This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, September 3
- Year-to-Date Record: 145-148-1
- Prior Article: 0-4 ( -4.5 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't submit your betting slip on the best sports betting sites without first consulting our MLB odds page.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Chicago White Sox 
at Baltimore Orioles 
This might be the worst pitching matchup all season with "Nasty" Nick Nastrini against Cade Povich. Their combined ERA is 13.62. The Orioles put up 13 runs Monday night.
The concern here is whether or not the White Sox can put up enough runs to help cover the 8.5 over, but with Povich's numbers lately, I will take a shot. There have been 52 runs in the five games they have played each other.
Both pitchers have below-average strikeout rates and above-average walk rates, so if someone gets a hold of one there is a good chance runners will be on to help boost the scoring. We also have that trusty White Sox bullpen that should give up a few runs.
MLB Picks for White Sox at Orioles
- White Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5 Runs for 1.5 Units (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at San Francisco Giants 
Ryne Nelson has become one of "my guys" in the last two months. I will continue to ride him on the road against the Giants. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in his starts since July 7th and his numbers since then have been where the turnaround started.
In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least five innings in all of them with with starts going at least six innings. He has a 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 in that stretch.
Kyle Harrison has much better splits at home, which is expected in the most extreme pitchers' park, but the Diamondbacks crush lefties as well with a 119 wRC+ against them in the last month.
Arizona continues to rake on offense with the best wRC+ since August 1st (135).
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Giants
- Diamondbacks ML for 1 Unit (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
The Brewers are the surprise team of baseball as they traded away starting pitching and suffered some key injuries but it has been their offense that has carried them, especially against right-handed pitching. They do not get a righty tonight, but they do get a weaker left-hander in Steven Matz. Milwaukee is only 17-20 against lefties, but 41-25 at home.
Aaron Civale has been better in his last four starts with a 1.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
I am going to ride the better team that is playing solid baseball with a strong run toward the playoffs.
- Brewers -1.5 for 1 Unit (+150 BetMGM)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- White Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5 Runs for 1.5 Units (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Diamondbacks ML for 1 Unit (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Brewers -1.5 for 1 Unit (+150 BetMGM)
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