This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Can you believe it? This is the fifth installment of arms to watch for each division, and we'll wrap it up next week. That means Opening Day is on the horizon. This column focuses on value -- now and during the season. There is no denying that a full season of a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw will help your team, but you will have invested a first-round pick or probably the highest price paid for a pitcher. He'll be on winning teams, but the most successful fantasy owners will have uncovered value picks in the later rounds. We'll see if we can identify some of those treasures. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West
Garrett Richards (LAA) - Richards was rather non-descript prior to 2014 when he opened many eyes. He has a golden arm (triple digits for a starter is pretty rare) and when the movement increased and his command sharpened, he began to move up into the elite category. Then a fluke knee injury cut his 2014 season short. Still, the memories drove his price up on draft day 2015. He had a good, but not great year that included a 1.24 WHIP, with a 3.65 ERA and only 176 strikeouts in 207 innings. He didn't hurt his owners, but he may not have generated much value based on his price/draft position. It was as if he had partially slipped back to pre-2014 command of his repertoire. Look for that
Can you believe it? This is the fifth installment of arms to watch for each division, and we'll wrap it up next week. That means Opening Day is on the horizon. This column focuses on value -- now and during the season. There is no denying that a full season of a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw will help your team, but you will have invested a first-round pick or probably the highest price paid for a pitcher. He'll be on winning teams, but the most successful fantasy owners will have uncovered value picks in the later rounds. We'll see if we can identify some of those treasures. Let's get to it this week with:
Seven Arms to Watch in the AL West
Garrett Richards (LAA) - Richards was rather non-descript prior to 2014 when he opened many eyes. He has a golden arm (triple digits for a starter is pretty rare) and when the movement increased and his command sharpened, he began to move up into the elite category. Then a fluke knee injury cut his 2014 season short. Still, the memories drove his price up on draft day 2015. He had a good, but not great year that included a 1.24 WHIP, with a 3.65 ERA and only 176 strikeouts in 207 innings. He didn't hurt his owners, but he may not have generated much value based on his price/draft position. It was as if he had partially slipped back to pre-2014 command of his repertoire. Look for that to change this season. And, if the prospects weren't bright enough, he is reportedly working on re-introducing a changeup into the mix. If that happens, and I think it will, his strikeout totals could increase, and contact rates could diminish. If the other owners in your league have mellowed on his upside, grab him. The best is yet to come.
Yu Darvish (TEX) - Pitchers capable of providing a sterling WHIP and ERA with the very real possibility of more than 200 strikeouts don't usually make this list. They are rightfully hot commodities on draft day. The trick is, Darvish isn't expected to be back on the Texas mound until mid-May after missing last season following Tommy John surgery. He likely will be a little rusty, and the Rangers aren't going to over work him as he builds himself back up, but he is still a premium option in fantasy circles -- he's that good. Darvish doesn't rely on overpowering stuff, his fastball averages about 93 mph, but he has an assortment of pitches that would make your favorite smorgasbord look like a run-of-the-mill, street corner hot dog cart. The big benefit to that wide array of options is the ability to mix and match with whatever pitches are working that day. That should help minimize any lingering rust. I admit, I am banking on a nice discount from being out of sight last season, and owners downgrading him too severely for missing the first six weeks of this season. There is some risk, but the high ceiling compensates.
James Paxton (SEA) - Here's a $1 special for those who are not faint of heart. A few years ago there was a lot of buzz regarding Paxton. A southpaw with an electric fastball and just enough wildness to be unnerving can be a very effective pitcher. Unfortunately, the command issues, coupled with his M.A.S.H.-worthy medical history, have taken much of the sparkle off of his resume. Paxton is technically still competing with Nate Karns for the fifth spot in the Seattle rotation, but he has more upside if he can stay healthy, and in the vicinity of the strike zone. His spring numbers have been less than impressive as he tinkers with a new pitch, while limiting what he uses in his outings, so that should scare away most potential suitors. With light workloads the last couple of years, you won't get 200 innings, but he'll give you quite a few strikeouts with the potential to produce a useful ERA.
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) - If you'd like a Mariners arm on your staff, but you aren't quite ready to set sail with Paxton, why not try a little Iwakuma? While he posted respectable numbers last season, injuries probably dulled their luster. You see, he has an approach that is relatively common among pitchers from Japan. That is, when it's your turn to pitch, you look in a mirror and if there are arms marginally attached to each shoulder, you head for the mound. Aches and pains are factored in. Given that he pitched just 130 innings in 2015, there were clearly days when he wasn't 100 percent healthy when he took the hill. Even so, his cumulative numbers were pretty solid, and they improved significantly late in the season when he reportedly got healthy (or at least healthier). I think there is fairly high upside with less than normal risk, and if he could stay healthy all season, you might see something like he produced in 2013 (1.01 WHIP, 2.66 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 219 innings). Iwakuma is 34, so there are miles on his body, but I am hoping for a season without too many of those aches and pains.
Derek Holland (TEX) - Here's another guy with numbers tarnished by injuries and layoffs the last couple seasons. I have been on the Holland bandwagon since 2012 when he hinted at what we might expect. In 2013 he evolved into a generally effective and occasionally dominating starter, and the fantasy world took notice. Early in 2014 he suffered a knee injury that turned into a lost season, albeit with just a taste of what might be around the corner. So 2015 was the season of expectations. A shoulder strain in March drug into August, and when he did return there was evident rust, which translated into iffy command and a slight dip in velocity. He made just 10 starts and ended up with a lackluster 1.30 WHIP and a home-run inflated 4.91 ERA. The Rangers will probably keep a tighter leash on him, but he could bring everything back together and make himself a fantasy asset. If he's going cheap, jump.
Sonny Gray (OAK) - Are your most recent memories the ones that stand out when evaluating a baseball player? As is sometimes the case, Oakland and Houston (see below) didn't present me with any clear-cut candidates for this list. That said, I am going to go with Gray here, and hope his struggles in September, and to a certain extent this spring, might drive his price down and provide some unexpected value. If your opponents base their bidding on Gray's overall numbers (1.08 WHIP, 2.73 ERA) they will be bidding on a very competent starting pitcher, but if they establish their top bid based on the first five months of the season (0.98 WHIP, 2.13 ERA at the end of August), the price is likely to be considerably higher. He is smallish -- just 5-foot10 -- and there is a school of thought that says he won't be able to hold up under a typical workload, but I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as long as I can get him at a discount.
Lance McCullers (HOU) - This was a tough choice. The Astros are getting better and there are pitchers contributing. However, I think both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh could be somewhat overpriced on draft day, and the others like Doug Fister, Scott Feldman and Mike Fiers (OK, I was very briefly tempted) just don't excite me. That left me with McCullers as the Astros' representative on this list, and he is on the shelf with shoulder woes. Yikes! If you buy into the team report that there was no structural damage revealed in his MRI, he actually fits pretty well. Young (22) and sometimes restless (a minor league history of high walk rates), McCullers will need to maintain the reasonably good control he displayed with the Astros in 2015. If he does that, and the shoulder quiets down, he has a lively fastball and keeps the ball in the park so he can give you a decent WHIP with a solid ERA and over a strikeout per inning.
The Endgame Odyssey
Here I'll cover some notes and observations on the closer scenarios across baseball. Over these weeks, the focus will be on the division featured in arms to watch.
The last few years the Astros have entered each season with a lot of late-game question marks, but 2016 is different. Loaded with young talent, the Astros sense a chance to be in the hunt for the post season, so they acquired Ken Giles. He's a beast and a very strong closer, plus he makes it possible for others, like his primary backup Luke Gregerson to pitch in more appropriate roles. ... Huston Street returns as the closer for the Angels, and while he isn't the prototypical end-gamer, as long as he stays healthy he'll get the ninth inning. ... Steve Cishek likely will begin the season closing in Seattle, but if he can't find the plate, owners may be glad if they have Joaquin Benoit standing by. ... A Cinderella story from last season, Shawn Tolleson earned the right to handle the job in Texas, but the Rangers have collected alternatives like Tom Wilhelmsen and the guy I think might eventually end up with the gig, Keone Kela. ... Oakland could host the most intriguing closer scenario. Sean Doolittle will definitely get the first shot, but he has been haunted with health issues. If he falters, the A's brought in Ryan Madson, and a dark horse could be Liam Hendriks who should be a key component of their bullpen in whatever role he takes on.
Next week we'll close out the preseason series when we look at Seven Arms to Watch in the NL West.
