Mound Musings: Looking at the Future

Last Sunday, as it always is, was one of the highlights of my season. The Futures Game is a showcase of exceptional talent, both in the batter's box and on the mound. I mean, where else can you see so many quality young arms, on their way up, and all pitching in the same place, and on the same day? Admittedly, it's a little disappointing that they typically only throw one inning, but there are a lot of things for which to watch.

It was an interesting Futures Game. I didn't think it featured as many blue chip pitchers as we have seen in the past, but there were some good ones, and I thought the position players were deeper than ever. So, the pitchers there truly were challenged by the talent they faced. That said, as usual, I thought I would find myself primarily looking at raw talent – perhaps at the High-A or Low-A level – with the tools to make an impact at some point a little further down the line. There was that, but there were also a few arms knocking at the major league door.

Brent Honeywell (Tampa Bay Rays)

It's a little bit unusual for a pitcher to make a significant move on my watch list based on a couple of innings, but Honeywell made an impression. I already liked him and have been keeping an eye on him, but he has made some strides since my last look and has probably grabbed a spot on my top 10. Starting the game, he had to be amped up, but he displayed excellent mound presence to go with his outstanding repertoire. He has five viable pitches headlined by a high-90s fastball and an excellent changeup (that's the pitch that really caught my eye). He even throws a screwball, which you almost never see these days. I was hoping he would throw a few, but he treated us to just one in his two innings of work. He struck out four of the six hitters he faced, and he leads the minor leagues in strikeouts, so he can obviously miss bats. I love that he gets ahead in counts and he mixes things up, keeping batters off balance. It's a small sample for me, but even though the Rays are prone to conservative promotions, he looks major league ready.

Yadier Alvarez (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Alvarez was already on the top 10 list, and he showed enough to comfortably stay there. He has great stuff, too, but he's not quite the finished product yet. I think what I have always liked most about him is the free and easy motion he has that still gets the ball there in a hurry. And, that motion is getting smoother and more repeatable as the Dodgers work on refining his mechanics. He compliments the lively fastball with a crisp curveball and an improving slider. His changeup is still inconsistent, but it's coming along and with his efficient delivery, I think it will be another reliable pitch, making him a solid top-of-the-rotation candidate. He moved up to High-A this season, and he has struggled to throw strikes at times. That has again kept his starts relatively short, so it's hard to predict how he'll fare as he pitches deeper into games. The Dodgers know he's a work in progress, so they're not going to push him too hard. As he learns to spot his electric fastball and gains confidence in his secondary stuff he could steadily move up the organizational food chain. I don't expect to see him in Los Angeles until late next season at the earliest, so he should be kept on dynasty draft lists.

Mike Soroka (Atlanta Braves)

He's the one I was most anxious to see again. We've all seen how the Astros have built a young juggernaut of mashers, and the Braves are creating their own version centered on pitching. And, in an organization as deep in young pitching talent as I've ever seen, I think Soroka is at, or at least near, the top of the class. At the beginning of this year I had three Braves' kids on my dynasty roster. I've since dealt two of them (Ian Anderson and Touki Toussaint) as I'm in the hunt for a title and needed to patch some holes, but I was determined to hang onto Soroka. He throws quality strikes, with a full but still improving repertoire, he keeps the ball in the park and he's doing it all level after level as the team moves him up. He doesn't have a huge arm (91-93, touching 96 mph) but he commands all of his offerings while staying ahead of opponents' adjustments. That is hard to coach. He doesn't project as an ace, but the rugged former hockey player is exceptionally athletic and could be a solid workhorse (he tossed an almost unbelievable 143 innings in his first full pro season at Low-A Rome).

Cal Quantrill (San Diego Padres)

The Padres drafted him eighth overall last year after he missed all of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. He pitched just 37 innings in 2016 after signing, so he's really still just getting his professional feet wet. He has a nice mid-90s fastball but it can get a little straight at times, and he needs to spot it well to set up his best pitch – a well-developed changeup that is a put-away pitch. He wasn't getting ahead of hitters in this game, and he still appears to be feeling his way a bit, although he has been relatively successful at High-A Lake Elsinore so far this year (it's a hitter-friendly league so modest numbers are still impressive). As you know, you can't base your complete evaluation on an inning, especially against an all-star lineup, but when you look at a guy pitch-by-pitch you can get a good feel for what he might bring as he settles in. The Padres feel he is making steady progress and have assigned him to Double-A San Antonio to begin the second half. It will be interesting to see how his change-up plays against advanced hitters.

Thyago Vieira (Seattle Mariners)

This was my favorite raw arm in the game. You rarely see a pitcher with an 80-rated fastball (20 to 80 scale), but the Brazilian flamethrower has earned that distinction. He didn't reach it in the Futures Game but he has touched 104 mph so velocity resides in abundance. All but one of his fastballs exceeded 99 mph, and he's capable of mixing in a sharp breaking, albeit inconsistent, curveball. The Mariners aren't even testing his ability to make it as a starter, and he is currently working exclusively as a late inning reliever at Double-A Arkansas. He still lacks command and he will need a more reliable breaking ball as a put-away pitch, and to make that fastball seem even faster, but he has "closer" written all over his power arm so he's worth monitoring.

And, here are some Futures Game short takes:

There were actually two other pitchers with 80-grade fastballs in this game. Orioles' lefty Tanner Scott throws pellets but is challenged in finding his release point. The same can be said for the White Sox' Michael Kopech. Both have 90-plus mph sliders and both are currently taking a turn every five days, but they need to refine their command and further develop a third pitch or they may find their way to the bullpen. Finally, continue to track Oakland's A.J. Puk. I think he'll adjust to Double-A hitters fairly soon.

Some Notable Rotation Happenings:

• It looks like the Giants will get Madison Bumgarner back this weekend. The team has been a big disappointment so far, but don't be surprised if he returns with a vengeance, and the synergy of him being on the mound raises the level of the rest of the staff. An "ace" often impacts his teammates.

• I'm staying on the bandwagon of Toronto's J.A. Happ heading into the second half despite the clinker against the Astros right before the break. Houston is on a tear and they roughed him up, but I keep seeing positive signs. Some bad breaks (and untimely home runs) have hurt, but I expect better going forward.

• The Mets say Matt Harvey wasn't really 100 percent when he returned from thoracic outlet surgery. Muscle mass in his shoulder had reportedly diminished, and he has focused on rebuilding strength in that area. I loved the guy when he was on his game, and, if available, he might be a potential high reward claim.

• The red hot Astros look like they could get better soon. Charlie Morton returned right before the break, while Collin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel shouldn't be too far behind. With that offense, wins could come in bunches for their mound corps, and they're reportedly still considering the addition of another arm.

• Kyle Freeland carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his last start (in Coors Field) before the break. I think it's safe to say new manager Bud Black has had a very positive impact on the young Colorado arms. That home park continues to haunt them, but that rotation is becoming pretty appealing in road starts.

• After missing two months, and getting spanked in his first start back from the disabled list, the Rangers' Cole Hamels may be finding his groove. Both he and Yu Darvish will need to get on a serious role if they want to challenge Houston. They have the tools to do just that, and I think they'll step up.
  

The Rangers are feeling their way through the recent bullpen struggles. Matt Bush has been better lately, but they appear hesitant to put him back into the closer's gig. When he gets healthy, I think they'd like to see Keone Kela before deciding where to go with Bush. The Angels are back to using Bud Norris in the end game, but I think there's a good chance it's more of a trade showcase than a rest of the year commitment. If the Mets decide to be sellers, I believe Addison Reed could be a hot commodity. The Nationals would probably love to have him, but trading with teams within your division is often difficult to do. The White Sox have again put the brakes on the throwing program of Nate Jones after he experienced more discomfort in his arm. I think he's probably now a longshot to see ninth inning duties even if David Robertson is dealt. Tommy Kahnle would probably be next in line for saves. It's late enough now to start wondering if the Cubs can get back into the race. If they don't break sharply out of the gate in the second half, Wade Davis will be a free agent after this season and demand would be extremely high. If that happens, Koji Uehara isn't the future, but Carl Edwards Jr. might be. I also think Atlanta's Jim Johnson might move this month. He's better suited to a set-up role, and it would open the door for Arodys Vizcaino.