This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. The sixth segment features a look at the American League West. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2017 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:
American League West
Houston Astros – This is an intriguing rotation, albeit one highlighted by a starter who typically doesn't grab a lot of my attention. Dallas Keuchel routinely goes earlier in drafts than I'd feel comfortable taking him. There are a handful of pitchers who seemingly outperform their stuff, and Keuchel falls into that category. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid starter, but I question his value on draft days. He's followed by Lance McCullers who has upside remaining. Elbow and shoulder woes helped darken his stat line last year, but when healthy, he can be an impact arm. I'm not as excited about Collin McHugh, but he's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation type. Next up would be one of my favorite "sleepers" for this season. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell Charlie Morton he should try to be less visible this spring. He's quickly opening eyes, in part with a spike in velocity (touching 97 mph). If he can stay healthy, he could pay large dividends to fantasy owners. The fifth spot will likely go to Mike
Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. The sixth segment features a look at the American League West. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2017 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:
American League West
Houston Astros – This is an intriguing rotation, albeit one highlighted by a starter who typically doesn't grab a lot of my attention. Dallas Keuchel routinely goes earlier in drafts than I'd feel comfortable taking him. There are a handful of pitchers who seemingly outperform their stuff, and Keuchel falls into that category. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid starter, but I question his value on draft days. He's followed by Lance McCullers who has upside remaining. Elbow and shoulder woes helped darken his stat line last year, but when healthy, he can be an impact arm. I'm not as excited about Collin McHugh, but he's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation type. Next up would be one of my favorite "sleepers" for this season. Unfortunately, someone forgot to tell Charlie Morton he should try to be less visible this spring. He's quickly opening eyes, in part with a spike in velocity (touching 97 mph). If he can stay healthy, he could pay large dividends to fantasy owners. The fifth spot will likely go to Mike Fiers or Joe Musgrove. Save your money. Instead, wait for top prospect Francis Martes. At 21, his fastball and curveball are already top-of-the-rotation good, so he just needs to improve his changeup while refining his overall command to make a big splash. Watch for him.
This may be one of the more settled bullpens in the division. Ken Giles is the clear first choice to close games, and he certainly has the tools to get the job done as long as he spots his pitches. He'll be supported by a capable cast of Luke Gregerson (probably also the top guy if Giles needs a day off) who is a proven solid set-up guy, Will Harris and Tony Sipp. There's also one other intriguing name to watch. The Astros love the versatility of Chris Devenski who can pitch multiple innings out of the pen while perhaps serving as a true swingman, making a spot start as needed. I'm not thrilled about him as a regular starter, but this could be a potentially useful role.
Recapping the Astros:
The arm to own: Charlie Morton
He's not for me: Mike Fiers
Best of the bullpen: Ken Giles
Monitor his role: Francis Martes
Los Angeles Angels – There are a couple of pitchers who have my attention on this staff. Unfortunately, they aren't clear targets for draft day. If fully healthy, I would pursue Garrett Richards with enthusiasm. He might be healthy. His velocity is back, and his pitches show a lot of life, but has the medical experiment run its course? Richards opted for a therapy rather than surgical approach to ligament damage in his elbow. Forgoing Tommy John surgery is a path being taken by some pitchers these days, but for me the jury is still out. If it works, it could change the whole injury protocol for pitchers, but it's too early to say. I'd still like to have him, but I'd need a risk discount. The other arm is likely to open the season at Triple-A and doesn't really have a defined role yet. I love the stuff I see from Alex Meyer, but the 6'10" righty is still searching for that elusive release point. He's strictly stash material on deeper rosters. The next pair offer differing value equations. Matt Shoemaker can be pretty good at times, just not often enough to earn my trust, while Tyler Skaggs flashes ability with increasing frequency. One of the things that makes Meyer somewhat more appealing is the fact that Ricky Nolasco and Jesse Chavez are the pitchers most likely to fill out the back of the rotation. If they are in your rotation plans, the waiver wire could be your best friend.
And here is an unsettled bullpen. It's not that the Angels wouldn't like defined roles heading into the season, the fact is health question-marks are making that difficult. Ideally, Huston Street would be 100 percent and he could close games early while building trade value. His injury history will make it important for him to pitch effectively and consistently in high leverage situations. With Street possibly missing a couple weeks, closing duties likely fall to Cam Bedrosian. He's a competent option and will probably end up with the job long term. They also have the experienced, albeit extremely fragile, Andrew Bailey, and don't forget the dark horse, Meyer, if he doesn't land a rotation gig.
Recapping the Angels:
The arm to own: Garrett Richards
He's not for me: Ricky Nolasco
Best of the bullpen: Cam Bedrosian
Monitor his role: Alex Meyer
Oakland A's – There was a lot to like about Sonny Gray over his first couple of seasons with the A's, but things went horribly wrong last year. Some of it was bad luck, but more of it was poor pitching. The question is, did he lose it or are there nagging injuries (he spent time on the DL twice last year and is currently rehabbing a back injury that will result in him missing the first month of 2017)? I don't think he has been "right" physically for a long time, and I have to stay away until I am reasonably sure he is. As leery as I am of Gray, I am probably equally bullish on Sean Manaea. I'm always impressed when young pitchers with a solid skillset show they can adjust on the fly. Manaea did that over the course of last season. I expect another step forward. I'm not so excited about Kendall Graveman. With just modest stuff, he has a fairly limited ceiling. In deeper leagues he could be useful at the back of your rotation as he doesn't typically implode, but you need better at the top of your staff. Jharel Cotton does offer a higher ceiling so he might be worth pursuing. He won't likely match the gaudy peripherals from his brief coming out party late last year, but he throws strikes and has the ability to miss bats. Jesse Hahn, Raul Alcantara and Andrew Triggs will initially fill out the back of the A's rotation (better theirs than yours) as the team works to prep guys like A.J. Puk and Frankie Montas for the big leagues.
Last season, Ryan Madson was asked to close games and he logged 30 of them. That's not bad, but he also blew seven saves, and proved to be too hittable, too often. He'll probably begin this year in that role, but it may not last. He's better suited to a set-up role, and if Sean Doolittle is actually back to full health (he claims it's all behind him), he provides a viable alternative. The bullpen is deep bridging to the ninth with newcomer Santiago Casilla, versatile Liam Hendriks, veteran former lefty closer John Axford, and Ryan Dull. They probably won't get many save chances but they'll frequently get the game to whomever claims the ninth inning gig.
Recapping the A's:
The arm to own: Sean Manaea
He's not for me: Kendall Graveman
Best of the bullpen: Sean Doolittle
Monitor his role: Liam Hendricks
Seattle Mariners – Felix Hernandez is just 30, but he has now logged over 2,400 major league innings. That's a lot. He failed to pitch more than 200 innings in a season for the first time since 2008 last year (a calf injury put him on the DL) but even when healthy he wasn't the overwhelming force of past seasons. His velocity is down a tick and he's adjusting to overcome his waning dominance by being a bit more finesse oriented. He will probably be successful in that plan eventually. For now, he should still be a fairly functional fantasy workhorse as long as you don't pay an "ace" draft price. At age 35, Hisashi Iwakuma is already a finesse pitcher and he's experiencing a decline in productivity with declining strikeout rate, reduced velocity and more hard contact. Those aren't encouraging signs. He's still competent but only at a back-of-the-rotation price. Now for the good news. James Paxton may be about to put a nasty injury history in the past and that could mean paying the dividends many fantasy owners wrote off seasons ago. If he can stay healthy (and regularly hit his spots) he could be primed to take a huge step. I'm inclined to say it's coming. Drew Smyly may also have a step forward in mind, but he lacks the ceiling of Paxton so he's a bit less attractive. I used to follow the likely fifth starter pretty closely. It isn't that easy to chase me away once a pitcher catches my eye, but Yovani Gallardo has accomplished that. Maybe the change in scenery will help? If so, it will help an owner other than me. Chris Heston is around as an option, and sleeper fans might want to see where Ariel Miranda falls into the mix, but this staff lacks depth.
When an injury put Steve Cishek on the shelf last season, Edwin Diaz stepped into the closer's role and thrived. He left no questions. He probably won't see anything in the rearview mirror this year either. Diaz is a prime example of the gradually developing wave of young (he's just 23) closers. It takes some courage to hand the ball to a kid in the ninth inning, but when the kid has electric stuff including an upper 90s fastball, misses bats and does it with good mound presence, it's a bit easier. He's the real deal. Cishek, when healthy (often a concern) will join steady Nick Vincent, Casey Fien and Evan Scribner in later innings, all with the goal of getting the game to Diaz.
Recapping the Mariners:
The arm to own: James Paxton
He's not for me: Yovani Gallardo
Best of the bullpen: Edwin Diaz
Monitor his role: Angel Miranda
Texas Rangers – I don't often make awards predictions, but now I'm going to make an exception. I'm going to make Yu Darvish the favorite to win the AL Cy Young, and if he gets the ball every turn, I think he might notch more than 300 strikeouts. I could keep on gushing, but need I say more? Virtually every indicator I use in evaluating a pitcher points to the positive for Darvish. Follow him up with Cole Hamels, who may have the best changeup in the AL, and that's a pretty wicked one-two punch. Martin Perez isn't bad either, but I can't see him mentioned in the same conversation with the top two. A modest improvement in his command would help, but that might be wishful thinking. Here is where the Rangers' season becomes a bit cloudy. If both Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross can get and stay healthy, they could power into the postseason, however, if A.J. Griffin, a decent spot starter, or worse yet Eddie Gamboa or Chi Chi Gonzalez are rotation fixtures, they will need to rely far more heavily on a deep bullpen. Ross is the wildcard. He's another player coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and recovery can be difficult to gauge. He's not likely to return before May, even if all goes smoothly, but he fits well in Texas if he comes back strong. There's also potential help on the way in southpaw Yohander Mendez, but he really would benefit from more work against advanced hitters at the Triple-A level.
Sometimes being in the right place at the right time pays off. When Shawn Tolleson suffered an extended meltdown last year, Sam Dyson was healthy and pitching well, so he stepped in and did the job. He's a solid reliever, but he's an extreme groundball pitcher who pounds the bottom of the zone and doesn't log many punchouts – not really a true closer profile. That could leave the door open a crack, and the Rangers have a pretty impressive list of possible candidates. The top two on that list have histories of personal problems – never encouraging – but they also have a load of skill. Assuming they both behave, Jeremy Jeffress might get the first if Dyson falters (Jeffress saved 27 games for Milwaukee before coming to the Rangers last summer). He's intriguing, but the guy who really impressed me was Matt Bush. A former first round pick years ago as a shortstop, he's now 31 and just might be finding himself as a major league reliever. He displayed electric stuff (97-plus mph fastball), and maybe more importantly, maturity and composure on the mound last season. I'd like to see him get the chance to close. If that's not enough, they also have a nice kid named Keone Kela. He's got the tools too, but he has some people he'll need to pass if he wants to move up the food chain.
Recapping the Rangers:
The arm to own: Yu Darvish
He's not for me: Martin Perez
Best of the bullpen: Matt Bush
Monitor his role: Jeremy Jeffress
Next week we'll look at some nonclosers with key bullpen roles.
