This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
NLCS Game 1 Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Sunday, October 13
- Year-to-Date Record: 177-174
- Prior Article: 2-0 (+2.0 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Before visiting the best online sportsbooks and placing your wagers, make a quick stop first to our MLB odds page for the latest odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
New York Mets 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
The National League Championship Series (NLCS) gets underway Sunday night between the Mets and the Dodgers. The Dodgers were expected to be here with a record of 62-41 since June 1st, while the Mets have been the best team in baseball since June 1st with a record of 65-40 after starting 24-40.
The Mets defeated the Brewers and Phillies as the sixth seed to get here and have a look and feel of a team of destiny. They have a solid roster from top to bottom, which is what you need to win a World Series. The Dodgers are a team of superstars and role players that could be challenged in a longer series.
Game 1 sees Kodai Senga face Jack Flaherty. Senga is probably only good for 2-3 innings max, with David Peterson expected to be the next pitcher after him. Flaherty came to the Dodgers from the Tigers at the trade deadline as ironically the Tigers were "out" of the playoff hunt at the time. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts along with giving up five home runs.
The Mets come in with extra rest even with them having to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast – an advantage in Game 1. Freddie Freeman is still battling an ankle injury and is not 100 percent. Jesse Winker has strong BVP numbers against Flaherty, going 8-for-21 with two home runs. He should hit sixth in the lineup and is a candidate for a platoon pinch hit, but I'm hoping he gets at least two at-bats against Flaherty.
Game 1 looks to be a great shot for the Mets to steal one as they should be able to get to Flaherty and then rely on the bullpen. I have this projected 5-4 Mets. I'm only going with an F5 wager on the Mets Moneyline because of the edge against Flaherty.
Best MLB Picks for Mets at Dodgers
- Mets ML F5 for 1 Unit (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mets Over 1.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jesse Winker Over 0.5 Total Bases for 1 Unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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