This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting: Division Winners, Pennant Winners, and World Series Prediction
I went through the 2024 MLB season awards last week. Now, it's time to do the breakdowns of teams. Personally, I feel like this year is wide open across the board in terms of awards, divisions, and World Series etc. Let's go under the hood.
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American League
MLB Futures awards, including World Series odds, AL Champion odds, NL Champion odds and MLB Division odds are available and constantly updated here at RotoWire.
AL East Winner: Baltimore Orioles (+200)
The case has been for a while that this division has been the best in MLB. It's not exactly incorrect. It's also not incorrect to say the team with the most promise is the Orioles. After becoming the baseball version of the Philadelphia 76ers and tanking for what feels like three decades, they finally put together a winning team with elite young talent.
For a team that won 101 games a season ago (and the division), it's hard to imagine they top it in 2024. I think they're just starting to scratch the surface. With Corbin Burnes anchoring the rotation, Jackson Holliday coming up in the near future, and weak spots among the rest of the other teams, the AL East should once again run through Camden Yards.
AL Central Winner: Minnesota Twins (-115)
The regarded weakest division in the sport is on the rise. While 2024 may not be the year the massive overhaul happens, it's definitely coming within the next two years. Until that happens, the Twins are by far the most talented and complete team in the AL Central. Good pitching front to back and a strong lineup is a good combination to ensure Minnesota wins this title for the second straight year.
The popular team to push Minny is definitely Detroit, and it's not a crazy thought, especially for the nice +380 price. However, I see the Tigers as one of those teams that's about two years away from really contending. It's certainly Minnesota's division to lose.
AL West Winner: Texas Rangers (+230)
Is anybody else sick of the Houston Astros? They're a great team no doubt, but after winning the AL West for three straight years, it's time for some new blood. The Mariners were my darling team last season to win the division and the World Series, but I ended up picking the wrong team in this division.
The lineup questions for Seattle outside of Julio Rodriguez turned me off of them in 2024, so it really comes down to Houston and Texas. The reigning World Champs are catching too good of a price here, so it's a direction I feel comfortable with. The pitching is something of an unknown at the moment, but I would think some midseason acquisitions are on the table. The offense is going to be a terror this season, so if this pitching is decent, then Texas will win a lot of games. Wyatt Langford TO THE MOON!
AL Champion: Baltimore Orioles (+650)
The AL is top-heavy this season. In my opinion, there are really only three or four teams that can likely win the AL Pennant (Baltimore, Texas, Houston, Seattle). The O's had their shot last season against the Rangers, but couldn't execute in the critical situational moments. Maybe this year is different. The pickup of Corbin "Corb Daddy" Burnes is the deciding factor for me. Before that, I had the O's finishing in a similar fashion as 2023.
It's almost impossible to win a World Series, or even a pennant, without a legit ace. The one noticeable hole at the moment for Balty is their star closer, Felix Bautista, is on the shelf after getting Tommy John surgery. That will certainly need to be addressed. The O's definitely have the firepower to make a run.
AL Wild Cards: Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, New York Yankees
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The National League
NL East Winner: Atlanta Braves (-240)
I am not advising you to lay this number for a division winner. I'm just saying who I think wins. The Braves are a juggernaut after winning 104 games last year and 101 in 2022. They have won the NL East six years straight dating back to 2018. This is their division.
ATL likely has the best offense in baseball to go along with great pitching. There's a good chance we see them rack up 100+ wins yet again. While there is intrigue about the Phillies at +310, there are not many scenarios that see the Bravos lose the NL East. And if Atlanta brings up their star pitcher from AAA, Hurston Waldrep, then everybody else should be very concerned.
NL Central Winner: Cincinnati Reds (+400)
I believe this number has shortened over the last month or so, which makes sense. There's been a lot of preseason hype on Cincy, something I am not usually a fan of. For me, the belief started last year. Once I saw the Reds fade in the second half after a hot start, I told myself they're a year too early. 2024 is when they can make the leap. Although the injury and bad luck bug has bitten hard this offseason, I still like the Reds to make a run this year. 4/1 is too long for a team with one of the highest ceilings in the sport.
There are a lot of "ifs" with this team, but even if half of those "ifs" pan out, then they will be a deadly force. Breaking down the rest of the NL Central, the Cardinals don't have the pitching, the Pirates are too young, and the Brewers are just brutal. It really comes down between Cincy and Chicago.
I like the Cubs, but I have questions about their lineup and their starting staff behind Justin Steele. They signed some "ifs" as well. What will be curious to me is if we see some of Chicago's big prospects this year, like my guy Cade Horton and Pete Crow-Armstrong etc. The Reds need Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz, and Nick Lodolo to make the leap.
NL West Winner: LA Dodgers (-450)
Like the Braves, I am not telling you to bet this, it's just my honest opinion on who I think wins. I will say that catching Arizona at +1000 for the division is somewhat appealing for a sprinkle. LAD is too loaded. They spend a billion dollars in an offseason like Queen Latifah in Last Holiday, which is a great effing movie by the way.
The Dodgers could completely suck and still win 95 games this season. The roster is loaded on both sides of the ball, it would be a spectacular letdown if they lost the NL West.
NL Champion: Cincinnati Reds (+2700)
Honestly, almost everybody has the same World Series matchup. I'm not being different just to be different. I think there is a chance Cincy can make the jump in 2024. At the end of the day, they would need to go through at least one of the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies. Maybe even two of them.
If these guys play to their ceilings, then I think they are capable of beating anyone. There's a lot of firepower on both the big league and minors rosters. Based on how we've seen LAD and ATL collapse in the postseason, there is the possibility of somebody else emerging.
After the Shohei Ohtani signing to LA, I tweeted that the Reds would bounce them in the NLDS, and I am sticking to it. It's a little bold, but so was the Diamondbacks making it to the World Series. And by the way, Cincy has the second pick in this summer's draft, which has some ELITE talent. You never know if one of these dudes gets a September call-up.
NL Wild Cards: Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
A brief explanation of the Washington theory. I have spoken about this as a longshot over the last few months. At 17/1, it's not crazy to think they can steal the last wild card spot. In all likelihood, the sixth spot comes down to the Cubs, Marlins, and maybe the Padres.
Washington has a lot of stars coming through the minors. I expect Dylan Crews and James Wood to make an appearance at some point. The rotation has a strong 1-2-3 punch with Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli (returning from Tommy John). My path for the Nats is to get third place in the NL East, that's how Miami made it last season. If they do that, then we may see DC in the postseason. I'm telling you now, the Nationals are going to be a big problem in the next couple of years.
World Series: Cincinnati Reds (+5500) over Baltimore Orioles (+24000) exact result
It sounds crazy on paper, but I'm all in on Cincy this season. Their resurrection is coming, and it very well may be in 2024. They're a high-variance team, and for the price of 55/1, it's certainly a great bargain to think the lowly Reds could emerge out of "nowhere." I'm calling my shot.
