MLB Picks: Phillies @ Braves Best Bets for Monday, Oct. 9

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Published on October 9, 2023

MLB Picks: Phillies @ Braves Best Bets for
Monday, Oct. 9

Overall MLB Record: 30-39, +.36 units

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Last week, I whiffed on the D-Backs' destruction of the Brewers, but did salvage the player prop on Carlos Santana to minimize the damage. Today, I head down to Atlanta, where the Braves, just like every other home playoff favorite so far this year, find themselves down 1-0 against a red-hot opponent. I'm fired up to have the opportunity to dive into at least one game of this series as it is an amazing, exciting and intense matchup between bitter NL East rivals.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Down 0-1, the Braves send out their best, Max Fried, against the scorching-hot Phillies and Zack Wheeler. The Phils "stole" Game 1 with a spot start from Ranger Suarez and a rock-solid bullpen, beating Spencer Strider in the process. Being desperate for a win doesn't always translate into a win, but we are talking about, statistically, the best lineup we've seen in a generation coming off a shutout. Any rust and jitters are gone now. It's time to go out and hit. The Atlanta bats have seen plenty of Zack Wheeler over the years, so there will be no surprises. Only Travis d'Arnaud has a career OPS over 1 against Wheeler, but that doesn't mean the Braves haven't hit him hard. Together, the Braves are hitting just .218 (57- 261) against Wheeler, but 28 of those 57 hits have been for extra bases, including 12 dingers. I love betting on teams off a shutout in general. I'm certainly betting on one of the best lineups in history off of one.

MLB Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (+136) @ FanDuel

While I do see the Atlanta bats waking up and leading them to victory, I don't think this will be a fireworks display. Fried has been lights out in September and comes into the playoffs fresh with only 81 innings under his belt thanks to a three-month recovery from a strained forearm during the regular season. Fried has attributed some of his postseason failures (2-4, 4.43 ERA) to wearing down during the regular season, so I expect more from him tonight. Wheeler is no slouch by any stretch and will do enough to keep his team in the game. I see the Braves pulling away late for a 5-1 victory, putting the value on the under.

MLB Best Bet: Phillies/Braves UNDER 8 (+105) @ BetMGM

Austin Riley had recorded two or more total bases in three of his last four games coming into Game 1, where he went 1-4 with a single. I like the fact he wasn't completely shut out in Game 1. I also like that Riley has had good success against Wheeler in his career (.270 avg, .794 OPS, 6 XBH). And I really like that he has one more click of value over Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna for the same prop. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson get most of the pub for this lineup, but Riley is the consistent glue that holds it together. If this game falls into place as I see it, he will be a big part of it.

MLB Best Bet: Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135) @ BetMGM

Phillies/Braves Game Focus Best Bets:

Here's a recap of my MLB Game Focus Best Bets for Monday, Oct. 9:

Braves -1.5 (+136) @ FanDuel
Phillies/Braves UNDER 8 (+105) @ BetMGM
Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+135) @ BetMGM

For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.