (his 3.88 ERA was a bit of a smoke screen), but has the basic tools to fare at least a little better if he can do a better job of spotting his pitches. They do have a nice young arm in their system, but Sixto Sanchez is probably a year or more away from helping the Phillies' very thin starting staff. The Phillies are developing some nice, young hitters, but their pitching is lagging behind, making them a potentially attractive landing place for a top-of-the-rotation hurler.
This bullpen isn't really any further ahead of the curve. It appears Hector Neris will get a fulltime shot at closing, but that is as much due to a lack of high-quality depth as it is to his standing in the bullpen pecking order. His skills are perhaps ahead of his actual performance to date in the ninth inning, so there is some reason for optimism. The alternatives, including Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Edubray Ramos and southpaw Adam Morgan (he could be a deep sleeper) may insure that Neris gets a long leash.
Recapping the Phillies:
The arm to own:Aaron Nola
He's not for me:Jerad Eickhoff
Best of the bullpen:Hector Neris
Washington Nationals – Most teams celebrate if they have one true ace. Not the Nationals. They already have co-aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and they have, at times been, mentioned as a possible suitor for free-agent Jake Arrieta. When they're healthy and clicking these guys don't get any better. Scherzer was an absolute beast last year, and Strasburg was just as overwhelming in the second half – perhaps now being back to full health. I believe he'll be a dominant force again going forward. Compared to Scherzer, you may be able to buy him right. Take the chance. They'll be followed by Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark (leaving Arrieta or another big gun out of the equation). Both are competent, and Roark may even qualify as a respectable mid-rotation fantasy starter. Gio did a better job of throwing strikes last season, but I remain skeptical. He has to pitch in the zone to keep his pitch counts down, and deeper into games I look for A.J. Cole and/or Erick Fedde potentially to fill the fifth spot, at least until Joe Ross returns, maybe around midseason. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, so a return date is fluid. If they do add another quality starter, it would just be a case of the rich getting richer.
The Nats had a glaring Achilles heel early last season. The bullpen, handed leads, could not consistently finish it. Enter Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler. Exit the rest of the league. Wins piled up in bunches. All three had closing experience. Doolittle was lights out in the ninth inning, while Madson and Kintzler thrived in setup rolls. Doolittle has a history of being somewhat fragile, but if this group stays healthy, and they get Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley back to full strength, that big rotation will continue to hand off games with confidence.
Recapping the Nationals:
The arm to own:Stephen Strasburg
He's not for me:Gio Gonzalez
Best of the bullpen:Sean Doolittle
Next column, we'll look at the AL East.
