Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

At least a couple of times each season, I take a deep breath and then ask the ultimate question, seeking the ultimate answer. There are always a handful of random thoughts, which are interesting, unbelievable, or both, and it's an opportunity to throw some ideas on the field that may not have been yet discussed in the more topic-focused editions of the Musings. Maybe you have an arm in mind you'd like to evaluate, or perhaps a pitching thought to toss out there? It's worth a shot, so let's go.

7,000? Really?!?!: I read a note the other day that stated MLB is on pace to have more than 7,000 fewer balls in play than just four years ago. What??? There are 2,430 games played in a full season, which means, at the current pace, there will be nearly three fewer balls put in play in each and every game! The swing hard and hope you hit it approach, complete with exit velocity and launch angle at the forefront, is having a big impact on pitching performance. Strikeouts are not balls in play. So there you see the increasing impact of pitchers with high strikeout rates. Fewer balls in play reduces the batting averages against, so competitive WHIPs can be expected to be lower. Walks (and higher WHIPs) will theoretically be more dangerous with the increased home run rate among position players normally expected to produce modest power at most. For me, these evolving hitting tactics have me focusing more than ever on higher strikeout rates and lower WHIPs, especially among pitchers who tend to allow a few home runs. That may seem rather obvious, but the key is that it places even more focus on those factors, and reduces the number of pitchers in the useful pool.

I can't (fully) explain it: Every season a handful of hitters will accomplish something somewhere between a breakout season and a career year. In most cases, it's not a huge surprise. This season, with this new approach to hitting, in general home runs (and strikeouts) have significantly increased, while batting averages have declined. I can accept, and explain that. What I am having difficulty coming to grips with is the number of previously nondescript veteran players posting stats that are almost beyond belief.

Let's break down a hypothetical draft day scenario. You entered the 2018 auction draft with high hopes, but as the day progressed, you realized you had overextended your budget in securing the services of a handful of highly coveted hitters. Adjusting on the fly, you find yourself adding a collection of platoon-types, journeymen and utility players you hope will stick with the big club, and perhaps provide enough value to complement the real stars of your team. Below, is a list of guys who might have found their way on to your roster. It's a representative group that covers all needed positions.

C – Francisco Cervelli(Pirates)
1B – Max Muncy (Dodgers)
2B – Scooter Gennett (Reds)
SS – Jurickson Profar (Rangers)
3B – Eduardo Escobar (Twins)
OF – Matt Kemp(Dodgers)
OF – Shin-Soo Choo (Rangers)
OF – Brandon Nimmo(Mets)

You probably recognize a trend here. I looked at the rosters of one of my leagues. Those eight players have contracts totaling $19 (three of them weren't purchased on draft day), yet, nearly halfway through the season, they are averaging more than 12 home runs and 38 RBI; they have an aggregate .284 batting average and a whopping average .907 OPS. The player I found to have the closest comparative stats? Paul Goldschmidt has a few more home runs (16) and a slightly lower average (.266) with 39 RBI and a .908 OPS. His draft day price tag was $42 in that same league. The times they are a changing.

The "Do No Harm" principle: Regular readers know I have mentioned this principle many times. The impact of sub-par performance, injuries and the need to win now can be devastating for actual MLB teams and your fantasy squad. Just like you, they may have to replace a regular starter, and their goal will be (at least) to "do no harm" while that regular starter is out of action. It's very unlikely that you'll be able to stack a rotation with nothing but healthy, top-of-the-rotation talent, but you have to be careful when filling those back-of-the-rotation slots, and always look to upgrade that spot. More so than with hitters, a bad fill-in pitcher can be disastrous. In a very short time, they can destroy your WHIP and ERA for almost the entire season. So, remember, an upgrade helps in two ways – you get the benefit of the numbers posted by the better pitcher, and you get the benefit of not having to absorb the ugly numbers provided by the lesser guy. A top prospect can be very appealing, but is the kid ready? These days, pitchers are frequently rushed to the majors, and while they may briefly enjoy some success while hitters learn their strengths and weaknesses, the under-developed aspects of their game usually surfaces fairly soon. Be objective when evaluating kids and note something that might seem a bit odd, as teams are usually more conservative in promoting the best arms.

The trade winds are beginning to blow: I'm going to make a bold prediction and say I think there will be several "name" relief pitchers changing uniforms before the trade deadline. There don't appear to be many difference-maker starters available, and with the increased reliance on bullpens, contenders could be scrambling to acquire a proven late-inning guy while the sellers will look to cash in. In fact, it has already begun with the Nationals – quickly becoming famous for loading up their bullpen – picking up Royals closer Kelvin Herrera for three minor leaguers. Herrera will likely step right into the key setup role and could pick up an occasional save as the Nats will want to save the sometimes fragile arm of Sean Doolittle. I know the next question: Who closes in Kansas City? I'm going to take a stab at Brandon Maurer with a stash pick of wild man Josh Staumont. They have no clear choice, and Maurer has closing experience. I think there's a good chance the Cardinals will be shopping, especially if Greg Holland continues to struggle. The Braves could use a proven end-gamer. If the injury-riddled Angels can stay close as the deadline approaches, fixing an erratic bullpen could easily become a priority. And, there could be plenty of teams, out of contention, willing to peddle their wares to the highest bidder. Baltimore would probably consider moving Zach Britton or Brad Brach or maybe both. The Padres reportedly already have suitors for Brad Hand (and possibly Kirby Yates). Detroit has Shane Greene just holding a seat for Joe Jimenez, so Greene could depart. If the Mets' Jeurys Familia can prove he's healthy, there could be interest there. The Marlins would love for somebody, anybody, to offer them anything for Brad Ziegler. The rebuilding White Sox have enjoyed something of a renaissance from former elite closer Joakim Soria. He's not the arm he once was, but he could be generating a nice bump in value. Even the Rangers might dangle Keone Kela, who is 17 for 17 in save chances this year.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating pitching choices for our fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I'm always looking for lesser-known arms that might be able to help a fantasy team at the back end of the rotation, and I've been following Andrew Suarez of the Giants a bit lately. In his last outing, against Miami, he displayed composure while sequencing well as the game progressed. He's worth some thought.

• Trevor Bauer is one of the hardest pitchers for me to watch. There are times when he looks totally lost on the mound, and it's pretty easy to tell readers to stay away. Then, he turns into a monster in a start (like his last outing against the White Sox), and I want to hit rewind, and watch him again and again.

• Phillies' right-hander Nick Pivetta had been struggling recently, so I took a look to see what might be going wrong. Seven-plus innings and 13 strikeouts later (against the Cardinals) the answer was...nothing. I love how he pitches (the most in MLB), and if he commands his pitches, he's tough.

• The Blue Jays expect Marcus Stroman to rejoin the rotation this weekend. He has been out with a balky shoulder, which likely contributed to a horrendous stat line (0-5, 1.71 WHIP, 7.71 ERA) since early May. I hate shoulder woes, but if he's fully healthy, he could thrive in this swing from the heels era.

• Just a couple of weeks ago, it appeared the Cardinals would be forced to make a tough decision regarding a crowded rotation, Now, after Michael Wacha left his last start with a strained oblique, they might be looking at Austin Gomber or John Gant to step in for an extended period. Neither is likely a fantasy asset.

• Rangers' southpaw Cole Hamels is one starting pitcher I think might draw considerable interest as the trade deadline approaches. He struggled a bit early but has settled back into a solid rotation anchor capable of pitching deep into games. He just needs to limit the home runs to really attract attention.
  

Last Sunday was an official closer nightmare day. These events pop up every now and then just to remind fantasy owners how unpredictable baseball can be. The Phillies would love to keep their usage options open with Seranthony Dominguez, but their primary alternative, Hector Neris (since sent down), was doing his best (worst) to force their hand. After Neris imploded, Jake Thompson recorded a one-pitch save. His iffy secondary stuff has contributed to his struggles as a starter, so maybe they will try him in the end game? The Rockies must feel a meltdown day falls a bit short. Their bullpen has been festering for some time, and their normally reliable closer, Wade Davis, has not been immune. On Sunday, he walked four (the pitches weren't close) with a couple of hits, while recording just one out to blow his second consecutive save chance. Assuming he's healthy, he's probably not in danger of losing his job, but Adam Ottavino could be a tempting option. Arizona's Brad Boxberger took a bit to get into the swing, striking out the first two hitters he faced, but the light-hitting Mets put the next four men on, including back-to-back homeruns to send the save up in flames. Boxberger has been reasonably reliable, so he's probably safe for now. Blake Parker of the Angels served up a homerun to the first batter he faced, then walked a pair and tossed in a wild pitch to make it easier for the tying run to score during his Sunday crash and burn audition. One has to wonder if this team will be exploring alternatives from probable sellers. Maybe Zach Britton? Giants closer Hunter Strickland waited until Monday to produce his nightmare. An ugly blown save, followed by a TKO against a wall. His hand is broken, and he's out for perhaps two months. Indications are Sam Dyson and Tony Watson will initially share ninth inning duties. However, Dyson was ineffective Wednesday against Miami, and Watson had already pitched. Reyes Moronta finished that game, but I'm guessing Mark Melancon will surface at some point. I'm just not convinced the plan is to pay him more than $60 million (through 2020) to pitch the sixth or seventh inning of lopsided games.