This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Wednesday, September 18
- Year-to-Date Record: 158-158-1
- Prior Article: 3-0 ( +2.88 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Grab the latest MLB odds before hitting up the best online sportsbooks.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Texas Rangers 
Bowden Francis has been a top-15 pitcher since August 1st, but some of the underlying numbers show regression is coming. He has a 100 percent strand rate and 1.50 ERA against a 3.44 FIP. That being said, I still like him in this spot as a road dog against Cody Bradford and the Texas Rangers.
Bradford has pitched decent and ranks 36th in WAR for starting pitchers since August 1st, but he got lit up against the Diamondbacks in his last start for eight runs in 3.2 innings. Arizona has been one of the best offenses in baseball this year, so there is some forgiveness.
Francis has had some luck on his side, but he does not walk batters, which helps his perfect strand rate.
MLB Picks for Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
- Blue Jays ML for 1 Unit (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at St. Louis Cardinals 
I am a huge proponent of using home/road splits to find value in baseball lines. We get that with Sonny Gray who has been huge at home this year. Check out his splits:
- Home: 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9
- Road: 5.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.0 HR/9
The home runs allowed are the biggest reason for the huge split. It has been significant as Gray has had games at Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Minnesota where he allowed 12 home runs combined.
The Pirates are one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball and Jake Woodford has been one of the worst pitchers with a 8.01 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
This is an instance where I did look at Cardinals -0.5 F5, but it was -135, which I thought was a little too rich, so I locked in on the full game -1.5.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Cardinals
- Cardinals -1.5 for 1 Unit (+112 BetRivers)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have a 67-41 record against right-handed pitchers and are 43-30 at home. Aaron Nola has struggled recently but he has also historically been a much better pitcher at home than on the road.
His 2024 split data is a 3.31 ERA/1.07 WHIP at home versus a 4.00 ERA/1.34 WHIP on the road. Since 2022, he has a 3.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP at home and 4.15/1.19 WHIP on the road.
Freddy Peralta has always been a guy who strikes out a ton but walks too many. He gets pulled early in games from high-pitch counts. But he's been solid in his last six starts with a 2.25 ERA, but a 1.34 WHIP (again, the walks kill him), 25:15 K:BB and 4.2 BB:9.
We get the Brewers at a very nice price here at home. I will back them in this spot. I also like there to be some runs in this game with Nola's struggles on the road and Peralta issuing too many free passes. The total of 7.5 is deflated based on the name value of both starting pitchers.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Brewers
- Brewers ML for 1 Unit (-112 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Phillies/Brewers Over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Blue Jays ML for 1 Unit (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cardinals -1.5 for 1 unit (+112 BetRivers)
- Brewers ML for 1 unit (-112 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Phillies/Brewers Over 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
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