This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures: NL Cy Young, AL Cy Young, NL MVP and AL MVP Odds Update
Summer is nearly here, roughly 30% of the MLB season has already passed -- hard to believe! The awards betting markets have heated up big time, and we have some clear favorites emerging. Let's take a look at where we stand vs how the markets have changed since the cusp of the season.
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NL Cy Young
Current NL Cy Young odds as of May 23
And the current top 10, before the season started
Spencer Strider actually opened as the favorite in the +500 range, but unfortunately he only made two starts before elbow troubles shelved him for the season.
Ranger Suarez (+550) came into the season as a mid-rotation Phillies starter who has had his moments but few besides Phil Dussault, aka "The Robot" saw anything like this coming. The lefty has started the season 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA, nearly fully backed by a 2.31 xERA and 2.77 SIERA. He has a career-high 26.5% K% and career-low 4.6% BB% while simultaneously controlling contact fantastically well with a 84.1 EV, 28.4% HardHit% and 4.7% Barrel%. Even allowing for some regression he has already banked crazy good numbers.
Shota Imanaga has had the 2nd largest jump on the board and sits a shade ahead of Suarez at +400. The 30-year-old "rookie" by way of the NPB has pitched to a 0.84 ERA in his first nine outings, the best start to a career since 1913. His 27.8% K% and 4.3% BB% look very similar to Suarez. Summer heat and wind fluctuations at Wrigley might catch up to him over time but again like Suarez, the booked stats still count.
My favorite play on the board is Chris Sale at +1200, up from +3500 to start the year. Sale often pitches like an ace when he can actually stay on the hill. So far so great in 2024 as he has remained healthy and gone 7-1 in Atlanta with a 2.22 ERA, 2.50 xERA and 2.41 SIERA. Sale has already booked 56.2 innings this year after totaling just 151 innings total from 2020-2023. His fastball velo of 94.5 is in line with career highs and his SwStrk% of 15.5% would be his best since 2018. No biking, please!
AL Cy Young
Current AL Cy Young odds as of May 23
And from before the season
Tarik Skubal (6-0, 1.80 ERA, 31.6% K%, 3.8% BB%) rightly sits as the heavy favorite. Barring an injury, he has a great shot to just run away with this award. Preseason favorite Gerrit Cole has yet to pitch. Corbin Burnes has done nothing to disappoint in Baltimore with a 4-2 record and 2.56 ERA, 2.83 xERA 3.24 SIERA, and has seen his odds shorten from +670 to +400. He just has not matched Skubal.
Really tough to make a case for anyone else on the board now. I do have a George Kirby ticket at essentially this level (+2800) and still kind of like him here at +2500, even though he has not improved much in the 3+ weeks since I "bought". He sits at 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA while his ERA estimators xERA of 3.38 and SIERA 3.32 suggest he has pitched a shade better. He has an insanely low 2.2% BB%, consistent with his career norms. His 23% sits close to league-average so he needs good fortune on batted balls to succeed. In 2024, that will likely mean lowering the 17.4 LA he has allowed so far, especially as the weather heats up.
NL MVP
Current NL MVP odds as of May 23
And then
Incredible kudos to anyone holding a William Contreras +9800 ticket! The Brewers catcher has gotten off to a blazing .332/.407/.524 start at the plate while playing good defense at catcher. Alec Bohm has posted a similar 330/.389/.528 line, with 42 RBI, and even bigger odds shortening, from +14000 to +1500. He came into the league as a weak defender at 3B but, to his credit, has improved big time to where now he ranks as a plus there. Both players may suffer from not producing standout numbers in some other counting stats. Bohm has just two homers and five steals, while Contreras has seven and three.
On the other hand, quirks of the leaderboard could benefit them as the two leaders, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, are teammates and could theoretically split the Dodger vote. Of course, Bryce Harper (.273/.380/.509, 10 homers) could eat into Bohm's Phillies vote too, though for now, Bohm has clearly hit better.
Ohtani leads qualified hitters with a .353 AVG, .653 SLG and .484 wOBA, with 13 homers and 11 steals already. He will not pitch this season or likely play in the field much if at all. Does that matter when you hit this well? Perhaps not, but Betts at .335/.432/.546 with eight homers, eight steals and league-average defense while moving from the outfield to SS and 2B makes a compelling case. As long as his numbers remain close to Ohtani's, he should get the nod.
As to the field, I have some interest in Elly de la Cruz at +1500, though I would need longer odds. He has 30 steals already and may get to 100, but to do so he will need to keep getting on base. His .352 OBP and 11.4% BB% look nice, but his 32.6% K% is a tad worrisome to say the least.
AL MVP
Current AL MVP odds as of May 23
And then
The marriage of Juan Soto to the Yankees looked fantastic on paper and even better in actuality. He has mashed to a .316/.415/.551 slash line that his career numbers suggest is sustainable. His teammate, Aaron Judge, got off to a slow start by Aaron Judge standards, but has exploded since May 5th with 21 barrels on just 37 balls in play. Yes, his Barrel% on that admittedly small sample is 56.8%. He "only" has turned that into 7 homers. Overall Judge has hit 13 bombs, with a .271 and 32 RBI's, so good but not spectacular. Even Judge can not maintain this crazy heater, so he feels a bit overpriced.
I have a Gunnar Henderson +850 ticket, and still like him at +500. He has triple-slashed .271/.351/.610 with a league-leading 16 homers paired with seven steals. Not to mention he has provided premium SS defense. I also like and will now buy a Kyle Tucker ticket at +850. King Tuck has a very similar .288/.421/ .618 line with 15 homers and 9 steals, just minus the defensive value as he rates as league average in Right Field.
