Mound Musings: Building a Championship Team – Part 1

Let me preface this and the next "Mound Musings" column with all due apologies to players in redraft leagues. Many of you know, I play almost exclusively in keeper and/or dynasty formats, with auction drafts. My approach is therefore pretty skewed to building winners, which is quite different from drafting a team for today only. That said, I would like to share some of the things I have learned in more than 30 years of fantasy baseball competition that might help you build a championship team.

Pitching is, of course, just part of the championship equation, but it's an integral part. In my experience, I have found that many fantasy players feel it is more difficult to assess pitchers than hitters, and that constructing a competitive pitching staff is a huge benefit in fielding a competitive team. And, the deeper the league, the more critical it becomes.

In this two-part series, I'd like to pass along some thoughts on two facets of building a winner in keeper/dynasty leagues. The concepts are somewhat similar – albeit not identical – when accumulating hitting and pitching. Naturally, the "Musings" will focus on the finer points of developing a pitching staff. In this part, I will explore conceptual strategy, specifically the assessment of current roster abilities and the planning of staff building when the current ability level suggests you build for the future. In Part 2, next week, we'll delve more deeply into identifying pitchers to build around.

It's time to get started. When the dust settles, hopefully you'll have some new (or maybe reinforced) strategies for building a dream pitching staff.

Here is our criteria for determining current positioning, and initial planning:

• Competitive status today: When I first started playing fantasy baseball, it took me a while to figure out I wasn't likely to win my keeper league every season. In truth, that was a little hard to digest, but once I realized that fact, and planned on ebbs and flows in annual competitive status, I began to win with some regularity. Assuming your league has quite a few competent owners, the budgetary balance usually spreads the talent around. Unlike real baseball where some teams have very deep pockets, fantasy league structure promotes balance. It's early May. You need to look objectively at your roster, and your position in the standings. If you can compete to win your league this year, your approach should be very different regarding roster management than it will be if you see your team doing no better than a mediocre also ran. Obviously, crazy things can happen, pushing your squad higher or lower in the standings, but more often than not, with honest assessment, you'll be able to read the tea leaves and make a logical call. For the purposes of this series, we'll assume you see your team finishing no better than the middle of the pack in 2018. That's okay, it's time to go to work!

• Scouting (and planning) is 365 days a year: Hopefully, you are already doing this. If your team falls out of contention, that doesn't really mean you should "wait until next year," and take a several month sabbatical from fantasy baseball. Ideally, you have a list – a relatively short list – of targeted players. Normally, my list contains maybe eight to 10 pitchers I'd like to acquire. I won't be able to get them all, as some will be favorites of their current owners, and some will carry the future hopes of a team currently floundering in the standings like yours, but at least a few will reside on teams in the hunt for a title this year, or they might still be on your league's waiver wire. Summer, winter, spring and fall, you should be adjusting that list; updating it and managing it. Your objective is to construct a keeper list for next season, filled with high-upside, high-value pitchers. The leagues I play in have 12-15 keeper slots. I normally plan on half (sometimes slightly more) of those spots going to nucleus pitchers. That means I will want about six to eight pitchers with favorable contracts on my roster before the current season ends. Just be aware, not every pitcher you add will end up making the cut, so a couple extras are to be expected. Just strive to collect guys you feel offer enough positive attributes to warrant serious consideration. Just last week I acquired Matt Harvey after he was removed from the Mets' rotation. He was once named in discussions with Noah Syndergaard and Jacob DeGrom. He's been struggling – possibly not fully recovered from thoracic outlet surgery – and it's his walk year. He could be dealt, and some team is likely to think they can "fix" him. If that happens he could offer tremendous value. There are several factors that can impact a pitcher's inclusion and ranking on your list, and we'll cover those in Part 2 of this series.

• Asset management: Once you've identified target arms, it's time to take inventory to see what you can peddle or cut to acquire the pitchers you want. The list will begin with expiring contracts of proven producers. Unable to protect them for next season, they will likely be appealing to teams playing for a title this year. Look at each of the top teams' rosters to see if there's a good match for a deal – they need a player you have with an expiring contract, and they have one or more of your target pitchers, hopefully not currently making a significant contribution. Take note, teams trying to catch the current front-runner might be more anxious to acquire your star player. I sometimes collect players I have little interest in keeping if I think they might hold some trade value. Obviously, you can also cut low upside players who don't have much recognized value to clear roster space for targets. Always be prepared. Most leagues allow you to pick up any player at any time (I'm actually in one league that only allows players currently in the major leagues to be picked up, which is a huge disadvantage). Opportunity knocks, but the door may not stay open long. For example, I picked up Shohei Ohtani last year the week rumors began to circulate he might come to the United States. How aggressive you are in adding pitchers is relative to their potential impact.

• Collecting potentially high upside pieces: Now that you're ready to implement your plan, you need to reserve roster space for those high upside target arms. One specific facet of collection is the use of multiple position players. Even when I'm participating in a competitive season, I try to maintain at least one, perhaps two roster spots for my most coveted kids – keeping the pipeline full as it were. These multiple position players could be somewhat more useful to you than they are to other teams because you don't need to dedicate as many roster spots to reserve players. Ideally, in a competitive season, you can roster kids who offer that ever-important high upside and who could also contribute to your pennant chase. This year, in one league, I have Mike Soroka on the roster, hoping for a boost in the second half. Okay, I also have a position player filling one of my future spots. I am intrigued with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the price was right on draft day as a promotion is not guaranteed, given his young age.

• History vs. a crystal ball: I really do hope you are enjoying and profiting from this edition of the "Musings," but I urge you to read this next segment, and then re-read it. It's of critical importance in redraft leagues, and it's even more important when building a keeper league champion. Never forget that baseball players are human. They evolve and they can change. Knowing what they have done in the past is certainly useful, but predicting what they might do in the future is what fantasy baseball is all about. Advanced metrics have become a huge help in predicting the future. Use them. But, use your own observations to make decisions, too. It's not difficult to predict that Max Scherzer or Chris Sale will have very good seasons. They will be full price on draft day next year. Your objective is to identify pitchers who could enjoy breakout seasons, and most importantly, provide low cost contributions to your championship run in the future. There will be "buzz" pitchers every spring. Others will be virtual afterthoughts. Should you aggressively pursue Luis Castillo? Or would Patrick Corbin be a better value target? The pre-draft hype saw Castillo's ADP rise to 92, while Corbin's settled around 227. In next week's "Mound Musings, Part 2 of Building a Championship Team," I will go over the key attributes and angles I focus on when assessing pitcher upside and then compiling my target list. Yes, you'll make mistakes. That I can guarantee. I make them every day. However, with practice and patience, you'll discover a lot of gems to help you win it all.
  

• Angels' southpaw Tyler Skaggs is drawing my attention. I'd like to see him maintain a little more consistency, but his last start against a heavy-hitting Yankees lineup was encouraging. I'm a little concerned that a six-man, ever-shuffling rotation could have a negative impact on that consistency.

• The Pirates gave Nick Kingham a spot start last weekend, but after taking a perfect game into the seventh inning (broken up by a clean single off the bat of Paul DeJong), he bought himself another chance. There could be a fulltime rotation spot to claim (Steven Brault) if he builds on his flashy debut.

• Checking in on Lance Lynn. His numbers with the Twins, so far, have been genuinely ugly, and I wanted to see if it was bad luck or bad pitching. In his start against Toronto, it was the latter. He was all over the place, and when he threw strikes, they were in the heart of the plate. He's a mess right now.

• In watching Jeff Samardzija's most recent start, I came away with mixed feelings. His breaking pitches showed good depth for the most part, but his fastball location was inconsistent. He was getting under the ball at times causing his offerings to stay up. Some adjustment is needed, but I'm optimistic.

• Here's a guy builders can add to their target lists. The White Sox' Carlos Rodon is working his way back from shoulder surgery last fall. He's not expected back for about a month, and there's likely to be rust to overcome the rest of this year. However, if he comes back healthy, he's loaded with upside for 2019.

• We got a May Day bonus as Atlanta's Mike Soroka made his major league debut. I don't usually put much stock in those, especially in New York City, but he did a solid job. He threw his full repertoire with confidence, and while he messed up a few times (with his slider), he maintained his composure like a veteran.