This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Almost every July a top shelf pitcher or two changes teams. There is a considerable amount of cat and mouse as the suitors inquire and then withdraw and watch, but in the end, someone ends up with a major piece for the stretch run. This year, there were at least three or four legitimate aces, and at least that many solid middle-of-the-rotation arms that were in play virtually all week. We discussed several in last week's Musings – those dealt before the article's deadline – and this week, I'll take a look at the trades that came about on Thursday and Friday of last week. Who saw their stock rise, who's stock fell in both rotations and bullpens, and who just landed an opportunity to produce. Let's see how changes shook out:
David Price to Toronto:
Before last week's Musings' deadline, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, and Scott Kazmir moved to new homes. Those names were big enough to make it a huge trading season for pitching. It was just the beginning. The next day the Jays (who had already acquired Troy Tulowitzki) landed Price. Like the three named above, perhaps even more so, Price moves to the top of their rotation, pitching for a team that could be more explosive than any other in recent memory.
Folks, this team is scary. The team is not bad defensively, at least when Justin Smoakplays first base and Kevin Pillar is in the outfield, and Tulowitzki is a big
Almost every July a top shelf pitcher or two changes teams. There is a considerable amount of cat and mouse as the suitors inquire and then withdraw and watch, but in the end, someone ends up with a major piece for the stretch run. This year, there were at least three or four legitimate aces, and at least that many solid middle-of-the-rotation arms that were in play virtually all week. We discussed several in last week's Musings – those dealt before the article's deadline – and this week, I'll take a look at the trades that came about on Thursday and Friday of last week. Who saw their stock rise, who's stock fell in both rotations and bullpens, and who just landed an opportunity to produce. Let's see how changes shook out:
David Price to Toronto:
Before last week's Musings' deadline, Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, and Scott Kazmir moved to new homes. Those names were big enough to make it a huge trading season for pitching. It was just the beginning. The next day the Jays (who had already acquired Troy Tulowitzki) landed Price. Like the three named above, perhaps even more so, Price moves to the top of their rotation, pitching for a team that could be more explosive than any other in recent memory.
Folks, this team is scary. The team is not bad defensively, at least when Justin Smoakplays first base and Kevin Pillar is in the outfield, and Tulowitzki is a big step up at shortstop. Edwin Encarnacion is better off as the designated hitter and they are a little shaky in left field before adding Ben Revere (who adds speed to the offense). With the runs they can put up, Price likely gets the opportunity to pitch deeper into games, even when he is especially sharp that night, and that could mean more wins.
Price was great when he arrived, and in many ways he keeps getting better. He mixes in more variety, including a change-up that has become a major weapon. He'll get plenty of quality innings, should be in a position to benefit from a load of run support, and has the stuff to handle pitching in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. He moves up on my list.
Mat Latos and Alex Wood to Los Angeles (NL):
This pair gives an already strong pitching staff even more depth, and when you are in a playoff race, depth is never deep enough. The Dodgers already have two of the premier starting pitchers in the game with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Now they will add another strong arms in Latos and Wood, who slot in behind the first two, and ahead of the next guys in line, Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger who will look to fill the fifth spot. Their top pitching prospect, Zach Lee, is out of the rotation barring injuries.
Earlier this season, Latos struggled mightily. He eventually went on the disabled list with inflammation in his left knee. At the time he sported an ugly 6.12 ERA with an equally disturbing 1.59 WHIP. Since returning in mid-June, he has made seven starts, allowing more than three runs just once, and that ERA has come down to 4.48 – not great overall, but a huge step forward from what it was. Wood has been steady, and as a young lefty he is still looking for consistent command, but it is coming steadily and he fits well here.
When you have a shot, and the money, you go for it, and the Dodgers certainly appear to be doing that. Not only did they significantly bolster their rotation, but they also added a couple of useful bullpen arms in Jim Johnsonand Luis Avilan. Neither figures to collect saves, but the bullpen improves, theoretically making their rotation even better.
Mike Leake to San Francisco:
Sometimes a trade happens that mixes a well-suited player with an environment that seems to be almost ideal. Leake going to San Francisco might just fit that description. It's not always the biggest names who make a huge impact, and when a player is a good fit, but lacks the big name profile, the player can be somewhat overlooked. There are no guarantees, but I think Leake might be one of the best acquisitions of the week.
He's not overpowering, but he can miss bats when the situation calls for it. His K/9 is down somewhat this year, but he tends to pitch to contact and only pursue punchouts when he needs one. The key to success for Leake is staying down in the zone and inducing groundballs. The Giants' infield defense probably gives him a little boost there. However, when he does miss up, with his pedestrian fastball, he can be hurt by home runs, and moving from the bandbox in Cincinnati to San Francisco will definitely help in that category. He pitches like you would like a pitcher to pitch with the Giants.
While Leake should be a solid addition for the Giants, the Reds didn't come out of this deal empty-handed. Keury Mella, who was the key component coming to Cincinnati, is an arm with impressive credentials. Don't look for him this year, he's just 21 and is working in High-A ball, but he moves well up on the Reds' prospect list, and they will continue to work on his sometimes violent mechanics. Dynasty leaguers take note.
Mike Fiers to Houston:
The stereotypical finesse pitcher, Fiers has been on a roller coaster since 2012. He impressed in 2012, was obliterated in his short stay with the Brewers in 2013, then after nearly an entire season in the minors, he returned last year and was the talk of the fantasy world with a 0.88 WHIP, a 2.13 ERA, and 76 strikeouts in 72 innings. Fast forward to this spring and expectations were high. Unfortunately, he regressed to brutal and struggled mightily early on. So, will the real Fiers please take a step forward.
The Astros, and reportedly several other teams, see something. His ERA started out at 5.79 during the month of April, but it has steadily improved each month since. He still gets hit too hard at times, especially when pitching out of the stretch, and he can lose command of the strike zone, issuing too many walks with higher pitch counts, but teams think they can clean up his delivery and make him more consistent. His delivery is deceptive; part of the reason he has been averaging about a strikeout per inning, but he needs to work on a more repeatable delivery while maintaining that deception.
I have never been a huge fan of Fiers, and I often predicted struggles ahead, even when he was in a dazzling groove. That said, he could be one of those guys who really clicks when he joins a new organization. The Astros think he can help them, so they probably have some ideas. He'll provide depth for their rotation, but may serve as a swingman.
Dan Haren to Chicago (NL):
Changes in venue and environment don't always help a pitcher. Haren has enjoyed a very good career, but he is 34 years old, and he has fought injuries for much the recent past. He was dealt to the Marlins prior to this season, and he contemplated retirement rather than pitch somewhere other than the West Coast (his family lives there). After being dealt to the Cubs at the deadline, he reiterated his thoughts of hanging it up. There would seem to be a pretty good chance that could happen if he doesn't land out west for next year. But, his chronic back issues are always going to be a concern.
So where does that leave the Cubs and his fantasy owners? Right now his numbers aren't bad – a 1.09 WHIP and a 3.42 ERA. However, his velocity if down again (averaging 86 mph on his fastball), he has already allowed 21 homeruns, and his strikeout rate is at a career low 6.14/9. He is savvy enough to get by on some nights, but he is moving to a team that struggles defensively, and to a park that is not nearly as pitcher-friendly as his home in Miami. And, is his heart really in it these days?
He hasn't made a full complement of starts since 2011, and he has a history of wearing down with more back flare-ups as the seasons wear on. When the back acts up, he becomes much more hittable, and the home runs fly. If I could find a Cubs fan willing to give me value in a trade for Haren, I'd be ready to say yes.
Sometimes it's the trades that don't happen:
Even though the trading deadline has passed, that just means players now have to pass through waivers before they can be dealt. There will still be deals. The trades that took place before the deadline were prominent and numerous. In particular, a lot of top tier pitching changed uniforms. That said, some of the biggest surprises centered on teams that did not make any major moves. The most active teams weren't the normal players. The big dealers included Toronto, Kansas City, Texas, and Houston, while teams like the Yankees and Angels were relatively quiet. It may be difficult for the Yankees to match the Blue Jays going forward, and the Angels moves probably won't keep them on a par with the Astros, and maybe not the Rangers. Interesting. And, the team everyone seemed to be waiting on, expecting a huge fire sale, the Padres, were also quiet.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
- The Yankees were quiet throughout the trading frenzy despite losing their top starter Michael Pineda to the disabled list with a forearm strain. So far they are saying he could return in September. The injury does, however, punch blue chip prospect Luis Severino's ticket to the show.
- The Pirates may have dodged a major bullet with A.J. Burnett. He went on the disabled list with a flexor tendon strain, and he has said surgery won't be an option – he would rather retire. An MRI revealed no other damage, so he is now rehabbing and could return before the end of this season.
- Not only did the Angels fail to enhance their pitching staff at the trading deadline, they now expect C.J. Wilson to need season-ending surgery on his elbow. He should be healthy for next spring if that happens, but they couldn't afford to lose one of their more reliable starters during this year's playoff drive.
- The Cubs are getting great innings out of Jon Lester. It's a good thing he limits the baserunners, because he has the yips when it comes to holding runners on or throwing over to first base. I think he has had 30-plus bases stolen while he is on the mound, and that really hurts his overall performance.
- I was looking forward to seeing Boston's rookie southpaw Henry Owens, and I liked a lot of what I saw. He got behind a lot of hitters early, but he stayed on his game and showed a willingness to come inside, and mix up his pitches. He's going to need to hone his command – no surprise – but he looks promising.
- It was an interesting week for debuts. Colorado's Jon Gray also made his first start earlier this week. He pitched reasonably well, albeit needing 77 pitches to get through four innings. Gray is a genuine pitching prospect despite working in Coors Field. The park obviously hurts his overall projections.
Endgame Odyssey:
Starting pitching wasn't only show as the deadline came and went. Some closers came and went, clouding roles in some cities, and opening up opportunities in others. The Nationals acquired Jonathan Papelbon and anointed him their closer. Drew Storentook the hit in that deal, and Ken Giles finally gets the chance to close in Philadelphia. Joakim Soria goes to Pittsburgh where he will set up Mark Melancon, and the closer's gig in Detroit was immediately up for grabs. Alex Wilson might get the first crack, but it could take time for this one to sort out. Edward Mujica is stepping in for Tyler Clippard who was dealt to the Mets, but the A's hope it will be short term as Sean Doolittle is finally expected to go out on rehab in the next few days. There was conversation about who would take over closer duties in Atlanta, but David Aardsma has been awful, clearing the way for Arodys Vizcaino to take the job. Of course there are also a few situations where current closers are pitching their way out of the job. Jason Motte and Rafael Sorianohave been brutal for the Cubs, and may have reopened the door for Hector Rondon. In Colorado, John Axford has turned back into Mr. Hyde so they will look to try former closer Rafael Betancourt. A sleeper for closing duties could be the newly-acquired Miguel Castro. He's probably the Rockies' future closer. Carson Smith has been shaky of late as Seattle's closer, but unless they want to go back to a similarly shaky Fernando Rodney, there aren't a lot of good options.