MLB Expert Picks, Player Props and Predictions for June 7

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Published on June 7, 2024

MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, June 7

The MLB world community takes on an international flavor when the Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets at London Stadium in London on Saturday and Sunday. This will be the third edition of the London series and is set to start at 1:10 ET, which will be 6:10 local time in London. Sunday's matchup will start at 10:10 AM ET between the two storied NL East rivals.

The betting odds are going to feature higher totals than you might expect, especially in the Saturday matchup featuring the Phillies' Ranger Suarez (9-1, 1.70 ERA) and the Mets Sean Manaea (3-2, 3.63 ERA). The totals will be comparable to a game played at Coors Field so be cautious with these games because there is a small amount of data to go on. The previous four games played in 2019 and 2023 saw a minimum of 10 runs scored, with the 2019 edition between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox scoring a combined 50 runs in the two games.

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The Best Bets for the Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Two NL East rivals will continue their four-game series with the second game set to start at 6:45 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The Braves won the first game 5-2 behind Marcell Ozuna's NL-leading 18th home run, part of a three-run eighth inning. The Nationals started the scoring with two 400-foot plus home runs by CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas in the sixth inning.

The betting market currently has the Braves priced as 210 favorites with a posted total of 7.5 runs. The –1.5 run line is priced at –120 if you think the Braves will win by 2.0 or more runs.

The Braves find themselves trailing the NL-leading Phillies by 7.5 games and the Nationals are 16.5 games behind the leader.

The Nationals are 27-34, averaging a 147-underdog bet resulting in a 9.1 percent ROI and making a $762 profit for the $100-per-game bettor. The Nationals have been much better on the road than at home this season. At home, they have gone a miserable 10-17, averaging a 138-underdog wager resulting in a money-losing 13 percent ROI and a $344 loss for the $100 bettor. They are 17-17 in road games, averaging a 162-underdog bet for a tasty 26 percent ROI and a $1,147 profit for the $100-per-game bettor.

Despite being 10 games over .500 at 35-25, betting on the Braves has lost money. For the season they have averaged a –175 wager resulting in a –4.5 percent ROI which reflects why betting on significant favorites is not a sound strategy for profits in MLB betting throughout a season. When facing a divisional opponent they have gone just 12-8 averaging a –183 wager for a –6 percent ROI and a $208 loss for the $100 bettor.

Who Are the Starters?

The Braves' Chris Sale is on the hill tonight and he has posted an 8-1 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 67.2 innings of work. His control has been quite good, recording 82 strikeouts and 10 walks for an 8.2 K-BB ratio. After winning seven straight starts that featured six quality starts, he was hammered in his last start, allowing eight ER on nine hits in a no-decision, but the Braves lost11-9 to the Oakland Athletics.

The Nationals will turn to right-hander Jake Irvin, who is 3-5 in 12 starts with a solid 3.39 ERA and a 1.029 WHIP, including 60 strikeouts and 12 walks for a 5.0 K-BB ratio. He has pitched his best over his last three starts, posting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.818 WHIP including 22 strikeouts and just three walks. He has pitched at least 6.0 innings in five of his last seven starts.

The MLB Betting Algorithm for Friday

The following MLB betting algorithm is just one of more than 5,000 that I have developed over the years but is one of the best and most profitable ones. It has produced a remarkable 27-32 (46 percent) record averaging a 200-underdog wager resulting in a highly profitable 35 percent ROI and a $2,450 profit for the $100 bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

Bet on home underdogs of 175 and higher using the moneyline.
Our dog has a starter that has allowed 5.5 or fewer hits per start in the current season.
That starter has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last two starts.

If our underdog is on a two-or-more-game losing streak they have gone 8-9 (47 percent), averaging a 205-underdog wager for a robust 38 percent ROI and a significant $720 profit for the $100 bettor.

My Best Bet for Friday is on the Nationals priced as 205-underdog using the moneyline.

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The Pizza Money Player Props

Bet the Nationals' CJ Abrams to get a hit priced at –165.
Bet the Nationals' CJ Abrams to record 1.0 or more total bases priced at –155.
- CJ Abrams had two hits ,including a double in each of the last two games following a game in which he hit a home run.
Bet the Yankees' Cody Poteet to record 4.0 or more strikeouts priced at –134.
Bet the Pirates' Mitch Keller to record 6.0 or more strikeouts priced at –125.
Bet the Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run priced at +240.

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