This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Red Sox at Orioles for Thursday, August 15
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It isn't often a game goes exactly as forecasted, but when it does, it sure feels good. We experienced that last week when the Angels not only won as +210 underdogs, but they stayed under the 8.5 total. And, best of all, Tyler Anderson covered 4.5, 5.0, 5.5, 6.0 and 6.5 strikeouts when he struck out seven Yankees, just as advised. I hope a bunch of you were feeling froggy on that strikeout prop and recorded a heckuva day. Even if you stuck with the three picks listed here, we added 4.18 units to our wallets, moving the season record to 15-12 for +7.48 units on the year. Let's jump right back on the horse with the start of a huge four-game series in the American League East.
Red Sox at Orioles Best Bets
Today, we head to second-place Baltimore as third-place Boston rolls into town. The biggest thing that spoke to me about this game is the disparity in the success of the two starting pitchers against the opposing lineups. Boston's Nick Pivetta has fared decently against the Orioles bats in his career while Baltimore's Zach Eflin has struggled against Red Sox bats. Pivetta also seems quite comfortable on the road; excluding a disastrous outing in Denver, Pivetta has given up just two earned runs over his last four road starts, covering 17.2 innings. Two of those starts came at Texas and at the Dodgers, both formidable lineups. Eflin has pitched well of late, but Boston has hit him hard with Rafael Devers leading the way with a 1.615 OPS in 13 at-bats. From a starting pitching perspective, the value is on the underdogs, which is exactly the way I like it.
MLB Pick for Red Sox at Orioles
- Red Sox ML (+124 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
The total of 8.5 is a bit tricky to navigate tonight. Those who read this spot regularly know I very much dislike taking favorites in MLB, but this looks to be the exception. Games involving the Red Sox have gone over this total in 12 straight games with many of them being not even close. Nine of Baltimore's last 13 games have gone over this total as well, and with Eflin's struggles against the BoSox outlined above, the over is the only choice tonight.
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MLB Pick for Red Sox at Orioles
- BOS/BAL OVER 8.5 Runs (-110 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
Today's player prop is going to remind folks a lot of last week's. After considering Masataka Yoshida's hot hitting in August, I simply couldn't avoid Nick Pivetta's strikeout total. At 5.5, it jumped off the page. Over his last six starts (including the rough one against the Rockies on July 24), Pivetta has averaged nine strikeouts. Only one of those six starts fell under this total. Once again, I'd advise a full unit on the over at 5.5, 6.0 and 6.5 as well as half units on 7.0 and 7.5. Given his average, I might even dabble at 8.0 and 8.5, if I can find it. Don't get greedy after last week, but if your bankroll can handle it, this could be another one to have some fun with.
MLB Player Prop for Red Sox at Orioles
- Nick Pivetta OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Red Sox ML (+124 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
- BOS/BAL OVER 8.5 Runs (-110 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Nick Pivetta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts +110 (@ FanDuel Sportsbook)
