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MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, June 23
Happy Sunday! You stay classy, San Diego.
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Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
What a day for baseball in always-beautiful San Diego. We have the somewhat-surprising Brewers, leaders of the NL Central, facing a Padres team that sits firmly in the mix for one of the NL Wild Card spots.
Tobias Myers gets the ball for the Brewers. The 25-year-old rookie has bounced around to his sixth organization since the Orioles drafted him in 2016 and was on virtually no one's radar to even make the Brewers' rotation, much less shine. But excel he has with a 4-2 record, 1.13 WHIP and 3.26 ERA. There is very little in the profile beyond Brewers' Devil Magic with pitchers to suggest he can sustain this, except he has done it so far. His 22.3-percent K% and 8.5-percent BB% marks scream ordinary, as do his batted-ball metrics. His xERA pegs him at 4.28 and SIERA at 4.13. Myers has pitched particularly well in his last three starts, going a combined 20.1 IP and yielding just one run, eight hits and six walks vs. 15 Ks and winning all three.
The Brewers' offense has mixed and matched its way to a nice season, with a 107 wRC+ that ranks 10th in MLB. Catcher William Contreras has tailed off a bit lately but his overall body of work has gotten him in the MVP conversation with a .348 wOBA and .293 Avg. Brice Turang (.296 Avg, 26 steals), Willy Adames (.358 wOBA, 13 homers) and Christian Yelich (.355 wOBA, .319 Avg) also have delivered.
The Padres counter with Michael King, their prize from the Juan Soto trade. The converted reliever has had his choppy moments, but the Friars will take his 3.49 overall ERA in 87 innings of work. His stuff has not played down much with the move to regular starter, with a 27-percent K% pretty much matching his career levels. He yields a low 30.8-percent HardHit% on just 85.9 EV. King has gotten a bit unlucky with the long ball, as opponents have hit 13 homers on just 15 barrels as Petco Park has surprisingly become a bit of a hitter's park in 2024; at least as far as the long ball is concerned.
The Padres overall have the fourth-best offense in MLB this season with a 113 wRC+, somehow led by Jurickson Profar. At one time the top prospect in baseball, Profar has had a career year in 2024 at age 31, slashing .320/.415/.483 with 10 homers. He sat last night but should play today. Fernando Tatis Jr. also sat and is a bit more iffy to go. While not exploding so far, he still leads the team with 14 homers and a .400 wOBA.
Rookie Jackson Merrill has caught fire recently and should make up any slack if Tatis and/or Profar cannot go. The 21-year-old phenom has hit seven homers in June with a whopping .315/.351/.658 triple slash. Quite the run for a kid jumping from Double-A straight to MLB and learning a completely new position on the fly.
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The Pick
F5 Over 4.5 +100, Caesars
While both starters have pitched well, I like the offenses to come alive this afternoon. Both teams have eaten up righties this season, with the Padres checking in at 122 wRC+ that ranks second in MLB, and the Brewers not far behind at +114 and fifth. They have also cashed tickets for Over bettors. Padres F5 overs have gone 33-20 for a 19-percent ROI, while the Brew Crew is even better at 37-22, 20.3-percent ROI. San Diego also excels on the Over during daylight, going 26-15, 21.9-percent ROI, as does Milwaukee to a lesser extent at 20-14, 13.1-percent ROI. Lets get some runs!
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