MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Sunday, July 2

MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Sunday, July 2

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks: MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Sunday, July 2

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Washington Nationals were just embarrassed by the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday in a 19-4 loss. It probably won't happen again on Sunday, but I'm focusing on a few prop bets in this contest.

Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas may be one of the most underappreciated players in the game right now. Rarely seen as the headliner of a cast, but always putting on a solid performance; like the John Turturro of baseball.

If you had to guess Thomas' numbers this season, would you say a .303 average with 14 home runs and 44 RBI? Because that's exactly how well he's done. Not to forget, that he is currently in a 23-for-61 (.377) stretch over his last 15 games and has produced a blistering .396/.445/.703 slash line against lefties. That's a 1.014 OPS against southpaws.

The Phillies send lefty Ranger Suarez to the hill on Sunday, and that bodes well for Mr. Thomas, who is 6-for-14 (.429) against the aforementioned Suarez, too.

Also, guess which player in this matchup is in the Top-10 in the National League in runs scored? Give up? It's Lane Thomas.

The Phillies have a pretty steep moneyline of -250, so I'll avoid picking any winner in this one and just shove all my chips in the middle on Lane Thomas.

MLB Best Props for Nationals at Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Now, a 43-year old lefthanded pitcher with a mid-to-high 80s fastball may not be that imposing, but Pittsburgh's Rich Hill can get the job done here. Hill has done just fine against some of these Milwaukee bats in the past, most notably Willy Adames, who's gone hitless in seven career at-bats against the old man.

Hill posted a 3.86 ERA in the month of June, his best month of run prevention in 2023, and will square up against a Brewers team that is not good at hitting lefties. Actually, the Brew Crew are dead last in the MLB with a .215 batting average against left-handers. If only Milwaukee had Lane Thomas.

To get a win, Hill will need some run support.

Corbin Burnes did fire five perfect innings against the Bucs last night, but the Pirates offense woke up in the sixth, posting two runs, then were wide awake and making noise in the eighth inning, scoring six more. The Bucs can carry over that offense into Sunday against Colin Rea.

Pittsburgh has shown an ability to string together hits, especially in their previous series sweep over the San Diego Padres with 16 hits in game one, nine hits in game two, and 10 hits in game three. The Pirates also recorded 11 hits in game one of their current series against Milwaukee and picked up seven hits from the sixth inning on yesterday. 

Since last Sunday, only one team in baseball has hit .300 as a team, and that team is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Give me the old lefty against the team that can't touch lefties, and the squad that's actually hitting.

MLB Best Bet for Brewers at Pirates

  • Pirates moneyline (-102 FanDuel)

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have scored more runs than any team in baseball this season (486) and are averaging a league-best 5.93 runs per game. The Rangers' ridiculously good offense will be well represented in Seattle at the All-Star Game, too, as catcher Jonah Heim (.285, 12 HR, 56 RBI), second baseman Marcus Semien (.287, 11 HR, 56 RBI), third baseman Josh Jung (.274, 17 HR, 50 RBI) and shortstop Corey Seager (.348, 10 HR, 49 RBI) were named starters for the Midsummer Classic. An offense so good that people may have forgotten about Adolis Garcia (.262, 20 HR, 66 RBI), or Nathaniel Lowe (.272, 8 HR, 43 RBI), or Ezequiel Duran (.314, 12 HR, 34 RBI) or even Leody Taveras (.296, 9 HR, 36 RBI).

Facing off against this very deep Texas lineup on Sunday afternoon will be Astros' starter Shawn Dubin, who will be in deep.

Dubin, who currently has a 10.80 ERA in just five miserable innings this season also posted a 7.96 ERA in 26 more miserable innings in the Pacific Coast League; that's Triple-A baseball. Yes, the Pacific coast league is a hitter-friendly league, but you know what else is hitter-friendly? The Texas Rangers.

A wildly struggling pitcher against roughly one half of the American League All-Star team has to be a recipe for disaster.

MLB Best Bet for Astros at Rangers

  • Rangers -1.5 runline (+152 FanDuel)

Best MLB Bets Today Recap

  • Lane Thomas OVER 1.5 Hits (+260 FanDuel)
  • Lane Thomas OVER 0.5 Runs Scored (-105 FanDuel)
  • Pirates moneyline (-102 FanDuel)
  • Rangers -1.5 runline (+152 FanDuel)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Thomas Snodgrass
Thomas is a former RotoWire contributor. He is a Chicago-based writer and bettor that has contributed to multiple sports betting publications, formerly working alongside BetQL, FanSided, and BetSided. He is a fan of sports statistics and the detailed stories behind the numbers.
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