This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
We had a winning day snatched away from us on Tuesday when Baltimore's Yennier Cano could not hold on to the Orioles' 3-2 lead in the ninth, costing us the moneyline victory. Thankfully, it wasn't a complete implosion, as the under remained intact to keep the day from being a total loss. Still, I feel very good about my July run and today brings a solid menu to choose from. One game stands out above the rest today, and that is a game involving a pair of division leaders that are connected to a single city that sits on the shore of Lake Michigan.
Milwaukee Brewers at 
Atlanta Braves
In this battle between teams that used to and currently reside in Milwaukee, the Brewers send Adrian Houser to the hill while Atlanta counters with Yonny Chirinos. Houser hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any appearance since June 9, including his last start where he struck out 10 Braves over six innings. In that start, his only blemish came in the form of an Austin Riley three-run homer. Riley's home run is one of only two Houser has given up to current Braves batters over 65 at-bats (Eddie Rosario has the other). The Brewers come into this one in excellent form with a 6-4 record over their last 10 games while Atlanta is scuffling out of the break with a 3-7 record in its last 10 while being outscored by 16 runs. The Brewers are 28-22 on the road and have a 21-10 record in games when they do not allow a home run. With this value and Houser's current form and career numbers against the Braves, this live dog is my top play today.
MLB Best Bet: Brewers ML (+150) @ DraftKings
As noted above, Houser has had success against the Braves while no current Brewer has logged an AB against Chirinos. Chirinos doesn't have great numbers and he doesn't go deep into games, but he's had only one start that could be considered a true blow-up, which means he is keeping his team in games. The Brewers haven't played in a game that eclipsed this total since July 9 (13 games), while the last five contests involving Atlanta have not gone over this total. With the relative success of both pitchers and the recent lack of offensive firepower from both teams, the under stands out as another solid play from this game.
MLB Best Bet: MIL/ATL UNDER 10 (+105) @ DraftKings
Today's player prop bet will be centered around the aforementioned Riley, who is on a heater right now. He's gone 13-for-41 with six homers over his last 10 games and he is one of the few Braves who can boast some success against Houser. I could see any number of his props hitting (HR at +420, 2+ Hits at +185), but I'm going to go with his total bases prop. I don't recommend many selections on the favorite side, especially not player props, but I see value on this one. Officially, the play will be on over 1.5 bases at -120, but if you are able to find alternate total-base lines at + money, I'd be willing to go to 2.5 and might even consider 3.5 if the price is right.
MLB Best Bet: Austin Riley Total Bases OVER 1.5 (-120) @ DraftKings
Brewers/Braves Game Focus Picks for Friday, July 28:
Here's a recap of my Game Focus selections for Friday, July 28:
- Brewers ML (+150) @ DraftKings
- Brewers/Braves UNDER 10 (+105) @ DraftKings
- Austin Riley Total Bases OVER 1.5 (-120) @ DraftKings
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.
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